Sunday, March 5, 2017

3/6 S-CURVE

1) I'm caving and ignoring head-to-head with Kentucky and UCLA.  For now.  I've been talked out of it.  But the upcoming results this week will change the order, so whatever.
2) How did Wichita jump 2 seed lines?  A combination of a couple things.  First, they had 2 top 100 wins entering the day; now they have 3.  That win dis-proportionally helps their resume compared to other teams.  And second.  Wichita was an at-large team on the board until today.  As an auto qualifier, I truly do believe the committee will seed them higher than they would seed the same resume attached to an at-large team.  History says they elevate the auto qualifiers a bit.
3) Michigan St is losing steam, but not enough to fall all the way out
4) Boy, the bubble is so bad after URI.  I can't put Illinois or GT in this field right now.  We're at the bottom of the barrel, folks

The 1 line:  Kansas (28-3), Villanova (28-3), Gonzaga (30-1), North Carolina (25-6)
The 2 line:  Oregon (26-4), Louisville (24-7), Baylor (24-6), Kentucky (26-5)
The 3 line:  UCLA (28-3), Arizona (27-4), Florida St (24-7), Florida (24-7)
The 4 line:  Butler (23-7), Duke (23-8), West Virginia (24-7), Purdue (25-6)
The 5 line:  Virginia (21-9), Notre Dame (23-8), Cincinnati (26-4), Minnesota (23-8)
The 6 line:  St Mary's (27-3), SMU (27-4), Creighton (22-8), Maryland (23-7)
The 7 line:  Iowa St (20-10), South Carolina (21-9), Wisconsin (23-8), Oklahoma St (19-11)
The 8 line:  Miami (20-10), Northwestern (21-9), Seton Hall (20-10), Virginia Tech (21-9)
The 9 line:  Wichita St (29-4), Dayton (23-6), Arkansas (23-8), Michigan (20-11)
The 10 line:  VCU (24-7), Providence (20-11), Middle Tennessee (26-4), Xavier (19-12)
The 11 line:  Michigan St (18-13), Syracuse (18-13), Vanderbilt (17-14), Marquette (19-11), Wake Forest (18-12)
The 12 line:  USC (23-8), Kansas St (19-12), Nevada (25-6), UNC-Wilmington (26-5), Texas-Arlington (22-7)
The 13 line:  Vermont (26-5), Akron (23-7), Princeton (20-6), Bucknell (25-8)
The 14 line:  Winthrop (24-6), UNC-Greensboro (22-8), Cal St-Bakersfield (18-8), Iona (21-12)
The 15 line:  South Dakota (20-10), FGCU (23-7), Northern Kentucky (20-10), Texas Southern (20-11)
The 16 line:  UC-Irvine (17-13), Jacksonville St (18-14), Mount St Mary's (18-15), New Orleans (15-11), North Dakota (16-9), North Carolina Central (19-8)

Next 4 in:
Xavier
Michigan St
Syracuse
Vanderbilt

Last 4 in:
Marquette
Wake Forest
USC
Kansas St

Last 4 out:
Rhode Island (21-9)
Illinois St (26-6)
Georgia Tech (16-14)
Illinois (17-13)

Next 4 out:
Houston (21-9)
California (19-11)
Indiana (17-14)
Clemson (16-14)

NIT lines:
The 3 line:  Iowa (18-13), Georgia (17-13), TCU (16-14), Tennessee (15-15)
The 4 line:  Utah (18-10), Ohio St (17-14), Ole Miss (19-12), Monmouth (27-6)
The 5 line:  BYU (22-10), Alabama (17-13), Colorado St (19-10), Charleston (24-8)
---estimated bubble for at large bids somewhere in the 6 line---
The 6 line:  Boise St (18-10), Richmond (19-11), Texas Tech (18-13), Central Florida (20-10)
The 7 line:  St Bonaventure (19-11), Auburn (18-13), Fresno St (17-11), East Tennessee St (24-7)
The 8 line:  New Mexico (17-13), Memphis (19-12), Belmont (21-6), Oakland (22-8)
Last 4 out:  Valparaiso (23-8), UNC-Asheville (21-9), Texas A&M (16-14), Colorado (17-13)

Break it down!:
ACC 10
Big East 7
B1G 7
Big 12 6
SEC 5
Pac-12 4
AAC 2
A-10 2
WCC 2

Top 16 report

MIDWEST 33
1) Kansas @Tulsa
2) Kentucky @Indianapolis
3) Arizona @Salt Lake City
4) Duke @Greenville

SOUTH 33
1) North Carolina @Greenville
2) Baylor @Tulsa
3) UCLA @Sacramento
4) Butler @Milwaukee

WEST 35
1) Gonzaga @Salt Lake City
2) Oregon @Sacramento
3) Florida St @Orlando
4) Purdue @Milwaukee

EAST 35
1) Villanova @Buffalo
2) Louisville @Indianapolis
3) Florida @Orlando
4) West Virginia @Buffalo

Actually didn't have to make any changes to balance out the regionals.  Everything fit pretty well.  Only awkward spot is Florida St, despite being the #3 ACC team, heads to the west.  This is a case where the Pac-12 teams block the more friendly regionals that FSU could go to, and it would cause chaos to attempt to fix the issue so they're stuck.

1 comment:

HenryMuto said...

It's such a shame a team like Monmouth can't get an at large bid with the terribly bubble this year. I agree they can't because they have no big wins but imagine if South Carolina doesn't hit the miracle shot at the buzzer and Monmouth doesn't lose a home game in OT vs Rider.

They would have had only 4 losses and went 19-1 in regular season...but I am sure the committee would have still stiffed them.