@Penn 75, Harvard 72 (OT) - a mild Ivy upset, but they're all at-large longshots as is. Perhaps Yale is the best team after all
Bowling Green 78, @Buffalo 77 - we know the best MAC team now
@Rhode Island 87, VCU 75 - this just really pulls both teams closer to the bubble (approaching it in opposite directions)
Friday, January 31, 2020
1/30 recap
@Maryland 82, Iowa 72
@Illinois 59, Minnesota 51 - looks like Minny is the first casualty of the zero sum rule - there's only so many wins to go around in conference play
Oregon 77, @Cal 72
@UCLA 72, Colorado 68 - this is why road wins are never trivial
Arizona 75, @Washington 72 - UW may be dead and buried
@USC 56, Utah 52
Oregon St 68, @Stanford 63 - not a great look for a team that's a computer darling. Starting to see clearly defined lines in the Pac-12 where Oregon/Colorado/Arizona/USC are above the fray and everyone else is in the middle of it
Gonzaga 87, @Santa Clara 72
@BYU 107, Pepperdine 80
@St Mary's 86, Portland 64
@Illinois 59, Minnesota 51 - looks like Minny is the first casualty of the zero sum rule - there's only so many wins to go around in conference play
Oregon 77, @Cal 72
@UCLA 72, Colorado 68 - this is why road wins are never trivial
Arizona 75, @Washington 72 - UW may be dead and buried
@USC 56, Utah 52
Oregon St 68, @Stanford 63 - not a great look for a team that's a computer darling. Starting to see clearly defined lines in the Pac-12 where Oregon/Colorado/Arizona/USC are above the fray and everyone else is in the middle of it
Gonzaga 87, @Santa Clara 72
@BYU 107, Pepperdine 80
@St Mary's 86, Portland 64
1/29 recap
Baylor 67, @Iowa St 53
@Texas Tech 89, West Virginia 81 - the difference between contending for the 1 line, and settling for the 3 line. TTU feeling more and more solid in my book
Texas 62, @TCU 61 - road wins are never trivial
@Kansas St 61, Oklahoma 53 - and this is why
@Kentucky 71, Vandy 62
@Michigan St 79, Northwestern 50
@Penn St 64, Indiana 49
Louisville 86, @BC 69
@Notre Dame 90, Wake Forest 80
@LSU 90, Alabama 76
South Carolina 79, @Arkansas 77 - icky home loss. Again, the middle of the SEC is a mess
@Seton Hall 64, DePaul 57
Marquette 84, @Xavier 82 (2OT) - if nothing else, the top end of the Big East is really solid
@Washington St 67, Arizona St 65
San Diego St 85, @New Mexico 57 - blowing teams out is the type of thing that does matter in the discussion for the 1 line
Dayton 73, @Duquesne 69
St Louis 77, @LaSalle 76
Houston 69, @East Carolina 59
Memphis 59, @UCF 57
@Northern Iowa 95, Missouri St 66
Mercer 71, @East Tennessee St 55 - noooooooooooooooooooooooo. Terrible, no good, horrible way to burn a loss in the SoCon. At home to a non-contender. That's at-large sabotage.
@Texas Tech 89, West Virginia 81 - the difference between contending for the 1 line, and settling for the 3 line. TTU feeling more and more solid in my book
Texas 62, @TCU 61 - road wins are never trivial
@Kansas St 61, Oklahoma 53 - and this is why
@Kentucky 71, Vandy 62
@Michigan St 79, Northwestern 50
@Penn St 64, Indiana 49
Louisville 86, @BC 69
@Notre Dame 90, Wake Forest 80
@LSU 90, Alabama 76
South Carolina 79, @Arkansas 77 - icky home loss. Again, the middle of the SEC is a mess
@Seton Hall 64, DePaul 57
Marquette 84, @Xavier 82 (2OT) - if nothing else, the top end of the Big East is really solid
@Washington St 67, Arizona St 65
San Diego St 85, @New Mexico 57 - blowing teams out is the type of thing that does matter in the discussion for the 1 line
Dayton 73, @Duquesne 69
St Louis 77, @LaSalle 76
Houston 69, @East Carolina 59
Memphis 59, @UCF 57
@Northern Iowa 95, Missouri St 66
Mercer 71, @East Tennessee St 55 - noooooooooooooooooooooooo. Terrible, no good, horrible way to burn a loss in the SoCon. At home to a non-contender. That's at-large sabotage.
1/28 recap
@Virginia 61, Florida St 56 - the signature win UVa needed to be relevant in the bubble talk long-term
@Duke 79, Pitt 67
@Clemson 71, Syracuse 70
@Miami 71, Virginia Tech 61 - and it might be a good thing UVa won, because no one else is really doing anything on the bubble right now
Villanova 79, @St John's 59
Butler 69, @Georgetown 64
Auburn 83, @Ole Miss 82 (2OT)
Texas A&M 63, @Tennessee 58 - the middle of the SEC just gets more and more confusing
Mississippi St 78, @Florida 71 - see? Starting to take MSU a bit more seriously, at least
@Missouri 72, Georgia 69
@Rutgers 70, Purdue 63
Michigan 79, @Nebraska 68
@Cincinnati 65, SMU 43
@VCU 87, Richmond 68
Rhode Island 78, @George Mason 64
@Duke 79, Pitt 67
@Clemson 71, Syracuse 70
@Miami 71, Virginia Tech 61 - and it might be a good thing UVa won, because no one else is really doing anything on the bubble right now
Villanova 79, @St John's 59
Butler 69, @Georgetown 64
Auburn 83, @Ole Miss 82 (2OT)
Texas A&M 63, @Tennessee 58 - the middle of the SEC just gets more and more confusing
Mississippi St 78, @Florida 71 - see? Starting to take MSU a bit more seriously, at least
@Missouri 72, Georgia 69
@Rutgers 70, Purdue 63
Michigan 79, @Nebraska 68
@Cincinnati 65, SMU 43
@VCU 87, Richmond 68
Rhode Island 78, @George Mason 64
Monday, January 27, 2020
1/27 recap
Kansas 65, @Oklahoma St 50
@Iowa 68, Wisconsin 62
North Carolina 75, @NC State 65 - boy oh boy, the ACC is really intent on getting the minimum number of bids this season
@Iowa 68, Wisconsin 62
North Carolina 75, @NC State 65 - boy oh boy, the ACC is really intent on getting the minimum number of bids this season
Sunday, January 26, 2020
1/27 BRACKET
I am laughing so hard at what I inadvertently did to the midwest region. Kansas, Duke, Michigan St, Kentucky, Arizona, Ohio St, Michigan. Have fun with that.
I know the 3-6-11 lines are broken. Let's take you behind the scenes. I have 2 B1G and 1 ACC team on the 3 line, and 2 B1G teams on the 6 line. There are 2 ACC and 2 B1G teams in the play-in games, that have to be on the 11 line. Avoiding conflict is impossible, some inter-conference matchups had to be possible in the first two rounds. I sorta kinda found a tolerable solution, but it resulted in Dayton and VCU in the same subregional, so that was a no-go. And on top of that, BYU and their no Sunday crap was on the 11 line.
So in the end? I threw the B1G teams and ACC teams against each other in the play-in games. Accepted that conflict while solving the other ones. I'm not going to try and solve an impossible bracket problem in January. Deal with it.
SOUTH 34
@Omaha
1) Baylor vs. 16) Robert Morris/Norfolk St
8) Wisconsin vs. 9) Florida
@Tampa
4) Butler vs. 13) North Texas
5) Auburn vs. 12) East Tennessee St
@St Louis
3) Dayton vs. 14) Arkansas-Little Rock
6) Colorado vs. 11) Purdue/Minnesota
@Tampa
2) Florida St vs. 15) Montana
7) Marquette vs. 10) Memphis
EAST 33
@Spokane
1) Gonzaga vs. 16) Winthrop
8) Stanford vs. 9) Texas Tech
@Albany
4) Villanova vs. 13) Vermont
5) LSU vs. 12) Northern Iowa
@Greensboro
3) Maryland vs. 14) William & Mary
6) Wichita St vs. 11) VCU
@Albany
2) Seton Hall vs. 15) South Dakota St
7) Rutgers vs. 10) Oklahoma
WEST 35
@Sacramento
1) San Diego St vs. 16) Monmouth
8) Indiana vs. 9) USC
@Spokane
4) Oregon vs. 13) Stephen F Austin
5) Creighton vs. 12) Yale
@St Louis
3) Louisville vs. 14) UC-Irvine
6) Penn St vs. 11) BYU
@Cleveland
2) West Virginia vs. 15) Wright St
7) Illinois vs. 10) St Mary's
MIDWEST 34
@Omaha
1) Kansas vs. 16) North Florida/Texas Southern
8) Ohio St vs. 9) Arkansas
@Sacramento
4) Kentucky vs. 13) New Mexico St
5) Iowa vs. 12) Akron
@Cleveland
3) Michigan St vs. 14) Colgate
6) Arizona vs. 11) Virginia Tech/Syracuse
@Greensboro
2) Duke vs. 15) Austin Peay
7) Houston vs. 10) Michigan
I know the 3-6-11 lines are broken. Let's take you behind the scenes. I have 2 B1G and 1 ACC team on the 3 line, and 2 B1G teams on the 6 line. There are 2 ACC and 2 B1G teams in the play-in games, that have to be on the 11 line. Avoiding conflict is impossible, some inter-conference matchups had to be possible in the first two rounds. I sorta kinda found a tolerable solution, but it resulted in Dayton and VCU in the same subregional, so that was a no-go. And on top of that, BYU and their no Sunday crap was on the 11 line.
So in the end? I threw the B1G teams and ACC teams against each other in the play-in games. Accepted that conflict while solving the other ones. I'm not going to try and solve an impossible bracket problem in January. Deal with it.
SOUTH 34
@Omaha
1) Baylor vs. 16) Robert Morris/Norfolk St
8) Wisconsin vs. 9) Florida
@Tampa
4) Butler vs. 13) North Texas
5) Auburn vs. 12) East Tennessee St
@St Louis
3) Dayton vs. 14) Arkansas-Little Rock
6) Colorado vs. 11) Purdue/Minnesota
@Tampa
2) Florida St vs. 15) Montana
7) Marquette vs. 10) Memphis
EAST 33
@Spokane
1) Gonzaga vs. 16) Winthrop
8) Stanford vs. 9) Texas Tech
@Albany
4) Villanova vs. 13) Vermont
5) LSU vs. 12) Northern Iowa
@Greensboro
3) Maryland vs. 14) William & Mary
6) Wichita St vs. 11) VCU
@Albany
2) Seton Hall vs. 15) South Dakota St
7) Rutgers vs. 10) Oklahoma
WEST 35
@Sacramento
1) San Diego St vs. 16) Monmouth
8) Indiana vs. 9) USC
@Spokane
4) Oregon vs. 13) Stephen F Austin
5) Creighton vs. 12) Yale
@St Louis
3) Louisville vs. 14) UC-Irvine
6) Penn St vs. 11) BYU
@Cleveland
2) West Virginia vs. 15) Wright St
7) Illinois vs. 10) St Mary's
MIDWEST 34
@Omaha
1) Kansas vs. 16) North Florida/Texas Southern
8) Ohio St vs. 9) Arkansas
@Sacramento
4) Kentucky vs. 13) New Mexico St
5) Iowa vs. 12) Akron
@Cleveland
3) Michigan St vs. 14) Colgate
6) Arizona vs. 11) Virginia Tech/Syracuse
@Greensboro
2) Duke vs. 15) Austin Peay
7) Houston vs. 10) Michigan
1/27 SEED LIST
Feel like the identity of the 1 line is pretty well set. Things are sure to change though. Teams on the 2 line are going to pick up signature wins, due to the way the teams on the 1 line are clustered. Whoever inevitably wins the Big East, ACC, and B1G are going to come for the 1 line.
The 4 line is kind of a transition line for me. Feel good about the top 12-15 separating from the pack. But once you get to the 5-8 lines, you could almost put these teams in any order and I wouldn't complain.
I haven't fully scrubbed this so I'm sure there's probably a couple spots where I've deviated from the data.
You can tell where I threw my hands up and just threw a bunch of B1G teams into the field. They have 10 in, and I really didn't want to do 12....but who else would've gone in?
The 1 line: Baylor, Kansas, San Diego St, Gonzaga
The 2 line: Seton Hall, Duke, West Virginia, Florida St
The 3 line: Maryland, Michigan St, Dayton, Louisville
The 4 line: Oregon, Butler, Villanova, Kentucky
The 5 line: Iowa, Auburn, LSU, Creighton
The 6 line: Colorado, Arizona, Penn St, Wichita St
The 7 line: Rutgers, Illinois, Marquette, Houston
The 8 line: Stanford, Ohio St, Wisconsin, Indiana
The 9 line: USC, Florida, Texas Tech, Arkansas
The 10 line: St Mary's, Memphis, Michigan, Oklahoma
The 11 line: BYU, VCU, Virginia Tech, Purdue, Syracuse, Minnesota
The 12 line: Northern Iowa, East Tennessee St, Akron, Yale
The 13 line: North Texas, Stephen F Austin, Vermont, New Mexico St
The 14 line: William & Mary, UC-Irvine, Colgate, Arkansas-Little Rock
The 15 line: Wright St, Montana, South Dakota St, Austin Peay
The 16 line: Winthrop, Monmouth, North Florida, Robert Morris, Norfolk St, Texas Southern
Next 4 in:
Michigan
Oklahoma
BYU
VCU
Last 4 in:
Virginia Tech
Purdue
Syracuse
Minnesota
Last 4 out:
Alabama
North Carolina St
Northern Iowa*
Rhode Island
Georgetown
Next 4 out:
Richmond
Tennessee
Mississippi St
Arizona St
Break it down!:
B1G 12
Big East 5
Big 12 5
Pac-12 5
SEC 5
ACC 5
AAC 3
WCC 3
A-10 2
The 4 line is kind of a transition line for me. Feel good about the top 12-15 separating from the pack. But once you get to the 5-8 lines, you could almost put these teams in any order and I wouldn't complain.
I haven't fully scrubbed this so I'm sure there's probably a couple spots where I've deviated from the data.
You can tell where I threw my hands up and just threw a bunch of B1G teams into the field. They have 10 in, and I really didn't want to do 12....but who else would've gone in?
The 1 line: Baylor, Kansas, San Diego St, Gonzaga
The 2 line: Seton Hall, Duke, West Virginia, Florida St
The 3 line: Maryland, Michigan St, Dayton, Louisville
The 4 line: Oregon, Butler, Villanova, Kentucky
The 5 line: Iowa, Auburn, LSU, Creighton
The 6 line: Colorado, Arizona, Penn St, Wichita St
The 7 line: Rutgers, Illinois, Marquette, Houston
The 8 line: Stanford, Ohio St, Wisconsin, Indiana
The 9 line: USC, Florida, Texas Tech, Arkansas
The 10 line: St Mary's, Memphis, Michigan, Oklahoma
The 11 line: BYU, VCU, Virginia Tech, Purdue, Syracuse, Minnesota
The 12 line: Northern Iowa, East Tennessee St, Akron, Yale
The 13 line: North Texas, Stephen F Austin, Vermont, New Mexico St
The 14 line: William & Mary, UC-Irvine, Colgate, Arkansas-Little Rock
The 15 line: Wright St, Montana, South Dakota St, Austin Peay
The 16 line: Winthrop, Monmouth, North Florida, Robert Morris, Norfolk St, Texas Southern
Next 4 in:
Michigan
Oklahoma
BYU
VCU
Last 4 in:
Virginia Tech
Purdue
Syracuse
Minnesota
Last 4 out:
Alabama
North Carolina St
Northern Iowa*
Rhode Island
Georgetown
Next 4 out:
Richmond
Tennessee
Mississippi St
Arizona St
Break it down!:
B1G 12
Big East 5
Big 12 5
Pac-12 5
SEC 5
ACC 5
AAC 3
WCC 3
A-10 2
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