Monday, February 1, 2016

Bubble watch part 5: One-bid leagues

A-East

Conference title race:
Stony Brook (15-4) (8-0) RPI 55 SoS 196 – Clearly the class of the conference, and have (for them) quality wins over Princeton and Hofstra.  The RPI is inflated, but will still help them in March.
Albany (16-6) (6-2) RPI 103 SoS 275 – They’ve already lost to SBU, so the race is essentially over.

EIEIO/Vegas watch:
Vermont (12-10) (5-3) RPI 164 SoS 205
New Hampshire (10-9) (5-3) RPI 198 SoS 303 – Both teams are probably bubble teams for the postseason.

No postseason:
UMass-Lowell (6-14, 3-5) is still transitioning.  The others are below or around RPI 300:  Maine (8-13, 4-4), Hartford (6-16, 2-6), Binghamton (5-16, 2-6), and UMBC (5-18, 1-7).

A-Sun

Conference title race:
North Florida (15-6) (7-0) RPI 101 SoS 265 – I’m not even going to list a second team.  UNF is clearly the best in this conference.  They beat Illinois which may be enough to get it off the 16 line.  Everyone else would be headed to Dayton.

EIEIO/Vegas watch:
NJIT (11-11) (3-4) RPI 193 SoS 228 – Hey, not bad for them!

No postseason:
I’m listing them under here, but both Jacksonville (9-11, 5-2) and FGCU (9-10, 4-3) have a good shot at getting over .500.  Their computer numbers are horrid, but that hasn’t stopped the CIT before.  The bottom four, though, are truly out of it:  Lipscomb (5-17, 3-4), South Carolina Upstate (5-15, 2-5), Stetson (4-15, 2-5) (who is APR’d anyways), Kennesaw St (4-17, 2-5).

Big Sky

Conference title race:
Montana (10-7) (8-1) RPI 137 SoS 222 – Actually has a non-con SoS of 28, and beat Boise. Better than your average 16 seed.
Weber St (12-6) (7-1) RPI 156 SoS 297 – Not as great.

EIEIO/Vegas watch:
Idaho (11-9) (5-4) RPI 204 SoS 306 – Pretty bad sign when I have to stretch this far just to find a third team from the conference to list.

No postseason:
It’s a large mass of blah here.  Only two teams above RPI 200 in the entire conference.  Idaho St (8-10, 5-3) and Eastern Washington (9-10, 5-4) might get above .500 and get them some postseason, but who knows.  Sacramento St (7-10, 2-6) actually won at Arizona St, but is otherwise hopeless.  Also futile:  North Dakota (7-10, 5-4), Northern Colorado (6-13, 5-4), Montana St (8-12, 4-5), Portland St (5-12, 3-5), Southern Utah (3-15, 2-7), and Northern Arizona (1-17, 1-8).

Big South

Conference title race:
Winthrop (13-6) (8-3) RPI 162 SoS 329
UNC-Asheville (13-8) (8-3) RPI 151 SoS 255
High Point (11-7) (7-3) RPI 176 SoS 318 – This is a pretty wide-open conference and there’s little differentiating between all the teams.  This is one of those scenarios where it won’t matter who wins as far as bracketing purposes go.

EIEIO/Vegas watch:
Coastal Carolina (10-8) (7-4) RPI 193 SoS 271
Radford (11-10) (6-5) RPI 159 SoS 180

No postseason:
The bottom half of the conference is its usual bad self, and the Big South is in the crossfire of Dayton as a result:  Gardner Webb (8-12, 6-5), Liberty (6-15, 6-5), Charleston Southern (5-14, 4-7), Presbyterian (5-13, 3-7), Longwood (3-17, 2-8), Campbell (6-13, 2-9).

Big West

Conference title race:
UC-Irvine (15-6) (6-1) RPI 72 SoS 132
Hawaii (14-3) (5-1) RPI 122 SoS 252 – The conference’s RPI is healthy, and the results for the top two here are manageable.  Hawaii beat UNI, Nevada, and Auburn, Irvine scheduled up and beat @Utah St, NMSU and BC.

No postseason:
It’s much trickier to guess who else will make the postseason from this conference.  There are two teams with sub-100 RPIs, but they’re kinda under .500 overall, which is an obvious problem.  Long Beach St (9-12, 5-3) owns the #1 non-con SoS in the country, and beat BYU and N-Seton Hall and @Colorado St and NMSU…but lost to many other great teams.  If they can crawl to .500 they’re a lock for a bid, and still might get a Vegas bid.  UC-Santa Barbara (8-11, 3-4) has the #8 non-con SoS, but a couple in-conference losses might doom them.  UC-Riverside (11-11, 4-4) has a chance of staying at .500.  The other 4 are in varying states of hopelessness:  UC-Davis (7-11, 4-3), Cal Poly (8-11, 3-4), Cal St-Northridge (5-14, 2-5), and Cal St-Fullerton (6-12, 1-6).

CAA

Conference title race:
UNC-Wilmington (14-5) (8-2) RPI 92 SoS 219
Hofstra (15-6) (8-2) RPI 70 SoS 126
Towson (14-7) (7-3) RPI 178 SoS 324
James Madison (15-7) (6-4) RPI 98 SoS 128
William & Mary (13-6) (7-3) RPI 38 SoS 85 – This might be the best multi-team race of the season.  This conference as a whole had a renaissance in the non-con, and they’re all reaping the benefits of each other now.  W&M has the shiny RPI, and did win at NC State, but otherwise the profile is marginal, so don’t overreact.  Heck, Hofstra beat FSU and St Bonaventure.  The other 3 have more marginal profiles, which might prevent a 13 seed, though.  Towson in particular has some issues.

EIEIO/Vegas watch:
Charleston (12-8) (5-5) RPI 95 SoS 116 – As you can see, the conference was deep with decent teams this year. 
Elon (11-10) (4-6) RPI 116 SoS 94
Northeastern (11-11) (3-6) RPI 137 SoS 116 – They beat @Miami and appear to have let it gone to waste.

No postseason:
One of the big keys to the CAA’s ascension this year is the lack of teams in this region.  Every non-bad team stepped up and won a lot in the non-con and built decent computer profiles.  Only the two knowingly bad teams, Drexel (3-17, 1-9) and Delaware (5-16, 0-10) are in this range.  Getting everyone else to rise up has been key to gaming the RPI system this year.  It will pay off in their seed, although not in the form of an at-large bid.

CUSA

Conference title race:
UAB (17-4) (8-1) RPI 106 SoS 298 – Their non-con SoS is in the 300s, which is why they’re a non-starter in the bubble talk.  MTSU is their signature win, and they lost to Auburn and Illinois.  Can’t stay in the race with that.
Middle Tennessee (13-6) (7-2) RPI 79 SoS 132
Marshall (11-11) (7-2) RPI 141 SoS 105

EIEIO/Vegas watch:
Louisiana Tech (14-5) (5-3) RPI 135 SoS 296
Old Dominion (12-10) (5-4) RPI 159 SoS 151 – Meh to both of them.

No postseason:
CUSA is not in the top 20 of the CRPI.  8 of their 14 teams reside below RPI 200.  That’s just simply unacceptable.  UTEP (10-11, 3-6) is way down this year.  Southern Miss (6-11, 4-4) is vacuuming conference wins while being ineligible.  FIU (9-11, 5-4) and Western Kentucky (9-11, 3-6) might be postseason eligible, but why anyone would want them is beyond me.  There’s just a lot of poor situations up and down the line.  Others:  Charlotte (7-14, 4-5), Florida Atlantic (5-15, 4-5), Rice (5-14, 2-6), North Texas (5-14, 2-6), and UTSA (3-17, 2-7).

Ivy

Conference title race:
Yale (12-5) (4-0) RPI 82 SoS 180
Columbia (13-6) (4-0) RPI 131 SoS 218
Princeton (11-5) (2-1) RPI 62 SoS 140 – It’ll probably be between these 3, although there’s a long way to go in the race because of their annual late start.  No one really has a signature win OOC to help their seed in March, though.

No postseason:
In previous years, the Ivy had done pretty okay OOC to help the seed of their conference champs.  Not as much this year.  Cornell (8-9, 2-2) and Harvard (7-11, 1-3) at least have tolerable RPIs.  Dartmouth (6-11, 1-3), Brown (5-12, 1-3), and Penn (5-11, 0-3) are all sub-300 in the RPI and will actively harm the leaders.

MAC

Conference title race:
Akron (16-4) (6-2) RPI 63 SoS 198
Kent St (14-6) (6-2) RPI 84 SoS 144 – Plenty of teams still have a chance, as illustrated by the fact no one’s done better than 6-2 so far.  But for now we’ll list these two.  The MAC is having a good RPI season, but neither of these two teams have the signature win they need to make it to the 12 line. 

EIEIO/Vegas watch:
Buffalo (11-9) (5-3) RPI 99 SoS 105
Ohio (12-7) (4-4) RPI 94 SoS 113
Northern Illinois (12-5) (5-3) RPI 104 SoS 240
Central Michigan (9-9) (5-3) RPI 145 SoS 111
Ball St (12-8) (4-4) RPI 182 SoS 250 – Has the conference’s signature win, over Valpo.

No postseason:
I have to predict some of the MAC teams to fall below .500 overall, so I’ll call Bowling Green (11-8, 4-4) and Toledo (11-9, 3-5) for those purposes.  One of the secrets to the MAC’s success this year:  the lowest RPI team is at 228 in Miami(OH) (6-14, 1-7).  Western Michigan (7-12, 3-5) and Eastern Michigan (6-11, 2-6) are also down but not actively harming the conference.  Well done.

MEAC

Conference title race:
Hampton (12-8) (8-1) RPI 189 SoS 326 – They’re the only team here above .500 overall so I’m not even listing a second team here, you can’t make me.  The SWAC is beating the MEAC this year, so that’s all you need to know.

No postseason:
South Carolina St (10-11, 7-2) will probably make it over .500, and who knows, maybe Norfolk St (8-13, 6-2) and Howard (7-11, 3-2) can too, although the worthiness of every team is very much in question.  Florida A&M (4-14, 2-5) is APR’d, and everyone else is terrible:  Bethune-Cookman (5-15, 4-4), UMES (5-16, 3-4), Coppin St (3-15, 3-4), Savannah St (6-12, 3-5), Morgan St (3-15, 2-4), Delaware St (2-17, 2-4), North Carolina A&T (6-16, 3-6), and North Carolina Central (4-14, 2-5).

NEC

Conference title race:
Wagner (13-7) (7-3) RPI 203 SoS 346
Fairleigh Dickinson (10-10) (7-3) RPI 223 SoS 308
Mount St Mary’s (10-13) (7-3) RPI 247 SoS 288 – No one in the conference is sub-200 in the RPI, and no one has a top 150 win.  Whoever wins is guaranteed to be in Dayton.

No postseason:
St Francis(PA) (9-11, 6-4), might be eligible, along with the above three, but that’s about it here.  Everyone else is sub-275 in the RPI:  St Francis(NY) (8-14, 5-5), Sacred Heart (6-15, 5-5), Long Island (10-11, 4-6), Bryant (6-16, 4-6), Robert Morris (6-17, 4-6), and Central Connecticut St (2-19, 1-9).

OVC

Conference title race:
Belmont (15-7) (8-1) RPI 85 SoS 183 – They’re obviously the class of the conference and beat Valpo.  Their ceiling is much higher than everyone else, who is looking at the 15 or maybe 16 line.  Belmont can get to the 13 line.
Tennessee Tech (14-7) (8-2) RPI 117 SoS 234 – Did beat Belmont.

EIEIO/Vegas watch:
Tennessee St (13-6) (6-2) RPI 166 SoS 340
Morehead St (11-9) (6-3) RPI 174 SoS 236

No postseason:
Perhaps the surprise is Murray St (9-11, 5-4) being down here.  The top 4 teams are in the east division, and it’ll cost Eastern Kentucky (11-12, 3-6) a postseason spot as they’re trapped in the tougher division.  Eastern Illinois (8-13, 6-4) leads the west but still probably won’t make the postseason.  Irrelevant teams:  Jacksonville St (6-17, 4-6), Tennessee-Martin (9-12, 3-5), Austin Peay (8-14, 3-6), SE Missouri St (3-17, 2-7), and SIU-Edwardsville (4-18, 1-9).

Patriot

Conference title race:
Bucknell (11-9) (9-1) RPI 173 SoS 202 – Here’s another conference where I’m not even listing a second team.  Bucknell had a rough non-con losing many swing games (Siena, Penn St, Columbia, Princeton, et al).  As you can see, not awful teams, but not great either.  Hi, 16 line.

EIEIO/Vegas watch:
Navy (14-7) (6-3) RPI 177 SoS 321
Boston (11-11) (5-5) RPI 221 SoS 316
Army (11-9) (3-6) RPI 214 SoS 333 – Yeah, these aren’t impressive resumes in this league this year.

No postseason:
I guess Colgate (9-11, 6-4) can get over .500 for the CIT, but otherwise there isn’t much going on here.  Among the failures:  Loyola(MD) (6-14, 5-4), Lehigh (5-14, 4-5), Holy Cross (9-12, 4-6), American (5-15, 3-6, and Lafayette (5-15, 2-7)

Southland

Conference title race:
Stephen F Austin (11-5) (8-0) RPI 143 SoS 309 – This is the team you’d think might have a shot, but scheduled up and lost all the big games.
Houston Baptist (10-7) (8-0) RPI 200 SoS 336
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (14-4) (7-1) RPI 141 SoS 335 – As you can see, it’s going to take a lot for this conference to avoid the 16 line this year.  Garbage schedules are everywhere in this conference.  A win over Elon represents the entirety of the conference’s top 175 wins.

No postseason:
Everyone else is hopeless.  Incarnate Word (7-7, 5-2) can finish above .500 but are still in D-1 transition (actually, the CIT could take them).  Sam Houston St (8-10, 6-3) can get there.  Everyone else is out:  New Orleans (4-12, 3-5), McNeese St (3-12, 3-5), Lamar (6-11, 2-7), Northwestern St (2-13, 2-7), SE Louisiana (1-17, 1-6), Nicholls St (2-17, 1-7).  Abilene Christian (5-12, 4-4) is still transitioning and Central Arkansas (3-14, 2-5) is APR’d.

Summit

Conference title race:
South Dakota St (16-5) (7-2) RPI 39 SoS 141 – Can you make the case this is a true bubble team?  Eh.  The 3 top 100 wins are IPFW, MTSU, and UCSB.  Can’t do it.  Game effort, though.
IPFW (16-6) (7-2) RPI 80 SoS 175 – Probably not a NIT team.
Omaha (13-8) (7-2) RPI 119 SoS 174
IUPUI (10-13) (7-2) RPI 160 SoS 146 – This has the potential to be a fun conference race to watch.  IUPUI is the clear outlier; the other 3 should climb out of the 16 and 15 lines, at least.

EIEIO/Vegas watch:
North Dakota St (12-8) (4-4) RPI 136 SoS 216 – Meanwhile, I’m surprised this team is off the pace.
Denver (11-11) (3-6) RPI 210 SoS 220

No postseason:
It’s been a banner year for the Summit, up to 11th in the CRPI.  IPFW and Omaha and others have done good.  Even Oral Roberts (9-12, 3-6) and South Dakota (9-13, 2-7) are sub-200 RPI helping everyone out.  The only real failure is Western Illinois (4-13, 0-9).  This is going to help the seed of the conference in particular.  South Dakota St in particular will be tough to predict, given their RPI.

SWAC

Conference title race:
Texas Southern (9-11) (8-0) RPI 211 SoS 291
Southern (12-7) (7-2) RPI 184 SoS 343 – Southern actually beat Mississippi St.  And the conference is ranked #31!  Not #32!  Not last!  Won’t help any of their teams avoid the play-in game this year, but still.

No postseason:
Well, Jackson St (9-10, 6-2) will probably get eligible, but I’m not sure there’s enough room for a third SWAC postseason team.  Alcorn St (6-12, 6-3) is ineligible so it won’t matter if they get there.  Everyone else is below .500 in everything and in various levels of irrelevance.  Alabama A&M (6-10, 3-5), Arkansas-Pine Bluff (5-17, 3-5), Grambling (3-14, 3-5), Mississippi Valley St (3-19, 3-5), Alabama St (4-14, 1-7), and Prairie View A&M (1-19, 1-7).

WAC

Conference title race:
New Mexico St (13-8) (6-1) RPI 146 SoS 208 – Not a good non-con for them, so they’re heading to the 16 line.
Cal St-Bakersfield (12-7) (5-2) RPI 149 SoS 295

No postseason:

Actually, Grand Canyon (18-3, 6-1) is ineligible for the NIT but is plenty eligible for the CIT, so look for that.  Everyone else is out of the picture, including Seattle (8-11, 4-3), Utah Valley (6-13, 3-4), UMKC (6-13, 2-5), UTRGV (3-16, 2-5), and Chicago St (1-20, 0-7).

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