It's time to preview an artificially-created marketing tool for ESPN!
Now, there's actually a few decent games in here, so it's worth planning in advance to see which games are relevant.
Monday 7 EST: Albany at Cincinnati
Monday 9 EST: North Carolina Central at Ohio St
I lump these two games together - competent mid-majors at vulnerable power conference schools. Odds feel good that someone gets an upset in one of these games.
Monday 10 EST: Princeton at BYU
It's been a quiet ascension, but the top half of the Ivy League is now good. This is a winnable game for Princeton, and a must-hold for BYU and the WCC in general.
Tuesday 12a EST: San Diego St at Gonzaga
What a sexy game. It's likely neither team will need this in order to make the tournament, so this is about seeding. For both teams, quality win chances are small in February and March, so these really matter.
After this, there's a bunch of games in the middle of the night that I just can't endorse.
Tuesday 1 EST: Dayton at Alabama
Such an important, important game for the SEC. They need to legitimize themselves. Holding serve at home over a A-10 favorite is the type of result they need.
Tuesday 330 EST: Oregon at Baylor
Road wins are always valuable. 1 seeds win this game. 3 or 4 seeds lose this game. Oregon, are you 1-line worthy?
Tuesday 7 EST: Kentucky vs. Michigan St
Tuesday 930 EST: Duke vs. Kansas
I hear these teams are good.
Monday, November 14, 2016
11/13 recap
Another day where there's very little impact. All of the big teams are taking this weekend off ahead of big games in the next couple of weeks, or are playing cupcakes with success.
Not many game-changers out there in terms of impact wins.
@Colorado St 64, New Mexico St 61 - interesting to me only because NMSU is trapped in the WAC, so these losses matter more to them than it does to other teams
Yale 98, @Washington 90 - here's one mild upset. I'm not sure Washington is any good, but this is good news for the Ivy League as a whole
@Wichita St 92, Long Beach St 55 - good God, Monson, schedule down every once in awhile
@North Carolina 97, Chattanooga 57 - no big deal for Chattanooga, they got a split in their first two roadies which is perfectly fine
There's a slew of big name schools that held serve...pretty quiet day overall.
Not many game-changers out there in terms of impact wins.
@Colorado St 64, New Mexico St 61 - interesting to me only because NMSU is trapped in the WAC, so these losses matter more to them than it does to other teams
Yale 98, @Washington 90 - here's one mild upset. I'm not sure Washington is any good, but this is good news for the Ivy League as a whole
@Wichita St 92, Long Beach St 55 - good God, Monson, schedule down every once in awhile
@North Carolina 97, Chattanooga 57 - no big deal for Chattanooga, they got a split in their first two roadies which is perfectly fine
There's a slew of big name schools that held serve...pretty quiet day overall.
Sunday, November 13, 2016
11/12 recap
I'm having trouble coming up with a post because I see a few teams who held serve as big favorites....and basically no game-changing results.
So carry on with your day then.
So carry on with your day then.
Saturday, November 12, 2016
11/11 recap
It's the return of the daily recaps. A reminder as to what these posts include:
- These will be short, we're looking just for quick-hitting thoughts
- I'm not listing out scores where top teams play cupcakes. Duke beating Marist by eleventy billion doesn't change anything for us, so we'll just ignore it
- We pay attention to who gets quality wins, who blew their chances at one, and who suffered losses that will look bad in March
Let's Go:
Indiana 103, Kansas 99 - usually, analysis for this kind of game is useless in November. We'll see where both teams are in March and see how much value this win/loss holds.
@Xavier 84, Lehigh 81 - notable only in the margin of victory; we'll keep Lehigh in the back of our minds as the non-con season marches forward to see if there's something here
Arizona 65, Michigan St 63 - see Indiana/Kansas comment
@St Mary's 81, Nevada 63 - Nevada's pretty good, so this was a non-trivial hold by St Mary's.
Wagner 67, @UConn 58 - and there's your catastrophic loss of the day. Wagner might win the NEC, but UConn has to handle any NEC team with ease
Marquette 95, Vanderbilt 71
Chattanooga 82, @Tennessee 69 - there's your SoCon favorites with a quality road win early
Albany 87, @Penn St 81 - again, quality mid-majors getting early quality road wins
@Clemson 74, Georgia 64 - this is the type of game bubble teams have to win....two bubble teams here
@Arkansas 92, Fort Wayne 83 - proof that not all quality mid-majors got a quality road win last night
@Stanford 80, Harvard 70
- These will be short, we're looking just for quick-hitting thoughts
- I'm not listing out scores where top teams play cupcakes. Duke beating Marist by eleventy billion doesn't change anything for us, so we'll just ignore it
- We pay attention to who gets quality wins, who blew their chances at one, and who suffered losses that will look bad in March
Let's Go:
Indiana 103, Kansas 99 - usually, analysis for this kind of game is useless in November. We'll see where both teams are in March and see how much value this win/loss holds.
@Xavier 84, Lehigh 81 - notable only in the margin of victory; we'll keep Lehigh in the back of our minds as the non-con season marches forward to see if there's something here
Arizona 65, Michigan St 63 - see Indiana/Kansas comment
@St Mary's 81, Nevada 63 - Nevada's pretty good, so this was a non-trivial hold by St Mary's.
Wagner 67, @UConn 58 - and there's your catastrophic loss of the day. Wagner might win the NEC, but UConn has to handle any NEC team with ease
Marquette 95, Vanderbilt 71
Chattanooga 82, @Tennessee 69 - there's your SoCon favorites with a quality road win early
Albany 87, @Penn St 81 - again, quality mid-majors getting early quality road wins
@Clemson 74, Georgia 64 - this is the type of game bubble teams have to win....two bubble teams here
@Arkansas 92, Fort Wayne 83 - proof that not all quality mid-majors got a quality road win last night
@Stanford 80, Harvard 70
Friday, November 11, 2016
11/11 S-CURVE
A new season begins, and your first S-Curve of the season is below. This is mostly the same as the offseason bracket, with a few tweaks here and there.
In the preseason bracket, I would argue it's more important to look at my conference breakdown rather than the individual teams. Sure, of course teams get bids and not conferences, but for preseason projections, I like to look at the relative strength of each conference. The strength will be an indicator of how many quality wins will be available in each conference, which will influence the likelihood of increased bids in the conference. I would look at the conference breakdown as a rough guide of how good I expect each conference to be, and how easy it'll be for them to get more bids.
More specifically:
- ACC will be strong. I have 8/15 getting in, that could easily be more than 8.
- I expect a mild rebound from the Mountain West, getting a 2nd team back in, and I expect the WCC Top 2 to keep clear of the bubble.
- The top of the SEC will be a bit stronger, but they only have 4 bids. I see very little depth. This won't hurt Kentucky, but it will hurt all of the bubble teams needing quality wins. My Auburn call is a bit of a hunch, though.
- The other power conferences lurk around the 50% mark in getting at-large bids, give or take a team. This is pretty standard.
- I'm probably selling the American conference short with only 3 teams, but I can't figure out who that 4th team will be. I'll wait and see there.
Individual team calls I'm leaning on:
- Monmouth will get their vengeance this year.
- Marquette/VT/Auburn is a trio of teams on my 9 line that are my bolder calls. There's room for each team in their conference to settle into the middle of the pack.
- I'm not completely sold on New Mexico being that 2nd MWC team, or Davidson being that 4th A-10 team, but I like the odds of those conferences posting a 2nd team and 4th team, respectively.
- I feel like the odds are the MVC gets 2 teams in, but I just didn't find room in this initial bracket.
- One note after the fact: some have 10 or 11 ACC teams in their bracket. It's not impossible, but let's slow your collective roll until we see evidence they should get that many. If you're wondering why Syracuse is off the board....I had to take a couple ACC teams off the board for balance...made my call with them over others.
One tradition has died this year. The traditional MAC at-large bid I give out in my first bracket of the year has been eliminated. RIP.
The 1 line: Duke, Villanova, Kansas, Oregon
The 2 line: Kentucky, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Michigan St
The 3 line: Virginia, Xavier, Arizona, Iowa St
The 4 line: Louisville, Indiana, UCLA, UConn
The 5 line: Dayton, Purdue, Gonzaga, Texas A&M
The 6 line: Baylor, California, Creighton, Rhode Island
The 7 line: West Virginia, Florida, Michigan, Miami
The 8 line: Wichita St, Maryland, Cincinnati, Colorado
The 9 line: Marquette, Virginia Tech, Auburn, St Mary's
The 10 line: Monmouth, Texas, Notre Dame, VCU
The 11 line: San Diego St, Florida St, USC, Seton Hall
The 12 line: Oklahoma, Davidson, New Mexico, SMU, Valparaiso, Harvard
The 13 line: Akron, Towson, Long Beach St, North Dakota St
The 14 line: Chattanooga, Texas-Arlington, Belmont, UAB
The 15 line: Weber St, Lehigh, Vermont, North Florida
The 16 line: Winthrop, Sam Houston St, Fairleigh Dickinson, New Mexico St, South Carolina St, Texas Southern
Next 4 in:
VCU
Florida St
USC
Seton Hall
Last 4 in:
Oklahoma
Davidson
New Mexico
SMU
Last 4 out:
Illinois St
Northwestern
Georgia
Northern Iowa
Next 4 out:
Pittsburgh
Ohio St
Alabama
Utah
Break it down!
ACC 8
Big 12 6
Big 10 6
Pac-12 6
Big East 5
SEC 4
A-10 4
AAC 3
WCC 2
MWC 2
In the preseason bracket, I would argue it's more important to look at my conference breakdown rather than the individual teams. Sure, of course teams get bids and not conferences, but for preseason projections, I like to look at the relative strength of each conference. The strength will be an indicator of how many quality wins will be available in each conference, which will influence the likelihood of increased bids in the conference. I would look at the conference breakdown as a rough guide of how good I expect each conference to be, and how easy it'll be for them to get more bids.
More specifically:
- ACC will be strong. I have 8/15 getting in, that could easily be more than 8.
- I expect a mild rebound from the Mountain West, getting a 2nd team back in, and I expect the WCC Top 2 to keep clear of the bubble.
- The top of the SEC will be a bit stronger, but they only have 4 bids. I see very little depth. This won't hurt Kentucky, but it will hurt all of the bubble teams needing quality wins. My Auburn call is a bit of a hunch, though.
- The other power conferences lurk around the 50% mark in getting at-large bids, give or take a team. This is pretty standard.
- I'm probably selling the American conference short with only 3 teams, but I can't figure out who that 4th team will be. I'll wait and see there.
Individual team calls I'm leaning on:
- Monmouth will get their vengeance this year.
- Marquette/VT/Auburn is a trio of teams on my 9 line that are my bolder calls. There's room for each team in their conference to settle into the middle of the pack.
- I'm not completely sold on New Mexico being that 2nd MWC team, or Davidson being that 4th A-10 team, but I like the odds of those conferences posting a 2nd team and 4th team, respectively.
- I feel like the odds are the MVC gets 2 teams in, but I just didn't find room in this initial bracket.
- One note after the fact: some have 10 or 11 ACC teams in their bracket. It's not impossible, but let's slow your collective roll until we see evidence they should get that many. If you're wondering why Syracuse is off the board....I had to take a couple ACC teams off the board for balance...made my call with them over others.
One tradition has died this year. The traditional MAC at-large bid I give out in my first bracket of the year has been eliminated. RIP.
The 1 line: Duke, Villanova, Kansas, Oregon
The 2 line: Kentucky, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Michigan St
The 3 line: Virginia, Xavier, Arizona, Iowa St
The 4 line: Louisville, Indiana, UCLA, UConn
The 5 line: Dayton, Purdue, Gonzaga, Texas A&M
The 6 line: Baylor, California, Creighton, Rhode Island
The 7 line: West Virginia, Florida, Michigan, Miami
The 8 line: Wichita St, Maryland, Cincinnati, Colorado
The 9 line: Marquette, Virginia Tech, Auburn, St Mary's
The 10 line: Monmouth, Texas, Notre Dame, VCU
The 11 line: San Diego St, Florida St, USC, Seton Hall
The 12 line: Oklahoma, Davidson, New Mexico, SMU, Valparaiso, Harvard
The 13 line: Akron, Towson, Long Beach St, North Dakota St
The 14 line: Chattanooga, Texas-Arlington, Belmont, UAB
The 15 line: Weber St, Lehigh, Vermont, North Florida
The 16 line: Winthrop, Sam Houston St, Fairleigh Dickinson, New Mexico St, South Carolina St, Texas Southern
Next 4 in:
VCU
Florida St
USC
Seton Hall
Last 4 in:
Oklahoma
Davidson
New Mexico
SMU
Last 4 out:
Illinois St
Northwestern
Georgia
Northern Iowa
Next 4 out:
Pittsburgh
Ohio St
Alabama
Utah
Break it down!
ACC 8
Big 12 6
Big 10 6
Pac-12 6
Big East 5
SEC 4
A-10 4
AAC 3
WCC 2
MWC 2
Thursday, November 10, 2016
11/11 BRACKET
I haven't completely checked previous years matchups and some other obscure bracket rules for now....this is preseason, dammit. I'll worry about that as the picture clears.
EAST
@Greenville
1) Duke vs. 16) New Mexico St/Texas Southern
8) Maryland vs. 9) Auburn
@Sacramento
4) UCLA vs. 13) Long Beach St
5) Gonzaga vs. 12) Davidson/New Mexico
@Milwaukee
3) Xavier vs. 14) Chattanooga
6) Rhode Island vs. 11) USC
@Indianapolis
2) Michigan St vs. 15) Lehigh
7) West Virginia vs. 10) Monmouth
WEST
@Sacramento
1) Oregon vs. 16) Winthrop
8) Cincinnati vs. 9) St Mary's
@Orlando
4) Indiana vs. 13) Akron
5) Texas A&M vs. 12) Valparaiso
@Tulsa
3) Iowa St vs. 14) Texas-Arlington
6) California vs. 11) Florida St
@Greenville
2) North Carolina vs. 15) North Florida
7) Florida vs. 10) VCU
MIDWEST
@Tulsa
1) Kansas vs. 16) Sam Houston St
8) Colorado vs. 9) Marquette
@Orlando
4) Louisville vs. 13) Towson
5) Dayton vs. 12) Oklahoma/SMU
@Salt Lake City
3) Arizona vs. 14) UAB
6) Baylor vs. 11) Seton Hall
@Milwaukee
2) Wisconsin vs. 15) Weber St
7) Miami vs. 10) Texas
SOUTH
@Buffalo
1) Villanova vs. 16) Fairleigh Dickinson/South Carolina St
8) Wichita St vs. 9) Virginia Tech
@Salt Lake City
4) UConn vs. 13) North Dakota St
5) Purdue vs. 12) Harvard
@Buffalo
3) Virginia vs. 14) Belmont
6) Creighton vs. 11) San Diego St
@Indianapolis
2) Kentucky vs. 15) Vermont
7) Michigan vs. 10) Notre Dame
EAST
@Greenville
1) Duke vs. 16) New Mexico St/Texas Southern
8) Maryland vs. 9) Auburn
@Sacramento
4) UCLA vs. 13) Long Beach St
5) Gonzaga vs. 12) Davidson/New Mexico
@Milwaukee
3) Xavier vs. 14) Chattanooga
6) Rhode Island vs. 11) USC
@Indianapolis
2) Michigan St vs. 15) Lehigh
7) West Virginia vs. 10) Monmouth
WEST
@Sacramento
1) Oregon vs. 16) Winthrop
8) Cincinnati vs. 9) St Mary's
@Orlando
4) Indiana vs. 13) Akron
5) Texas A&M vs. 12) Valparaiso
@Tulsa
3) Iowa St vs. 14) Texas-Arlington
6) California vs. 11) Florida St
@Greenville
2) North Carolina vs. 15) North Florida
7) Florida vs. 10) VCU
MIDWEST
@Tulsa
1) Kansas vs. 16) Sam Houston St
8) Colorado vs. 9) Marquette
@Orlando
4) Louisville vs. 13) Towson
5) Dayton vs. 12) Oklahoma/SMU
@Salt Lake City
3) Arizona vs. 14) UAB
6) Baylor vs. 11) Seton Hall
@Milwaukee
2) Wisconsin vs. 15) Weber St
7) Miami vs. 10) Texas
SOUTH
@Buffalo
1) Villanova vs. 16) Fairleigh Dickinson/South Carolina St
8) Wichita St vs. 9) Virginia Tech
@Salt Lake City
4) UConn vs. 13) North Dakota St
5) Purdue vs. 12) Harvard
@Buffalo
3) Virginia vs. 14) Belmont
6) Creighton vs. 11) San Diego St
@Indianapolis
2) Kentucky vs. 15) Vermont
7) Michigan vs. 10) Notre Dame
Sunday, October 9, 2016
Offseason bracketology 16-17
The 1 line: Duke, Kansas, Villanova, Oregon
The 2 line: Kentucky, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Virginia
The 3 line: Xavier, Michigan St, Arizona, Iowa St
The 4 line: Louisville, Indiana, California, Dayton
The 5 line: Purdue, UConn, Texas A&M, West Virginia
The 6 line: Baylor, Rhode Island, Marquette, Virginia Tech
The 7 line: Gonzaga, UCLA, Florida, Creighton
The 8 line: Michigan, Miami, Wichita St, Maryland
The 9 line: Colorado, Auburn, Cincinnati, Monmouth
The 10 line: Texas, St Mary's, Notre Dame, VCU
The 11 line: Florida St, USC, Seton Hall, Oklahoma, Davidson
The 12 line: New Mexico, Illinois St, Valparaiso, Harvard, San Diego St
The 13 line: Akron, Towson, Long Beach St, North Dakota St
The 14 line: Chattanooga, Texas-Arlington, Belmont, UAB
The 15 line: Weber St, Lehigh, Vermont, North Florida
The 16 line: Winthrop, Sam Houston St, Fairleigh Dickinson, New Mexico St, South Carolina St, Texas Southern
Next 4 in:
VCU
Florida St
USC
Seton Hall
Last 4 in:
Oklahoma
Davidson
New Mexico
Illinois St
Last 4 out:
Northwestern
SMU
Georgia
Northern Iowa
Next 4 out:
Pittsburgh
Ohio St
Alabama
Utah
Break it down!
ACC 8
Big 12 6
Big 10 6
Pac-12 6
Big East 5
SEC 4
A-10 4
WCC 2
MVC 2
AAC 2
MWC 2
The 2 line: Kentucky, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Virginia
The 3 line: Xavier, Michigan St, Arizona, Iowa St
The 4 line: Louisville, Indiana, California, Dayton
The 5 line: Purdue, UConn, Texas A&M, West Virginia
The 6 line: Baylor, Rhode Island, Marquette, Virginia Tech
The 7 line: Gonzaga, UCLA, Florida, Creighton
The 8 line: Michigan, Miami, Wichita St, Maryland
The 9 line: Colorado, Auburn, Cincinnati, Monmouth
The 10 line: Texas, St Mary's, Notre Dame, VCU
The 11 line: Florida St, USC, Seton Hall, Oklahoma, Davidson
The 12 line: New Mexico, Illinois St, Valparaiso, Harvard, San Diego St
The 13 line: Akron, Towson, Long Beach St, North Dakota St
The 14 line: Chattanooga, Texas-Arlington, Belmont, UAB
The 15 line: Weber St, Lehigh, Vermont, North Florida
The 16 line: Winthrop, Sam Houston St, Fairleigh Dickinson, New Mexico St, South Carolina St, Texas Southern
Next 4 in:
VCU
Florida St
USC
Seton Hall
Last 4 in:
Oklahoma
Davidson
New Mexico
Illinois St
Last 4 out:
Northwestern
SMU
Georgia
Northern Iowa
Next 4 out:
Pittsburgh
Ohio St
Alabama
Utah
Break it down!
ACC 8
Big 12 6
Big 10 6
Pac-12 6
Big East 5
SEC 4
A-10 4
WCC 2
MVC 2
AAC 2
MWC 2
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