A-East
Conference title race:
Stony Brook (15-4) (8-0) RPI 55 SoS 196 – Clearly the class of the
conference, and have (for them) quality wins over Princeton and Hofstra. The RPI is inflated, but will still help them
in March.
Albany (16-6) (6-2) RPI 103 SoS 275 – They’ve already lost to SBU, so
the race is essentially over.
EIEIO/Vegas watch:
Vermont (12-10) (5-3) RPI 164 SoS 205
New Hampshire (10-9) (5-3) RPI 198 SoS 303 – Both teams are probably
bubble teams for the postseason.
No postseason:
UMass-Lowell (6-14, 3-5) is still transitioning. The others are below or around RPI 300: Maine (8-13, 4-4), Hartford (6-16, 2-6),
Binghamton (5-16, 2-6), and UMBC (5-18, 1-7).
A-Sun
Conference title race:
North Florida (15-6) (7-0) RPI 101 SoS 265 – I’m not even going to list
a second team. UNF is clearly the best
in this conference. They beat Illinois
which may be enough to get it off the 16 line.
Everyone else would be headed to Dayton.
EIEIO/Vegas watch:
NJIT (11-11) (3-4) RPI 193 SoS 228 – Hey, not bad for them!
No postseason:
I’m listing them under here, but both Jacksonville (9-11, 5-2) and FGCU
(9-10, 4-3) have a good shot at getting over .500. Their computer numbers are horrid, but that
hasn’t stopped the CIT before. The
bottom four, though, are truly out of it:
Lipscomb (5-17, 3-4), South Carolina Upstate (5-15, 2-5), Stetson (4-15,
2-5) (who is APR’d anyways), Kennesaw St (4-17, 2-5).
Big Sky
Conference title race:
Montana (10-7) (8-1) RPI 137 SoS 222 – Actually has a non-con SoS of
28, and beat Boise. Better than your average 16 seed.
Weber St (12-6) (7-1) RPI 156 SoS 297 – Not as great.
EIEIO/Vegas watch:
Idaho (11-9) (5-4) RPI 204 SoS 306 – Pretty bad sign when I have to
stretch this far just to find a third team from the conference to list.
No postseason:
It’s a large mass of blah here.
Only two teams above RPI 200 in the entire conference. Idaho St (8-10, 5-3) and Eastern Washington
(9-10, 5-4) might get above .500 and get them some postseason, but who
knows. Sacramento St (7-10, 2-6)
actually won at Arizona St, but is otherwise hopeless. Also futile:
North Dakota (7-10, 5-4), Northern Colorado (6-13, 5-4), Montana St
(8-12, 4-5), Portland St (5-12, 3-5), Southern Utah (3-15, 2-7), and Northern
Arizona (1-17, 1-8).
Big South
Conference title race:
Winthrop (13-6) (8-3) RPI 162 SoS 329
UNC-Asheville (13-8) (8-3) RPI 151 SoS 255
High Point (11-7) (7-3) RPI 176 SoS 318 – This is a pretty wide-open
conference and there’s little differentiating between all the teams. This is one of those scenarios where it won’t
matter who wins as far as bracketing purposes go.
EIEIO/Vegas watch:
Coastal Carolina (10-8) (7-4) RPI 193 SoS 271
Radford (11-10) (6-5) RPI 159 SoS 180
No postseason:
The bottom half of the conference is its usual bad self, and the Big
South is in the crossfire of Dayton as a result: Gardner Webb (8-12, 6-5), Liberty (6-15,
6-5), Charleston Southern (5-14, 4-7), Presbyterian (5-13, 3-7), Longwood
(3-17, 2-8), Campbell (6-13, 2-9).
Big West
Conference title race:
UC-Irvine (15-6) (6-1) RPI 72 SoS 132
Hawaii (14-3) (5-1) RPI 122 SoS 252 – The conference’s RPI is healthy,
and the results for the top two here are manageable. Hawaii beat UNI, Nevada, and Auburn, Irvine
scheduled up and beat @Utah St, NMSU and BC.
No postseason:
It’s much trickier to guess who else will make the postseason from this
conference. There are two teams with sub-100
RPIs, but they’re kinda under .500 overall, which is an obvious problem. Long Beach St (9-12, 5-3) owns the #1 non-con
SoS in the country, and beat BYU and N-Seton Hall and @Colorado St and NMSU…but
lost to many other great teams. If they
can crawl to .500 they’re a lock for a bid, and still might get a Vegas
bid. UC-Santa Barbara (8-11, 3-4) has
the #8 non-con SoS, but a couple in-conference losses might doom them. UC-Riverside (11-11, 4-4) has a chance of
staying at .500. The other 4 are in varying
states of hopelessness: UC-Davis (7-11,
4-3), Cal Poly (8-11, 3-4), Cal St-Northridge (5-14, 2-5), and Cal St-Fullerton
(6-12, 1-6).
CAA
Conference title race:
UNC-Wilmington (14-5) (8-2) RPI 92 SoS 219
Hofstra (15-6) (8-2) RPI 70 SoS 126
Towson (14-7) (7-3) RPI 178 SoS 324
James Madison (15-7) (6-4) RPI 98 SoS 128
William & Mary (13-6) (7-3) RPI 38 SoS 85 – This might be the best
multi-team race of the season. This
conference as a whole had a renaissance in the non-con, and they’re all reaping
the benefits of each other now. W&M
has the shiny RPI, and did win at NC State, but otherwise the profile is
marginal, so don’t overreact. Heck,
Hofstra beat FSU and St Bonaventure. The
other 3 have more marginal profiles, which might prevent a 13 seed, though. Towson in particular has some issues.
EIEIO/Vegas watch:
Charleston (12-8) (5-5) RPI 95 SoS 116 – As you can see, the conference
was deep with decent teams this year.
Elon (11-10) (4-6) RPI 116 SoS 94
Northeastern (11-11) (3-6) RPI 137 SoS 116 – They beat @Miami and
appear to have let it gone to waste.
No postseason:
One of the big keys to the CAA’s ascension this year is the lack of
teams in this region. Every non-bad team
stepped up and won a lot in the non-con and built decent computer profiles. Only the two knowingly bad teams, Drexel
(3-17, 1-9) and Delaware (5-16, 0-10) are in this range. Getting everyone else to rise up has been key
to gaming the RPI system this year. It
will pay off in their seed, although not in the form of an at-large bid.
CUSA
Conference title race:
UAB (17-4) (8-1) RPI 106 SoS 298 – Their non-con SoS is in the 300s,
which is why they’re a non-starter in the bubble talk. MTSU is their signature win, and they lost to
Auburn and Illinois. Can’t stay in the
race with that.
Middle Tennessee (13-6) (7-2) RPI 79 SoS 132
Marshall (11-11) (7-2) RPI 141 SoS 105
EIEIO/Vegas watch:
Louisiana Tech (14-5) (5-3) RPI 135 SoS 296
Old Dominion (12-10) (5-4) RPI 159 SoS 151 – Meh to both of them.
No postseason:
CUSA is not in the top 20 of the CRPI.
8 of their 14 teams reside below RPI 200. That’s just simply unacceptable. UTEP (10-11, 3-6) is way down this year. Southern Miss (6-11, 4-4) is vacuuming
conference wins while being ineligible. FIU
(9-11, 5-4) and Western Kentucky (9-11, 3-6) might be postseason eligible, but
why anyone would want them is beyond me.
There’s just a lot of poor situations up and down the line. Others:
Charlotte (7-14, 4-5), Florida Atlantic (5-15, 4-5), Rice (5-14, 2-6),
North Texas (5-14, 2-6), and UTSA (3-17, 2-7).
Ivy
Conference title race:
Yale (12-5) (4-0) RPI 82 SoS 180
Columbia (13-6) (4-0) RPI 131 SoS 218
Princeton (11-5) (2-1) RPI 62 SoS 140 – It’ll probably be between these
3, although there’s a long way to go in the race because of their annual late start. No one really has a signature win OOC to help
their seed in March, though.
No postseason:
In previous years, the Ivy had done pretty okay OOC to help the seed of
their conference champs. Not as much
this year. Cornell (8-9, 2-2) and
Harvard (7-11, 1-3) at least have tolerable RPIs. Dartmouth (6-11, 1-3), Brown (5-12, 1-3), and
Penn (5-11, 0-3) are all sub-300 in the RPI and will actively harm the leaders.
MAC
Conference title race:
Akron (16-4) (6-2) RPI 63 SoS 198
Kent St (14-6) (6-2) RPI 84 SoS 144 – Plenty of teams still have a
chance, as illustrated by the fact no one’s done better than 6-2 so far. But for now we’ll list these two. The MAC is having a good RPI season, but
neither of these two teams have the signature win they need to make it to the
12 line.
EIEIO/Vegas watch:
Buffalo (11-9) (5-3) RPI 99 SoS 105
Ohio (12-7) (4-4) RPI 94 SoS 113
Northern Illinois (12-5) (5-3) RPI 104 SoS 240
Central Michigan (9-9) (5-3) RPI 145 SoS 111
Ball St (12-8) (4-4) RPI 182 SoS 250 – Has the conference’s signature
win, over Valpo.
No postseason:
I have to predict some of the MAC teams to fall below .500 overall, so
I’ll call Bowling Green (11-8, 4-4) and Toledo (11-9, 3-5) for those
purposes. One of the secrets to the
MAC’s success this year: the lowest RPI
team is at 228 in Miami(OH) (6-14, 1-7).
Western Michigan (7-12, 3-5) and Eastern Michigan (6-11, 2-6) are also
down but not actively harming the conference.
Well done.
MEAC
Conference title race:
Hampton (12-8) (8-1) RPI 189 SoS 326 – They’re the only team here above
.500 overall so I’m not even listing a second team here, you can’t make
me. The SWAC is beating the MEAC this
year, so that’s all you need to know.
No postseason:
South Carolina St (10-11, 7-2) will probably make it over .500, and who
knows, maybe Norfolk St (8-13, 6-2) and Howard (7-11, 3-2) can too, although
the worthiness of every team is very much in question. Florida A&M (4-14, 2-5) is APR’d, and
everyone else is terrible:
Bethune-Cookman (5-15, 4-4), UMES (5-16, 3-4), Coppin St (3-15, 3-4),
Savannah St (6-12, 3-5), Morgan St (3-15, 2-4), Delaware St (2-17, 2-4), North
Carolina A&T (6-16, 3-6), and North Carolina Central (4-14, 2-5).
NEC
Conference title race:
Wagner (13-7) (7-3) RPI 203 SoS 346
Fairleigh Dickinson (10-10) (7-3) RPI 223 SoS 308
Mount St Mary’s (10-13) (7-3) RPI 247 SoS 288 – No one in the
conference is sub-200 in the RPI, and no one has a top 150 win. Whoever wins is guaranteed to be in Dayton.
No postseason:
St Francis(PA) (9-11, 6-4), might be eligible, along with the above
three, but that’s about it here.
Everyone else is sub-275 in the RPI:
St Francis(NY) (8-14, 5-5), Sacred Heart (6-15, 5-5), Long Island
(10-11, 4-6), Bryant (6-16, 4-6), Robert Morris (6-17, 4-6), and Central
Connecticut St (2-19, 1-9).
OVC
Conference title race:
Belmont (15-7) (8-1) RPI 85 SoS 183 – They’re obviously the class of
the conference and beat Valpo. Their
ceiling is much higher than everyone else, who is looking at the 15 or maybe 16
line. Belmont can get to the 13 line.
Tennessee Tech (14-7) (8-2) RPI 117 SoS 234 – Did beat Belmont.
EIEIO/Vegas watch:
Tennessee St (13-6) (6-2) RPI 166 SoS 340
Morehead St (11-9) (6-3) RPI 174 SoS 236
No postseason:
Perhaps the surprise is Murray St (9-11, 5-4) being down here. The top 4 teams are in the east division, and
it’ll cost Eastern Kentucky (11-12, 3-6) a postseason spot as they’re trapped
in the tougher division. Eastern
Illinois (8-13, 6-4) leads the west but still probably won’t make the postseason. Irrelevant teams: Jacksonville St (6-17, 4-6), Tennessee-Martin
(9-12, 3-5), Austin Peay (8-14, 3-6), SE Missouri St (3-17, 2-7), and
SIU-Edwardsville (4-18, 1-9).
Patriot
Conference title race:
Bucknell (11-9) (9-1) RPI 173 SoS 202 – Here’s another conference where
I’m not even listing a second team.
Bucknell had a rough non-con losing many swing games (Siena, Penn St,
Columbia, Princeton, et al). As you can
see, not awful teams, but not great either.
Hi, 16 line.
EIEIO/Vegas watch:
Navy (14-7) (6-3) RPI 177 SoS 321
Boston (11-11) (5-5) RPI 221 SoS 316
Army (11-9) (3-6) RPI 214 SoS 333 – Yeah, these aren’t impressive
resumes in this league this year.
No postseason:
I guess Colgate (9-11, 6-4) can get over .500 for the CIT, but
otherwise there isn’t much going on here.
Among the failures: Loyola(MD)
(6-14, 5-4), Lehigh (5-14, 4-5), Holy Cross (9-12, 4-6), American (5-15, 3-6,
and Lafayette (5-15, 2-7)
Southland
Conference title race:
Stephen F Austin (11-5) (8-0) RPI 143 SoS 309 – This is the team you’d
think might have a shot, but scheduled up and lost all the big games.
Houston Baptist (10-7) (8-0) RPI 200 SoS 336
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (14-4) (7-1) RPI 141 SoS 335 – As you can
see, it’s going to take a lot for this conference to avoid the 16 line this
year. Garbage schedules are everywhere
in this conference. A win over Elon
represents the entirety of the conference’s top 175 wins.
No postseason:
Everyone else is hopeless.
Incarnate Word (7-7, 5-2) can finish above .500 but are still in D-1
transition (actually, the CIT could take them).
Sam Houston St (8-10, 6-3) can get there. Everyone else is out: New Orleans (4-12, 3-5), McNeese St (3-12,
3-5), Lamar (6-11, 2-7), Northwestern St (2-13, 2-7), SE Louisiana (1-17, 1-6),
Nicholls St (2-17, 1-7). Abilene
Christian (5-12, 4-4) is still transitioning and Central Arkansas (3-14, 2-5)
is APR’d.
Summit
Conference title race:
South Dakota St (16-5) (7-2) RPI 39 SoS 141 – Can you make the case
this is a true bubble team? Eh. The 3 top 100 wins are IPFW, MTSU, and
UCSB. Can’t do it. Game effort, though.
IPFW (16-6) (7-2) RPI 80 SoS 175 – Probably not a NIT team.
Omaha (13-8) (7-2) RPI 119 SoS 174
IUPUI (10-13) (7-2) RPI 160 SoS 146 – This has the potential to be a
fun conference race to watch. IUPUI is
the clear outlier; the other 3 should climb out of the 16 and 15 lines, at
least.
EIEIO/Vegas watch:
North Dakota St (12-8) (4-4) RPI 136 SoS 216 – Meanwhile, I’m surprised
this team is off the pace.
Denver (11-11) (3-6) RPI 210 SoS 220
No postseason:
It’s been a banner year for the Summit, up to 11th in the
CRPI. IPFW and Omaha and others have
done good. Even Oral Roberts (9-12, 3-6)
and South Dakota (9-13, 2-7) are sub-200 RPI helping everyone out. The only real failure is Western Illinois
(4-13, 0-9). This is going to help the
seed of the conference in particular.
South Dakota St in particular will be tough to predict, given their RPI.
SWAC
Conference title race:
Texas Southern (9-11) (8-0) RPI 211 SoS 291
Southern (12-7) (7-2) RPI 184 SoS 343 – Southern actually beat
Mississippi St. And the conference is
ranked #31! Not #32! Not last!
Won’t help any of their teams avoid the play-in game this year, but
still.
No postseason:
Well, Jackson St (9-10, 6-2) will probably get eligible, but I’m not
sure there’s enough room for a third SWAC postseason team. Alcorn St (6-12, 6-3) is ineligible so it
won’t matter if they get there. Everyone
else is below .500 in everything and in various levels of irrelevance. Alabama A&M (6-10, 3-5), Arkansas-Pine
Bluff (5-17, 3-5), Grambling (3-14, 3-5), Mississippi Valley St (3-19, 3-5),
Alabama St (4-14, 1-7), and Prairie View A&M (1-19, 1-7).
WAC
Conference title race:
New Mexico St (13-8) (6-1) RPI 146 SoS 208 – Not a good non-con for them,
so they’re heading to the 16 line.
Cal St-Bakersfield (12-7) (5-2) RPI 149 SoS 295
No postseason:
Actually, Grand Canyon (18-3, 6-1) is ineligible for the NIT but is
plenty eligible for the CIT, so look for that.
Everyone else is out of the picture, including Seattle (8-11, 4-3), Utah
Valley (6-13, 3-4), UMKC (6-13, 2-5), UTRGV (3-16, 2-5), and Chicago St (1-20,
0-7).
