The 1 line: Syracuse (18-14), Illinois (17-14), Illinois St (26-6), California (26-6)
The 2 line: Indiana (18-15), Georgia (18-14), Houston (21-10), Clemson (17-15)
The 3 line: Georgia Tech (16-15), TCU (18-15), Iowa (18-14), Alabama (19-13)
The 4 line: Monmouth (27-6), Colorado St (21-10), Charleston (24-9), BYU (22-11)
The 5 line: Utah (18-11), Ole Miss (20-13), Boise St (17-11), Richmond (20-11)
The 6 line: Ohio St (17-15), Colorado (18-14), ||| Fresno St (18-12), Central Florida (21-10)
The 7 line: New Mexico St (24-5), St Bonaventure (20-12), Valparaiso (23-8), New Mexico (17-14)
The 8 line: Belmont (21-6), UNC-Greensboro (22-9), Oakland (22-8), South Dakota (20-11)
5 NIT bids have been poached by autobid so far. By my count, this weekend, there are 11 bid poaching opportunities, and I'm guessing an average of 5-7 of them will come through. Therefore, the true bubble of the NIT is somewhere around the middle of the 6 line.
CIT
I'll do my final CIT projections here. I know some teams have already announced bids; I'm going to ignore those for the purpose of this post. Here's what I'm doing here, since I know some of these teams will decline bids. This is a list of the 32 teams I'd invite. This is who I think deserves to play based on merit. These are in no particular order.
St Bonaventure (20-12), Towson (19-13), George Washington (19-14), Lehigh (19-12)
St Peter's (19-13), William & Mary (15-14), George Mason (19-13), Albany (20-12)
Central Florida (21-10), Davidson (17-14), Georgia St (18-11), Furman (19-11)
UNC-Asheville (21-9), Georgia Southern (16-14), Old Dominion (19-12), Harvard (16-9)
Valparaiso (23-8), Ball St (20-12), Ohio (19-11), Southern Illinois (16-16)
Arkansas St (19-12), Louisiana Tech (21-10), Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (17-10), Santa Clara (16-16)
Fresno St (18-12), New Mexico St (24-5), New Mexico (17-14), San Francisco (19-12)
San Diego St (18-14), North Dakota St (17-11), Grand Canyon (20-9), Eastern Washington (20-11)
Best 20 available after these 32:
power conference division (these teams aren't making the NIT so they're done): Memphis (19-13), Texas Tech (18-14), Texas A&M (16-15), Auburn (18-14)
Others (these teams will likely have the option to play somewhere if they want it): LaSalle (15-15), Wyoming (16-14), Elon (16-15), Louisiana-Lafayette (19-12), Texas St (17-12), Kent St (20-13), Chattanooga (17-12), Siena (17-17), Wright St (18-12), Green Bay (16-13), Omaha (17-14), Yale (16-10), Stony Brook (18-13), New Hampshire (17-12), Rice (20-11), Marshall (19-14), Tennessee-Martin (19-12), Lipscomb (17-13), Weber St (17-12), Long Island (19-12)
Postseason bubble (I expect the postseason bubble to cut most of these teams from the postseason, in a world where few teams turn down bids):
Liberty (16-13), UC-Davis (19-12), Loyola(Chi) (16-14), Buffalo (15-15), Fairfield (16-14), IPFW (16-12), Gardner-Webb (16-14), Houston Baptist (13-13), Idaho (16-13), Cal St-Fullerton (15-14)
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