This is part 14 of a 32-part preview.
Standings:
Vermont 15-1
UMBC 12-4
Hartford 11-5
Albany 10-6
Stony Brook 7-9
New Hampshire 6-10
UMass-Lowell 6-10
Maine 3-13
Format:
March 3, 6, and 10. Better seed hosts each time. Travel away!
Matchups:
1) Vermont vs. 8) Maine
4) Albany vs. 5) Stony Brook
3) Hartford vs. 6) New Hampshire
2) UMBC vs. 7) UMass-Lowell
The stakes:
A-East is usually pretty bad, this year they're okay at 23 CRPI. UMBC, Hartford, Albany are in CBI/CIT range and/or 15 seed range, blah blah blah.
Vermont is the thing to talk about. Holding onto a top 50 RPI, and played 4 Group 1 games in the non-con. Unfortunately, lost them all. Non-con SoS was 88, and that's an unlucky 88. They traveled a bunch. Roadies at Kentucky, Bucknell, Marquette, Northeastern, neutral at Bonaventure....but they didn't win any of those. Did poach N-NKU, @Harvard, and ran up 15 road/neutral wins. They can easily push into the 12 line with those metrics, because the committee likes to see those things. My money is on the 13 line. Basically what I'm saying is, don't blindly pay attention to conference RPI and seed them on the 15 line, or even 14 line. They're better than that.
Friday, March 2, 2018
CAA conference tournament preview
This is part 13 of a 32-part series.
Standings:
Charleston 14-4
Northeastern 14-4
Hofstra 12-6
William & Mary 11-7
Towson 8-10
UNC-Wilmington 7-11
Elon 6-12
Delaware 6-12
Drexel 6-12
James Madison 6-12
Format:
March 3-6. Charleston is the host. Hmm
Matchups:
1) Charleston vs. 8/9) Drexel/James Madison
4) William & Mary vs. 5) Towson
3) Hofstra vs. 6) UNC-Wilmington
2) Northeastern vs. 7/10) Delaware/Elon
The stakes:
Conference RPI 12. Down just a bit from previous years, but still pretty strong. The bottom of the conference was the issue this year with their slide.
But yet again, they are just good enough to just miss being relevant in the at-large race. Northeastern did at least try to schedule up and give themselves chances, but didn't cash in on any of them. Charleston didn't do anything with their non-con.
So in the end, it feels like the 13 line is the destination for this conference champ, unless we get someone funny winning this. Northeastern actually has a very good shot at the 12 line, but Charleston, Hofstra, and Bill & Mary are safe bets for the 13 line. Actually, I wonder about Northeastern and a potential NIT at-large bid (Charleston has the autobid). Further down, Towson is CIT eligible if you care about that.
Standings:
Charleston 14-4
Northeastern 14-4
Hofstra 12-6
William & Mary 11-7
Towson 8-10
UNC-Wilmington 7-11
Elon 6-12
Delaware 6-12
Drexel 6-12
James Madison 6-12
Format:
March 3-6. Charleston is the host. Hmm
Matchups:
1) Charleston vs. 8/9) Drexel/James Madison
4) William & Mary vs. 5) Towson
3) Hofstra vs. 6) UNC-Wilmington
2) Northeastern vs. 7/10) Delaware/Elon
The stakes:
Conference RPI 12. Down just a bit from previous years, but still pretty strong. The bottom of the conference was the issue this year with their slide.
But yet again, they are just good enough to just miss being relevant in the at-large race. Northeastern did at least try to schedule up and give themselves chances, but didn't cash in on any of them. Charleston didn't do anything with their non-con.
So in the end, it feels like the 13 line is the destination for this conference champ, unless we get someone funny winning this. Northeastern actually has a very good shot at the 12 line, but Charleston, Hofstra, and Bill & Mary are safe bets for the 13 line. Actually, I wonder about Northeastern and a potential NIT at-large bid (Charleston has the autobid). Further down, Towson is CIT eligible if you care about that.
Summit League conference tournament preview
This is part 12 of a 32-part series.
Standings:
South Dakota St 13-1
South Dakota 11-3
Denver 8-6
Fort Wayne 7-7
North Dakota St 5-9
Oral Roberts 5-9
Omaha 4-10
Western Illinois 3-11
Format:
March 3-6. Sioux Falls hosts again.
Matchups:
1) South Dakota St vs. 8) Western Illinois
4) Fort Wayne vs. 5) North Dakota St
2) South Dakota vs. 7) Omaha
3) Denver vs. 6) Oral Roberts
The stakes:
The league is CRPI 17. South Dakota St is sporting a rather healthy 52 RPI, albeit lacking the signature win that would take their resume up a level. Add it all up, and a 13 seed is possible, and if we get regular attrition in other conference tourneys, probable. South Dakota is in good shape as well...everyone else would be sent careening towards Dayton. This is a step down for the conference as a whole compared to previous years, when they usually had a team or two creep up to the edge of the 12 line.
The conference lacks depth; only IPFW outside of the top 2 are in good shape for a CBI/CIT. South Dakota St and South Dakota have been the class of the league all year long; both are in good shape to at least avoid the 15 line.
Standings:
South Dakota St 13-1
South Dakota 11-3
Denver 8-6
Fort Wayne 7-7
North Dakota St 5-9
Oral Roberts 5-9
Omaha 4-10
Western Illinois 3-11
Format:
March 3-6. Sioux Falls hosts again.
Matchups:
1) South Dakota St vs. 8) Western Illinois
4) Fort Wayne vs. 5) North Dakota St
2) South Dakota vs. 7) Omaha
3) Denver vs. 6) Oral Roberts
The stakes:
The league is CRPI 17. South Dakota St is sporting a rather healthy 52 RPI, albeit lacking the signature win that would take their resume up a level. Add it all up, and a 13 seed is possible, and if we get regular attrition in other conference tourneys, probable. South Dakota is in good shape as well...everyone else would be sent careening towards Dayton. This is a step down for the conference as a whole compared to previous years, when they usually had a team or two creep up to the edge of the 12 line.
The conference lacks depth; only IPFW outside of the top 2 are in good shape for a CBI/CIT. South Dakota St and South Dakota have been the class of the league all year long; both are in good shape to at least avoid the 15 line.
West Coast Conference tournament preview
This is part 11 of a 32-part series.
Standings:
Gonzaga 17-1
St Mary's 16-2
BYU 11-7
San Diego 9-9
San Francisco 9-9
Pacific 9-9
Santa Clara 8-10
Loyola Marymount 5-13
Portland 4-14
Pepperdine 2-16
Format:
March 2-6. Neutral site in Las Vegas, which annually hosts about 375 D1 conference tournaments.
Matchups:
1) Gonzaga vs. 8/9) Loyola Marymount/Portland
4) San Francisco vs. 5) Pacific
3) BYU vs. 6) San Diego
2) St Mary's vs. 7/10) Santa Clara/Pepperdine
The stakes:
Gonzaga is merely playing for seeding, with a pretty wide possibility from 5 to 9, IMO. It will largely depend on what other teams seeded around them do in the next week, whether or not they pick up signature wins.
I think St Mary's is home free. The non-con SoS of 180 is juuuuust good enough, and while there's not much meat in the resume....they mostly avoided bad losses (neutral site to Wazzu notwithstanding) that I think they'll survive into the at-large field somewhere. It's not like the bubble is teeming with solid candidates at the moment.
With those two things out in the open, there's not much drama going on here. I suppose BYU as a NIT bubble team if you like that drama. They might even be out, as 3 conference losses outside of the big two might be too many. San Diego and San Francisco are merely CIT fodder this year. And this conference is well down, which is hurting the profiles of Gonzaga and St Mary's. However, since they lost a combined once to the rest of the conference, I don't think the committee will punish them as much as most people think.
Standings:
Gonzaga 17-1
St Mary's 16-2
BYU 11-7
San Diego 9-9
San Francisco 9-9
Pacific 9-9
Santa Clara 8-10
Loyola Marymount 5-13
Portland 4-14
Pepperdine 2-16
Format:
March 2-6. Neutral site in Las Vegas, which annually hosts about 375 D1 conference tournaments.
Matchups:
1) Gonzaga vs. 8/9) Loyola Marymount/Portland
4) San Francisco vs. 5) Pacific
3) BYU vs. 6) San Diego
2) St Mary's vs. 7/10) Santa Clara/Pepperdine
The stakes:
Gonzaga is merely playing for seeding, with a pretty wide possibility from 5 to 9, IMO. It will largely depend on what other teams seeded around them do in the next week, whether or not they pick up signature wins.
I think St Mary's is home free. The non-con SoS of 180 is juuuuust good enough, and while there's not much meat in the resume....they mostly avoided bad losses (neutral site to Wazzu notwithstanding) that I think they'll survive into the at-large field somewhere. It's not like the bubble is teeming with solid candidates at the moment.
With those two things out in the open, there's not much drama going on here. I suppose BYU as a NIT bubble team if you like that drama. They might even be out, as 3 conference losses outside of the big two might be too many. San Diego and San Francisco are merely CIT fodder this year. And this conference is well down, which is hurting the profiles of Gonzaga and St Mary's. However, since they lost a combined once to the rest of the conference, I don't think the committee will punish them as much as most people think.
Thursday, March 1, 2018
Horizon league tournament preview
This is part 10 of a 32-part series.
Standings:
Northern Kentucky 15-3
Wright St 14-4
UIC 12-6
Oakland 10-8
Milwaukee 8-10
IUPUI 8-10
Green Bay 7-11
Cleveland St 6-12
Youngstown St 6-12
Detroit 4-14
Format:
March 2-6. Neutral site in Detroit. Bracket is straightforward despite splitting up a round across a couple days.
Matchups:
1) Northern Kentucky vs. 8/9) Cleveland St/Youngstown St
4) Oakland vs. 5) IUPUI
3) UIC vs. 6) Milwaukee
2) Wright St vs. 7/10) Green Bay/Detroit
The stakes:
Much lower than usual for the conference. They plummeted all the way to CRPI 26. That is such a massive drop for this league, and their seed will be punished as a result. Highly likely to wind up on the 15 line, with modest hopes to getting to the 14 line. NKU and WSU really don't have much going on in their resume. Everyone else might (well, probably, not might) end up in Dayton if they win this tournament. It's a bleak outlook for a conference used to playing a weight class or two above this. And only the top 4 teams are above .500 overall, and I'm not even sure why the CIT or CBI would even want Oakland or UIC at this point.
Standings:
Northern Kentucky 15-3
Wright St 14-4
UIC 12-6
Oakland 10-8
Milwaukee 8-10
IUPUI 8-10
Green Bay 7-11
Cleveland St 6-12
Youngstown St 6-12
Detroit 4-14
Format:
March 2-6. Neutral site in Detroit. Bracket is straightforward despite splitting up a round across a couple days.
Matchups:
1) Northern Kentucky vs. 8/9) Cleveland St/Youngstown St
4) Oakland vs. 5) IUPUI
3) UIC vs. 6) Milwaukee
2) Wright St vs. 7/10) Green Bay/Detroit
The stakes:
Much lower than usual for the conference. They plummeted all the way to CRPI 26. That is such a massive drop for this league, and their seed will be punished as a result. Highly likely to wind up on the 15 line, with modest hopes to getting to the 14 line. NKU and WSU really don't have much going on in their resume. Everyone else might (well, probably, not might) end up in Dayton if they win this tournament. It's a bleak outlook for a conference used to playing a weight class or two above this. And only the top 4 teams are above .500 overall, and I'm not even sure why the CIT or CBI would even want Oakland or UIC at this point.
SoCon conference tournament preview
This is part 9 of a 32-part series.
Standings:
UNC-Greensboro 15-3
East Tennessee St 14-4
Furman 13-5
Wofford 11-7
Mercer 11-7
Western Carolina 8-10
Samford 6-12
The Citadel 5-13
VMI 4-14
Chattanooga 3-15
Format:
Nice and simple, 4 straight days from March 2-5. Asheville as a neutral host.
Matchups:
1) UNC-Greensboro vs. 8/9) Citadel/VMI
4) Mercer vs. 5) Wofford
3) Furman vs. 6) Western Carolina
2) East Tennessee St vs. 7/10) Samford/Chattanooga
The stakes:
CRPI 16, with 3 teams just tucking themselves inside the RPI Top 100. This should mean, in general, a 13 or 14 seed for the conference barring something oblong happening in the next week.
ETSU was actually in decent shape but punted 4 out of their last 5 games to lose the conference. There wasn't an at-large resume in place before that, though. But it does cost them a possible NIT bid; none of these teams are good enough to get an at-large to that tourney. UNCG has a win at NC State and Wofford at UNC, which could be worth a seed line to the committee if things break right.
As is rather evident from the standings, top 5 are CIT-eligible. As none of them are NIT-worthy, we'll see how many of them play.
Standings:
UNC-Greensboro 15-3
East Tennessee St 14-4
Furman 13-5
Wofford 11-7
Mercer 11-7
Western Carolina 8-10
Samford 6-12
The Citadel 5-13
VMI 4-14
Chattanooga 3-15
Format:
Nice and simple, 4 straight days from March 2-5. Asheville as a neutral host.
Matchups:
1) UNC-Greensboro vs. 8/9) Citadel/VMI
4) Mercer vs. 5) Wofford
3) Furman vs. 6) Western Carolina
2) East Tennessee St vs. 7/10) Samford/Chattanooga
The stakes:
CRPI 16, with 3 teams just tucking themselves inside the RPI Top 100. This should mean, in general, a 13 or 14 seed for the conference barring something oblong happening in the next week.
ETSU was actually in decent shape but punted 4 out of their last 5 games to lose the conference. There wasn't an at-large resume in place before that, though. But it does cost them a possible NIT bid; none of these teams are good enough to get an at-large to that tourney. UNCG has a win at NC State and Wofford at UNC, which could be worth a seed line to the committee if things break right.
As is rather evident from the standings, top 5 are CIT-eligible. As none of them are NIT-worthy, we'll see how many of them play.
2/28 recap
@Xavier 84, Providence 74
Villanova 69, @Seton Hall 68
@St John's 75, Butler 68 (2OT) - Butler's given away some seed equity in BE play this year
@Clemson 76, Florida St 63 - all of a sudden, all these other ACC teams bagging signature wins means FSU is slipping down the board
@Notre Dame 73, Pitt 56 - is UND live on the bubble? It's not impossible
@Boston College 85, Syracuse 70 - possibly fatal
@Kentucky 96, Ole Miss 78
@South Carolina 83, LSU 74 (OT)
Texas A&M 61, @Georgia 60 - ok, that's definitely lockbox for A&M and endgame for Georgia
Houston 69, @SMU 56
@UConn 72, Temple 66 - I can't wait for the NIT to invite a sub .500 AAC team
Nevada 101, @UNLV 75
Big 10 1st round:
Iowa 96, Illinois 87
Rutgers 65, Minnesota 54
NEC quarters:
LIU 73, St Francis(BKN) 50
Fairleigh Dickinson 84, St Francis(PA) 75 - upset
Robert Morris 60, Mt St Mary's 56 - upset, and the NEC bracket has been torn asunder
Wagner 73, CCSU 61 - but the top seed held
OVC 1st round:
Tennessee Tech 60, SIU-E 51
Eastern Illinois 73, Tennessee St 71
Villanova 69, @Seton Hall 68
@St John's 75, Butler 68 (2OT) - Butler's given away some seed equity in BE play this year
@Clemson 76, Florida St 63 - all of a sudden, all these other ACC teams bagging signature wins means FSU is slipping down the board
@Notre Dame 73, Pitt 56 - is UND live on the bubble? It's not impossible
@Boston College 85, Syracuse 70 - possibly fatal
@Kentucky 96, Ole Miss 78
@South Carolina 83, LSU 74 (OT)
Texas A&M 61, @Georgia 60 - ok, that's definitely lockbox for A&M and endgame for Georgia
Houston 69, @SMU 56
@UConn 72, Temple 66 - I can't wait for the NIT to invite a sub .500 AAC team
Nevada 101, @UNLV 75
Big 10 1st round:
Iowa 96, Illinois 87
Rutgers 65, Minnesota 54
NEC quarters:
LIU 73, St Francis(BKN) 50
Fairleigh Dickinson 84, St Francis(PA) 75 - upset
Robert Morris 60, Mt St Mary's 56 - upset, and the NEC bracket has been torn asunder
Wagner 73, CCSU 61 - but the top seed held
OVC 1st round:
Tennessee Tech 60, SIU-E 51
Eastern Illinois 73, Tennessee St 71
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