Big East:
Seton Hall 83, @Marquette 63 - Marquette is dead and SHU appears to be for real
Georgetown 70, @DePaul 58
B1G:
@Maryland 70, Penn St 64
Indiana 79, @Rutgers 72
Michigan 78, @Illinois 68
Northwestern 81, @Nebraska 72 - can't underestimate the importance of a road conference win
@Ohio St 78, Minnesota 63
ACC:
@North Carolina 80, Clemson 69
@Pittsburgh 72, Syracuse 61 - slowly buying into Pitt; I'm not sure what the committee will do with these Boeheim-lite results
AAC:
Houston 73, @South Florida 67 - okay, we'll pay attention to Houston for the time being
MVC:
@Northern Iowa 80, Bradley 44
Sun Belt:
@UT-Arlington 85, Georgia St 70 - yeah, Sun Belt gets its own heading this year! This was one of the tougher conference games, now already out of the way
Mountain West:
@San Diego St 67, Wyoming 55
Utah St 80, @San Jose St 71
Fresno St 69, @UNLV 66 - awful, awful loss for UNLV to start...is Fresno a player this year? Probably not
Non-con:
West Virginia 88, @Virginia Tech 63 - road wins are never trivial
@Dayton 85, Arkansas 81 (OT)
Cupcake winners: Virginia, Iowa St, Duke, South Carolina, Rhode Island (at Brown), VCU, Vanderbilt, Boise St
Thursday, December 31, 2015
Wednesday, December 30, 2015
12/29 recap
Conference play underway in earnest, finally
B1G:
@Iowa 83, Michigan St 70 - no overall harm to MSU, and a modest profile improvement for Iowa. Doesn't make their entire resume, though
Purdue 61, @Wisconsin 55 - Already, one of Wisky's hail-mary options to get back into the bubble talk is off the board
AAC:
SMU 81, @Tulsa 69 - kind of criminal that Tulsa's best reasonable signature win chance in conference play is already by the boards, but alas. SMU can wreck the NCAA chances of the conference if it wants to
Temple 77, @Cincinnati 70 - not a good look for Cincy; Temple has more work to do to be serious bubble players
@Memphis 77, Tulane 65
Non-conference:
@UAB 76, Stephen F Austin 66
@Texas Tech 85, Richmond 70 - TTU is 10-1, somehow. Not buying it yet
Wake Forest 77, @LSU 71
Florida St 73, @Florida 71
@NC State 72, Northeastern 66
@UConn 71, Texas 66 - a good win for UConn solidifying themselves as the AAC #1; Texas should be fine
Cupcake winners: Kansas, Miami, Texas A&M, Baylor, Tennessee, Notre Dame, Colorado St, Oklahoma St, Georgia Tech, St Joseph's, Georgia, George Washington (on the road, no less), Kansas St, Alabama, Oregon, Hawaii
B1G:
@Iowa 83, Michigan St 70 - no overall harm to MSU, and a modest profile improvement for Iowa. Doesn't make their entire resume, though
Purdue 61, @Wisconsin 55 - Already, one of Wisky's hail-mary options to get back into the bubble talk is off the board
AAC:
SMU 81, @Tulsa 69 - kind of criminal that Tulsa's best reasonable signature win chance in conference play is already by the boards, but alas. SMU can wreck the NCAA chances of the conference if it wants to
Temple 77, @Cincinnati 70 - not a good look for Cincy; Temple has more work to do to be serious bubble players
@Memphis 77, Tulane 65
Non-conference:
@UAB 76, Stephen F Austin 66
@Texas Tech 85, Richmond 70 - TTU is 10-1, somehow. Not buying it yet
Wake Forest 77, @LSU 71
Florida St 73, @Florida 71
@NC State 72, Northeastern 66
@UConn 71, Texas 66 - a good win for UConn solidifying themselves as the AAC #1; Texas should be fine
Cupcake winners: Kansas, Miami, Texas A&M, Baylor, Tennessee, Notre Dame, Colorado St, Oklahoma St, Georgia Tech, St Joseph's, Georgia, George Washington (on the road, no less), Kansas St, Alabama, Oregon, Hawaii
Tuesday, December 29, 2015
12/28 recap
One final full day of non-con action, pretty much everyone throttled back.
Signature win of the day:
@California 86, Davidson 60 - Cal acting like a tourney team (and Davidson starting to definitely look like a non-tourney team)
Catatstrophic loss of the day:
@Belmont 85, Valparaiso 81 - very tough ask to win at Belmont. Valpo's still in fine position, but they can't afford a high raw number of losses, and this is one less they can afford in Horizon play
UC-Santa Barbara 83, @Washington 78
Postponement of the day: New Mexico St at Wichita St
Cupcake winners: UNC, Butler, Duke, Villanova, Utah, Louisiana Tech, Arizona St, St Mary's
Signature win of the day:
@California 86, Davidson 60 - Cal acting like a tourney team (and Davidson starting to definitely look like a non-tourney team)
Catatstrophic loss of the day:
@Belmont 85, Valparaiso 81 - very tough ask to win at Belmont. Valpo's still in fine position, but they can't afford a high raw number of losses, and this is one less they can afford in Horizon play
UC-Santa Barbara 83, @Washington 78
Postponement of the day: New Mexico St at Wichita St
Cupcake winners: UNC, Butler, Duke, Villanova, Utah, Louisiana Tech, Arizona St, St Mary's
Monday, December 28, 2015
Some early SoS readings
Everyone knows how important SoS is. And while things will obviously change, it's late enough that we can start to read the tea leaves and see where teams stand. Who scheduled up well and gave themselves a chance this year?
Georgia (6-3) RPI 41 SoS 1
A strong SoS number comes from truly avoiding cupcakes. They got solid mid-majors in Oakland, Winthrop, and High Point to fill the bottom part of their schedule. The issue, however, is that their signature win is...Georgia Tech at home? And they lost to Chattanooga and K-State at home. So it's not an at-large team, but they ARE set up to make a run if they get quality wins in the SEC. A team like this with a marginal SoS is dead in the water even with quality SEC wins, but with this SoS, they'll have a fighting chance.
Xavier (12-0) RPI 1 SoS 2
We're going to have to talk X and the 1 line before too long, folks. Also Villanova is sitting at SoS 5, so some strong RPI mojo will get passed around in the Big East.
Wichita St (5-5) RPI 57 SoS 6
Here is where you reap the rewards of scheduling up. Injuries will play an issue when evaluating this resume (if you believe results before Van Vleet came back should be discarded, we're looking at 4-1 with wins over Utah and UNLV and a loss at SHU). The very strong SoS will save Wichita barring disaster.
Florida (8-3) RPI 11 SoS 7
Kentucky (10-2) RPI 12 SoS 18
Vanderbilt (7-4) RPI 48 SoS 19
Alabama (7-3) RPI 25 SoS 20
Well done, SEC. Turned a problem into a strength.
The battle for the 1 line:
North Carolina (10-2) RPI 3 SoS 12
Michigan St (13-0) RPI 2 SoS 45
Maryland (11-1) RPI 34 SoS 166
Duke (9-2) RPI 27 SoS 30
Virginia (10-1) RPI 10 SoS 56
Iowa St (10-1) RPI 4 SoS 14
It's obviously early for this, but early leg up to UNC and ISU, and an early ding to Maryland.
Monmouth (9-3) RPI 13 SoS 26
Here's why I think Monmouth will at least hang in the at-large discussion. Took a 2-game road trip to UCLA/USC. Played a big MTT and big names within it. They also played 1 true home game out of 12 so far. The home/road thing is a discussion for a different post, but from a SoS perspective, they gave themselves enough big chances to offset what will happen to them in the MAAC.
Texas-Arlington (8-2) RPI 37 SoS 129
I've been championing them...with UTEP going in the tank a bit, they only have 4 legit games on the non-con SoS right now....all 4 roadies, and they split them (Ohio St and Memphis for, Texas and LaTech against). Really, splitting the legit games isn't bad. The SoS is really hurt by a few really harmful cupcakes. This will be an interesting test case in March if it comes to it.
Arkansas-Little Rock (8-1) RPI 35 SoS 182
While the schedule does have a lot of road/neutral games, it does have a couple cupcakes weighing it down. Plus, their wins (Tulsa, SDSU etc) are eroding a bit. While UTA is hanging up in the SoS department in the low 100s, it's much more difficult to make a case for one in the high 100s. We'll see though, because I do expect those quality wins to look better.
Valparaiso (8-2) RPI 20 SoS 87
I do think Valpo's non-con SoS will be in a comfortable range. They've done enough to make Horizon League play matter, IMO.
Dayton (9-2) RPI 9 SoS 3
Part of me thinks that the non-con SoS will be unsustainable, but it's obviously a perfect start, and should leave Dayton safely tucked within the bubble for a long time.
Long Beach St (4-8) RPI 85 SoS 8
UC-Santa Barbara (3-7) RPI 101 SoS 16
No at-large impact, but these numbers have helped the Big West climb the conference RPI rankings, and will help the conference's seed in March greatly. They'll get higher than they deserve, really.
Teams in the danger zone in the SoS department:
Marquette (10-2) RPI 158 SoS 306 - they're getting sunk by a plethora of bad cupcakes
Baylor (8-2) RPI 94 SoS 261 - doesn't help that NMSU and SFA are down this year. They're going to waste 3 games (1-2) against top 50 competition because of the other anchors
LSU (7-4) RPI 164 SoS 225 - their failures have been well-documented
Arizona (12-1) RPI 43 SoS 180 - obviously Zona will be fine, but we might need to scrutinize their seed more closely now
Georgia (6-3) RPI 41 SoS 1
A strong SoS number comes from truly avoiding cupcakes. They got solid mid-majors in Oakland, Winthrop, and High Point to fill the bottom part of their schedule. The issue, however, is that their signature win is...Georgia Tech at home? And they lost to Chattanooga and K-State at home. So it's not an at-large team, but they ARE set up to make a run if they get quality wins in the SEC. A team like this with a marginal SoS is dead in the water even with quality SEC wins, but with this SoS, they'll have a fighting chance.
Xavier (12-0) RPI 1 SoS 2
We're going to have to talk X and the 1 line before too long, folks. Also Villanova is sitting at SoS 5, so some strong RPI mojo will get passed around in the Big East.
Wichita St (5-5) RPI 57 SoS 6
Here is where you reap the rewards of scheduling up. Injuries will play an issue when evaluating this resume (if you believe results before Van Vleet came back should be discarded, we're looking at 4-1 with wins over Utah and UNLV and a loss at SHU). The very strong SoS will save Wichita barring disaster.
Florida (8-3) RPI 11 SoS 7
Kentucky (10-2) RPI 12 SoS 18
Vanderbilt (7-4) RPI 48 SoS 19
Alabama (7-3) RPI 25 SoS 20
Well done, SEC. Turned a problem into a strength.
The battle for the 1 line:
North Carolina (10-2) RPI 3 SoS 12
Michigan St (13-0) RPI 2 SoS 45
Maryland (11-1) RPI 34 SoS 166
Duke (9-2) RPI 27 SoS 30
Virginia (10-1) RPI 10 SoS 56
Iowa St (10-1) RPI 4 SoS 14
It's obviously early for this, but early leg up to UNC and ISU, and an early ding to Maryland.
Monmouth (9-3) RPI 13 SoS 26
Here's why I think Monmouth will at least hang in the at-large discussion. Took a 2-game road trip to UCLA/USC. Played a big MTT and big names within it. They also played 1 true home game out of 12 so far. The home/road thing is a discussion for a different post, but from a SoS perspective, they gave themselves enough big chances to offset what will happen to them in the MAAC.
Texas-Arlington (8-2) RPI 37 SoS 129
I've been championing them...with UTEP going in the tank a bit, they only have 4 legit games on the non-con SoS right now....all 4 roadies, and they split them (Ohio St and Memphis for, Texas and LaTech against). Really, splitting the legit games isn't bad. The SoS is really hurt by a few really harmful cupcakes. This will be an interesting test case in March if it comes to it.
Arkansas-Little Rock (8-1) RPI 35 SoS 182
While the schedule does have a lot of road/neutral games, it does have a couple cupcakes weighing it down. Plus, their wins (Tulsa, SDSU etc) are eroding a bit. While UTA is hanging up in the SoS department in the low 100s, it's much more difficult to make a case for one in the high 100s. We'll see though, because I do expect those quality wins to look better.
Valparaiso (8-2) RPI 20 SoS 87
I do think Valpo's non-con SoS will be in a comfortable range. They've done enough to make Horizon League play matter, IMO.
Dayton (9-2) RPI 9 SoS 3
Part of me thinks that the non-con SoS will be unsustainable, but it's obviously a perfect start, and should leave Dayton safely tucked within the bubble for a long time.
Long Beach St (4-8) RPI 85 SoS 8
UC-Santa Barbara (3-7) RPI 101 SoS 16
No at-large impact, but these numbers have helped the Big West climb the conference RPI rankings, and will help the conference's seed in March greatly. They'll get higher than they deserve, really.
Teams in the danger zone in the SoS department:
Marquette (10-2) RPI 158 SoS 306 - they're getting sunk by a plethora of bad cupcakes
Baylor (8-2) RPI 94 SoS 261 - doesn't help that NMSU and SFA are down this year. They're going to waste 3 games (1-2) against top 50 competition because of the other anchors
LSU (7-4) RPI 164 SoS 225 - their failures have been well-documented
Arizona (12-1) RPI 43 SoS 180 - obviously Zona will be fine, but we might need to scrutinize their seed more closely now
Sunday, December 27, 2015
12/27 recap
Another final quiet day as people just played some cupcakes.
@South Dakota St 65, Middle Tennessee 61 - yeah, probably the best game of the day
Cupcake winners: Maryland, Marquette, Syracuse, VCU, Ohio St, Northwestern, Stanford
@South Dakota St 65, Middle Tennessee 61 - yeah, probably the best game of the day
Cupcake winners: Maryland, Marquette, Syracuse, VCU, Ohio St, Northwestern, Stanford
Saturday, December 26, 2015
12/26 recap
So just one game was played on this day. One. Everyone else took it off. But who, of all programs, had the arrogance to play in and host a game on this day? Who considers themselves so self-important that they had to play?
Kentucky, of course! With a side helping of Louisville. Ugh.
@Kentucky 75, Louisville 73 - will be useful for UK's seed, Louisville's resume is kind of actually garbage, but ACC play will fix that
Kentucky, of course! With a side helping of Louisville. Ugh.
@Kentucky 75, Louisville 73 - will be useful for UK's seed, Louisville's resume is kind of actually garbage, but ACC play will fix that
12/25 recap
Stupid Diamond Head on what should've been a 2nd straight day off for the sport.
Oklahoma 83, Harvard 71 - Oklahoma winds up with 3 empty-calories wins. Not great for them but hey, wins are better than losses
Hawaii 79, Auburn 67 - Hawaii binks a 3rd place on its home court. I'm not THAT opposed to them in the at-large pool...if they come close to running the Big West table
BYU 84, Northern Iowa 76 - BYU trying to hang on in the bubble picture, but the WCC being in the tank is its death knell. Meanwhile, what the heck, UNI?
Washington St 82, New Mexico 59 - well, so much for UNM
Oklahoma 83, Harvard 71 - Oklahoma winds up with 3 empty-calories wins. Not great for them but hey, wins are better than losses
Hawaii 79, Auburn 67 - Hawaii binks a 3rd place on its home court. I'm not THAT opposed to them in the at-large pool...if they come close to running the Big West table
BYU 84, Northern Iowa 76 - BYU trying to hang on in the bubble picture, but the WCC being in the tank is its death knell. Meanwhile, what the heck, UNI?
Washington St 82, New Mexico 59 - well, so much for UNM
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