This is part 27 of a 32-part series that will take a look at every conference and conference tournament in the country. We'll recap who's playing and what the stakes are for each team in the conference.
The standings:
Stephen F Austin 18-0 (25-5)
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 15-3 (24-6)
Sam Houston St 12-6 (17-14)
Incarnate Word 12-6 (17-12)
Houston Baptist 10-8 (16-15)
SE Louisiana 9-9 (11-20)
Abilene Christian 8-10 (13-18)
McNeese St 7-11 (9-19)
Nicholls St 6-12 (10-22)
New Orleans 6-12 (10-19)
Central Arkansas 6-12 (7-21)
Northwestern St 5-13 (8-20)
Lamar 3-15 (11-19)
Tournament format:
Ok, lots of info here. Katy, Texas hosts. Only the top 8 teams go. Abilene Christian and Incarnate Word are ineligible (still transitioning to D1). Central Arkansas is APR'd.
The bracket is double bye'd. The top 2 seeds have byes to the semis and the 3/4 seeds have a single bye. Wednesday March 9 to Saturday March 12.
The matchups:
1) Stephen F Austin vs. 4/5/8) Houston Baptist/SE Louisiana/New Orleans
2) Texas A&M-Corpus Christia vs. 3/6/7) Sam Houston St/McNeese St/Nicholls St
The stakes:
This conference was not good, skating down to 29th in the conference RPI. It's going to kill the seed of any conference champ, although both TAMU-CC and SFA did enough individually to avoid Dayton, and the 16 line for that matter. SFA does not have the type of resume it's had in previous years, so they'll be trapped pretty far back in the S-Curve. You can safely pencil them and TAMU-CC for the 15 line, and anyone else for Dayton.
There's a staggering 8 teams that are sub-300 RPI. How is that even possible. Sam Houston St and Incarnate Word are in the mid 100s in RPI, which is a downright miracle, and might get both into the postseason, at least. But man, it's a wasteland behind the top 4. Another reason why SFA's seed will get killed.
Tuesday, March 8, 2016
A-10 conference tournament preview
This is part 26 of a 32-part series that will take a look at every conference and conference tournament in the country. We'll recap who's playing and what the stakes are for each team in the conference.
The standings:
Dayton 14-4 (24-6)
VCU 14-4 (22-9)
St Bonaventure 14-4 (22-7)
St Joseph's 13-5 (24-7)
George Washington 11-7 (22-9)
Davidson 10-8 (18-11)
Rhode Island 9-9 (17-14)
Fordham 8-10 (17-12)
Richmond 7-11 (15-15)
UMass 6-12 (13-17)
Duquesne 6-12 (16-15)
George Mason 5-13 (11-20)
St Louis 5-13 (10-20)
LaSalle 4-14 (8-21)
Tournament format:
Brooklyn. All 14 teams from Wednesday March 9 to Sunday March 13.
The matchups:
1) Dayton vs. 8/9) Fordham/Richmond
4) St Joseph's vs. 5/12/13) George Washington/George Mason/St Louis
2) VCU vs. 7/10) Rhode Island/UMass
3) St Bonaventure vs. 6/11/14) Davidson/Duquesne/LaSalle
The stakes:
Dayton is playing for seeding, and there's too many variables with teams around them that analysis via the written word is a bit tough. Just know they can be as high as 4 or as low as 11, to be quite honest.
Let's tackle the three bubble teams one at a time. St Joe's. Bad loss avoidance right until the end when they finally took one to Duquesne. Solid metrics across the board, no weak links. Of course, the tradeoff is the 5 Top 100 wins aren't the greatest. I think they get in with bad loss avoidance...and with George Washington looming, they might not even get a chance to pick up a damaging loss. While they're not outstanding, they lack the red flag that the committee likes to use to keep teams out. SoS is fine. Road/neutral is more than fine.
St Bonaventure has mostly erased their non-con sins. It's a weird resume in that it's loaded with good but not great teams. Beat Buffalo, Ohio, Vermont, lose to Hofstra, Syracuse, Siena. But the pile of conference wins is good. Here's another case where I think it's more important to have bad loss avoidance than anything else, and even Davidson wouldn't hurt them too much. I think they're okay too, but just win that quarterfinal game to be sure, k?
VCU is a little behind, IMO. They have basically the same resume as the two Saints, minus one key component: a signature win over a sure tourney team. Now, yes, that team is Dayton in both cases, but still. VCU lacks that win over a sure tourney team, even though they beat both Bonaventure and Joseph head to head. That seems insane on the surface, but yeah. VCU beat both Saints and are right behind them in the S-Curve. Being on the opposite side of Dayton hurts here...I wouldn't chance losing to Bonaventure in the semis if I were VCU. It's a delicate situation for VCU because their resume is in line with the two Saints, minus that signature win.
George Washington is a bit further off the pace. Would beating St Joe's be enough? Doubtful, but possible. St Joe's plus Dayton? Now we're talking. That might very well do it.
The NIT will have a decision with Davidson, who has the RPI but not much else working for it in the resume. I think they'll squeak in, and the door will close in front of URI. We'll see if anyone plays in another tourney. I doubt the likes of Richmond or URI would turn out, but I could see Fordham or Duquesne opt in.
The standings:
Dayton 14-4 (24-6)
VCU 14-4 (22-9)
St Bonaventure 14-4 (22-7)
St Joseph's 13-5 (24-7)
George Washington 11-7 (22-9)
Davidson 10-8 (18-11)
Rhode Island 9-9 (17-14)
Fordham 8-10 (17-12)
Richmond 7-11 (15-15)
UMass 6-12 (13-17)
Duquesne 6-12 (16-15)
George Mason 5-13 (11-20)
St Louis 5-13 (10-20)
LaSalle 4-14 (8-21)
Tournament format:
Brooklyn. All 14 teams from Wednesday March 9 to Sunday March 13.
The matchups:
1) Dayton vs. 8/9) Fordham/Richmond
4) St Joseph's vs. 5/12/13) George Washington/George Mason/St Louis
2) VCU vs. 7/10) Rhode Island/UMass
3) St Bonaventure vs. 6/11/14) Davidson/Duquesne/LaSalle
The stakes:
Dayton is playing for seeding, and there's too many variables with teams around them that analysis via the written word is a bit tough. Just know they can be as high as 4 or as low as 11, to be quite honest.
Let's tackle the three bubble teams one at a time. St Joe's. Bad loss avoidance right until the end when they finally took one to Duquesne. Solid metrics across the board, no weak links. Of course, the tradeoff is the 5 Top 100 wins aren't the greatest. I think they get in with bad loss avoidance...and with George Washington looming, they might not even get a chance to pick up a damaging loss. While they're not outstanding, they lack the red flag that the committee likes to use to keep teams out. SoS is fine. Road/neutral is more than fine.
St Bonaventure has mostly erased their non-con sins. It's a weird resume in that it's loaded with good but not great teams. Beat Buffalo, Ohio, Vermont, lose to Hofstra, Syracuse, Siena. But the pile of conference wins is good. Here's another case where I think it's more important to have bad loss avoidance than anything else, and even Davidson wouldn't hurt them too much. I think they're okay too, but just win that quarterfinal game to be sure, k?
VCU is a little behind, IMO. They have basically the same resume as the two Saints, minus one key component: a signature win over a sure tourney team. Now, yes, that team is Dayton in both cases, but still. VCU lacks that win over a sure tourney team, even though they beat both Bonaventure and Joseph head to head. That seems insane on the surface, but yeah. VCU beat both Saints and are right behind them in the S-Curve. Being on the opposite side of Dayton hurts here...I wouldn't chance losing to Bonaventure in the semis if I were VCU. It's a delicate situation for VCU because their resume is in line with the two Saints, minus that signature win.
George Washington is a bit further off the pace. Would beating St Joe's be enough? Doubtful, but possible. St Joe's plus Dayton? Now we're talking. That might very well do it.
The NIT will have a decision with Davidson, who has the RPI but not much else working for it in the resume. I think they'll squeak in, and the door will close in front of URI. We'll see if anyone plays in another tourney. I doubt the likes of Richmond or URI would turn out, but I could see Fordham or Duquesne opt in.
SEC conference tournament preview
This is part 25 of a 32-part series that will take a look at every conference and conference tournament in the country. We'll recap who's playing and what the stakes are for each team in the conference.
The standings:
Texas A&M 13-5 (24-7)
Kentucky 13-5 (23-8)
South Carolina 11-7 (24-7)
LSU 11-7 (18-13)
Vanderbilt 11-7 (19-12)
Ole Miss 10-8 (20-11)
Georgia 10-8 (17-12)
Florida 9-9 (18-13)
Arkansas 9-9 (16-15)
Alabama 8-10 (17-13)
Mississippi St 7-11 (14-16)
Tennessee 6-12 (13-18)
Auburn 5-13 (11-19)
Missouri 3-15 (10-21)
Tournament format:
Everyone but Mizzou heads to Nashville. Wednesday March 9 to Sunday March 13.
The matchups:
1) Texas A&M vs. 8/9) Florida/Arkansas
4) LSU vs. 5/12/13) Vanderbilt/Tennessee/Auburn
2) Kentucky vs. 7/10) Ole Miss/Alabama
3) South Carolina vs. 6/11) Georgia/Mississippi St
The stakes:
Kentucky and A&M play for protected seeding, but it almost feels like their seed will merely be a result of a chain reaction of results from other conferences. There's no win in this conference available to either, before the finals, that would move the needle. And with a Sunday finish, the final ends too close to the selection show; therefore a quality win by one over the other will be ignored. They're simply going to take whatever is available after teams around them play their impact games.
South Carolina has one bullet to dodge, then a loss to Kentucky would be acceptable for them. The real danger could be if Kentucky loses, then South Carolina has to win twice to avoid serious profile damage. They'll get away with an ugly non-con SoS with just enough bad loss avoidance.
The bubble gets a bit messy. Vandy has to play an extra game and then gets a no-win proposition with LSU. Winning that game is probably mandatory, then a loss to A&M wouldn't hurt them and they'd be home free. I'm really not a fan of the profile, though, it relies on two home wins over the two conference leaders. They could easily miss, even if they beat LSU, so stay tuned.
Florida's trapped itself in an awful spot - they need a quality win to get back to the right side of the bubble, and they have to win twice and beat A&M to do it. Good news? That win could be enough. Bad news? That's not an easy win to get. Alabama's in the same situation, with Kentucky in their way instead. However, Alabama might even need another win on top of that. Bottom line: the lack of depth in the conference is going to hurt these teams trying to play their way up. Resumes are flawed because of the number of losses. To be fair, they did schedule up. Imagine how much worse the situation would be without the overall SoS boost everyone is providing each other.
LSU is so far gone from the bubble that Vandy+A&M won't be enough, and a loss to Vandy brings the NIT bubble into play. In fact, the NIT bubble as a whole could be a mess. As it stands, you'd have Florida and Alabama going there, and maybe Vandy, and probably LSU, and Georgia is squarely in the middle of the NIT field. That's 4, maybe 5 teams in the NIT already and we've got a 20-win Ole Miss team and a .500 Arkansas team to deal with too. how many of these teams can get in? With that in mind, I think Arkansas and Ole Miss are definitely out (even beating Kentucky or A&M won't be enough), and one of LSU and Georgia will be a legit bubble team. Right now I think that's advantage LSU over Georgia.
The standings:
Texas A&M 13-5 (24-7)
Kentucky 13-5 (23-8)
South Carolina 11-7 (24-7)
LSU 11-7 (18-13)
Vanderbilt 11-7 (19-12)
Ole Miss 10-8 (20-11)
Georgia 10-8 (17-12)
Florida 9-9 (18-13)
Arkansas 9-9 (16-15)
Alabama 8-10 (17-13)
Mississippi St 7-11 (14-16)
Tennessee 6-12 (13-18)
Auburn 5-13 (11-19)
Missouri 3-15 (10-21)
Tournament format:
Everyone but Mizzou heads to Nashville. Wednesday March 9 to Sunday March 13.
The matchups:
1) Texas A&M vs. 8/9) Florida/Arkansas
4) LSU vs. 5/12/13) Vanderbilt/Tennessee/Auburn
2) Kentucky vs. 7/10) Ole Miss/Alabama
3) South Carolina vs. 6/11) Georgia/Mississippi St
The stakes:
Kentucky and A&M play for protected seeding, but it almost feels like their seed will merely be a result of a chain reaction of results from other conferences. There's no win in this conference available to either, before the finals, that would move the needle. And with a Sunday finish, the final ends too close to the selection show; therefore a quality win by one over the other will be ignored. They're simply going to take whatever is available after teams around them play their impact games.
South Carolina has one bullet to dodge, then a loss to Kentucky would be acceptable for them. The real danger could be if Kentucky loses, then South Carolina has to win twice to avoid serious profile damage. They'll get away with an ugly non-con SoS with just enough bad loss avoidance.
The bubble gets a bit messy. Vandy has to play an extra game and then gets a no-win proposition with LSU. Winning that game is probably mandatory, then a loss to A&M wouldn't hurt them and they'd be home free. I'm really not a fan of the profile, though, it relies on two home wins over the two conference leaders. They could easily miss, even if they beat LSU, so stay tuned.
Florida's trapped itself in an awful spot - they need a quality win to get back to the right side of the bubble, and they have to win twice and beat A&M to do it. Good news? That win could be enough. Bad news? That's not an easy win to get. Alabama's in the same situation, with Kentucky in their way instead. However, Alabama might even need another win on top of that. Bottom line: the lack of depth in the conference is going to hurt these teams trying to play their way up. Resumes are flawed because of the number of losses. To be fair, they did schedule up. Imagine how much worse the situation would be without the overall SoS boost everyone is providing each other.
LSU is so far gone from the bubble that Vandy+A&M won't be enough, and a loss to Vandy brings the NIT bubble into play. In fact, the NIT bubble as a whole could be a mess. As it stands, you'd have Florida and Alabama going there, and maybe Vandy, and probably LSU, and Georgia is squarely in the middle of the NIT field. That's 4, maybe 5 teams in the NIT already and we've got a 20-win Ole Miss team and a .500 Arkansas team to deal with too. how many of these teams can get in? With that in mind, I think Arkansas and Ole Miss are definitely out (even beating Kentucky or A&M won't be enough), and one of LSU and Georgia will be a legit bubble team. Right now I think that's advantage LSU over Georgia.
Pac-12 conference tournament preview
This is part 24 of a 32-part series that will take a look at every conference and conference tournament in the country. We'll recap who's playing and what the stakes are for each team in the conference.
The standings:
Oregon 14-4 (25-6)
Utah 13-5 (24-7)
California 12-6 (22-9)
Arizona 12-6 (24-7)
Colorado 10-8 (21-10)
Oregon St 9-9 (18-11)
USC 9-9 (20-11)
Washington 9-9 (17-13)
Stanford 8-10 (15-14)
UCLA 6-12 (15-16)
Arizona St 4-13 (15-16)
Washington St 1-17 (9-21)
Tournament format:
Vegas. Wednesday March 9 to Saturday March 12. Bill Walton figures to be prominently involved.
The matchups:
1) Oregon vs. 8/9) Washington/Stanford
4) Arizona vs. 5/12) Colorado/Washington St
2) Utah vs. 7/10) USC/UCLA
3) California vs. 6/11) Oregon St/Arizona St
The stakes:
Can Oregon get to the 1 line? Nah. They absorbed a couple too many body blows. They're mostly playing to stay on the 2 line. However, does it even matter? Thanks to geography, they're a lock to play in Spokane. And when I did my brackets, the chances of Oregon playing in the west regional actually increased when they were a top 3 seed instead of the last 2 seed. The reason being, as the last 2 seed, they got last priority for geography, and conference conflicts moved them around. As the top 3 seed, they are more likely to get the west regional as their priority. Therefore, winning this tournament might actually get Oregon shipped away from the west regional. Go figure.
Can Utah get to the 2 line? Possible, especially if they get Cal and Oregon as scalps. More likely they're competing to stay on the 3 line, although again, remember the east-west balance this year. It just might not matter much where Utah exactly falls.
Arizona and Cal are reasonable candidates for a 4 seed if they get one signature win (or two). However, both have a glaring red flag (Arizona's non-con SoS; Cal's road record). They don't stack up well compared to, say, the Iowa St/Texas/Baylor grouping from the Big 12, or Purdue/Iowa, or perhaps A&M. While they're in that 4-6 range, one bad loss could really be damaging and send them towards the bottom of a tier at the 7 line.
Colorado is a lock, USC is a lock. I'd rather neith lose their layup first game to make things easy on me. They could do big damage to their seeds.
Oregon St is your bubble team. Do they need to get past Cal? They've got 5 conference wins over legit tourney teams, but all are home. They could really use that neutral site boon. They have the feel of a classic Good Bad team that wins the quality games at home and loses the quality games on the road. My hunch is the wins elevate the profile, but it's a true tossup if they lose to Cal.
I think Washington has absorbed too many body blows. Now, beating Oregon and Arizona can change that, but we'll wait for that to happen before we talk. Stanford has 12 top 35 losses. That's almost impossible to do. Too many body blows here too, even if they run out to the finals. I think. Only 2 true road wins makes things unmanageable.
Remember back in January when 11 of the 12 teams were legit contenders? Someone had to absorb losses for the betterment of the group, and that task fell upon UCLA and Arizona St. No postseason for them.
The standings:
Oregon 14-4 (25-6)
Utah 13-5 (24-7)
California 12-6 (22-9)
Arizona 12-6 (24-7)
Colorado 10-8 (21-10)
Oregon St 9-9 (18-11)
USC 9-9 (20-11)
Washington 9-9 (17-13)
Stanford 8-10 (15-14)
UCLA 6-12 (15-16)
Arizona St 4-13 (15-16)
Washington St 1-17 (9-21)
Tournament format:
Vegas. Wednesday March 9 to Saturday March 12. Bill Walton figures to be prominently involved.
The matchups:
1) Oregon vs. 8/9) Washington/Stanford
4) Arizona vs. 5/12) Colorado/Washington St
2) Utah vs. 7/10) USC/UCLA
3) California vs. 6/11) Oregon St/Arizona St
The stakes:
Can Oregon get to the 1 line? Nah. They absorbed a couple too many body blows. They're mostly playing to stay on the 2 line. However, does it even matter? Thanks to geography, they're a lock to play in Spokane. And when I did my brackets, the chances of Oregon playing in the west regional actually increased when they were a top 3 seed instead of the last 2 seed. The reason being, as the last 2 seed, they got last priority for geography, and conference conflicts moved them around. As the top 3 seed, they are more likely to get the west regional as their priority. Therefore, winning this tournament might actually get Oregon shipped away from the west regional. Go figure.
Can Utah get to the 2 line? Possible, especially if they get Cal and Oregon as scalps. More likely they're competing to stay on the 3 line, although again, remember the east-west balance this year. It just might not matter much where Utah exactly falls.
Arizona and Cal are reasonable candidates for a 4 seed if they get one signature win (or two). However, both have a glaring red flag (Arizona's non-con SoS; Cal's road record). They don't stack up well compared to, say, the Iowa St/Texas/Baylor grouping from the Big 12, or Purdue/Iowa, or perhaps A&M. While they're in that 4-6 range, one bad loss could really be damaging and send them towards the bottom of a tier at the 7 line.
Colorado is a lock, USC is a lock. I'd rather neith lose their layup first game to make things easy on me. They could do big damage to their seeds.
Oregon St is your bubble team. Do they need to get past Cal? They've got 5 conference wins over legit tourney teams, but all are home. They could really use that neutral site boon. They have the feel of a classic Good Bad team that wins the quality games at home and loses the quality games on the road. My hunch is the wins elevate the profile, but it's a true tossup if they lose to Cal.
I think Washington has absorbed too many body blows. Now, beating Oregon and Arizona can change that, but we'll wait for that to happen before we talk. Stanford has 12 top 35 losses. That's almost impossible to do. Too many body blows here too, even if they run out to the finals. I think. Only 2 true road wins makes things unmanageable.
Remember back in January when 11 of the 12 teams were legit contenders? Someone had to absorb losses for the betterment of the group, and that task fell upon UCLA and Arizona St. No postseason for them.
Big 10 conference tournament preview
This is part 23 of a 32-part series that will take a look at every conference and conference tournament in the country. We'll recap who's playing and what the stakes are for each team in the conference.
The standings:
Indiana 15-3 (25-6)
Michigan St 13-5 (26-5)
Maryland 12-6 (24-7)
Purdue 12-6 (24-7)
Iowa 12-6 (21-9)
Wisconsin 12-6 (20-11)
Ohio St 11-7 (19-12)
Michigan 10-8 (20-11)
Northwestern 8-10 (20-11)
Penn St 7-11 (16-15)
Nebraska 6-12 (14-17)
Illinois 5-13 (13-18)
Minnesota 2-16 (8-22)
Rutgers 1-17 (7-24)
Tournament format:
Indianapolis, from Wednesday March 9 to Sunday March 13. Scheduled end of the title game is the scheduled beginning of the selection show. WHAT IS WRONG WITH YOU CBS AND NCAA WHY DON'T YOU DEMAND A ONE OR TWO HOUR LAYOVER. IT IS INSANE TO EXPECT THE COMMITTEE TO TURN OVER A BRACKET IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FINAL GAME IS PLAYED; THIS IS HOW BAD SEEDS AND BAD BRACKETS HAPPEN OH MY GOD rant over.
The matchups:
1) Indiana vs. 8/9) Michigan/Northwestern
4) Purdue vs. 5/12/13) Iowa/Illinois/Minnesota
2) Michigan St vs. 7/10) Ohio St/Penn St
3) Maryland vs. 6/11/14) Wisconsin/Nebraska/Rutgers
The stakes:
Michigan St has everything they need for the 1 seed except for Indiana ruining everything. Well, maybe a better non-con SoS too. But they need a conference crown to buttress the resume, or the 1 seed will disappear. This has the nasty effect of making the selection committee draw contingencies, because Michigan St is likely a 1 seed with the title and likely a 2 or 3 seed without. Aargh.
Indiana has moved into a default position ahead of Maryland/Purdue on the S-Curve with their title, but their non-con SoS is marginal, probably leaving them with too much ground between them and the 1 line. The 2 line is definitely doable though. It's probably not quite safe to say they're definitively ahead of Maryland and Purdue; either can jump Indiana with a title here. However, their cases for the 2 line are a bit more tenuous, even if they play the best possible opponents on the way through. It's quite likely these three teams will end up on the 3 or 4 line apiece, with maybe a stray 5 seed. Strong enough to avoid the flawed teams on the 6-7 lines, not strong enough for the 2 line. And the order of these teams are very variable, still.
Iowa's kinda fallen a half-step behind those three. I wouldn't discount their chances of getting back into the middle of the Maryland/Purdue/Indiana battle, but I no longer think they can come out on top of all 3 of them. Iowa/Purdue is going to go a long ways towards solving things, and Indiana playing the winner could make things very solvent. Maryland being trapped on the other side of the draw complicates things.
Wisconsin is in the lockbox, but they're another half-step behind Iowa with those ugly losses. I can maybe buy a 4 seed, but, man, with those losses I just can't go higher, even if they go on a Maryland/MSU/Indiana run.
Michigan's your one bubble team, and they wound up in a tough but great spot. Once they beat Northwestern, it's probably a win-and-in game with Indiana. In a perfect world, they'd have a more beatable opponent like Wisky that can help the resume, but them's the breaks. Beat Indiana and you're probably in, lose and you're probably out.
Ohio St needs multiple big wins to have a chance, and, well, at least Michigan St and Maryland line up for them. Get those two and we'll have a discussion.
I think Ohio St is the only NIT team from here. Northwestern is next up but the resume is too thin. Penn St out as well. Perhaps one or more consider Vegas or the CBI.
The standings:
Indiana 15-3 (25-6)
Michigan St 13-5 (26-5)
Maryland 12-6 (24-7)
Purdue 12-6 (24-7)
Iowa 12-6 (21-9)
Wisconsin 12-6 (20-11)
Ohio St 11-7 (19-12)
Michigan 10-8 (20-11)
Northwestern 8-10 (20-11)
Penn St 7-11 (16-15)
Nebraska 6-12 (14-17)
Illinois 5-13 (13-18)
Minnesota 2-16 (8-22)
Rutgers 1-17 (7-24)
Tournament format:
Indianapolis, from Wednesday March 9 to Sunday March 13. Scheduled end of the title game is the scheduled beginning of the selection show. WHAT IS WRONG WITH YOU CBS AND NCAA WHY DON'T YOU DEMAND A ONE OR TWO HOUR LAYOVER. IT IS INSANE TO EXPECT THE COMMITTEE TO TURN OVER A BRACKET IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FINAL GAME IS PLAYED; THIS IS HOW BAD SEEDS AND BAD BRACKETS HAPPEN OH MY GOD rant over.
The matchups:
1) Indiana vs. 8/9) Michigan/Northwestern
4) Purdue vs. 5/12/13) Iowa/Illinois/Minnesota
2) Michigan St vs. 7/10) Ohio St/Penn St
3) Maryland vs. 6/11/14) Wisconsin/Nebraska/Rutgers
The stakes:
Michigan St has everything they need for the 1 seed except for Indiana ruining everything. Well, maybe a better non-con SoS too. But they need a conference crown to buttress the resume, or the 1 seed will disappear. This has the nasty effect of making the selection committee draw contingencies, because Michigan St is likely a 1 seed with the title and likely a 2 or 3 seed without. Aargh.
Indiana has moved into a default position ahead of Maryland/Purdue on the S-Curve with their title, but their non-con SoS is marginal, probably leaving them with too much ground between them and the 1 line. The 2 line is definitely doable though. It's probably not quite safe to say they're definitively ahead of Maryland and Purdue; either can jump Indiana with a title here. However, their cases for the 2 line are a bit more tenuous, even if they play the best possible opponents on the way through. It's quite likely these three teams will end up on the 3 or 4 line apiece, with maybe a stray 5 seed. Strong enough to avoid the flawed teams on the 6-7 lines, not strong enough for the 2 line. And the order of these teams are very variable, still.
Iowa's kinda fallen a half-step behind those three. I wouldn't discount their chances of getting back into the middle of the Maryland/Purdue/Indiana battle, but I no longer think they can come out on top of all 3 of them. Iowa/Purdue is going to go a long ways towards solving things, and Indiana playing the winner could make things very solvent. Maryland being trapped on the other side of the draw complicates things.
Wisconsin is in the lockbox, but they're another half-step behind Iowa with those ugly losses. I can maybe buy a 4 seed, but, man, with those losses I just can't go higher, even if they go on a Maryland/MSU/Indiana run.
Michigan's your one bubble team, and they wound up in a tough but great spot. Once they beat Northwestern, it's probably a win-and-in game with Indiana. In a perfect world, they'd have a more beatable opponent like Wisky that can help the resume, but them's the breaks. Beat Indiana and you're probably in, lose and you're probably out.
Ohio St needs multiple big wins to have a chance, and, well, at least Michigan St and Maryland line up for them. Get those two and we'll have a discussion.
I think Ohio St is the only NIT team from here. Northwestern is next up but the resume is too thin. Penn St out as well. Perhaps one or more consider Vegas or the CBI.
Monday, March 7, 2016
3/8 S-CURVE
The 1 line: Kansas (26-4), Villanova (27-4), Virginia (24-6), Michigan St (26-5)
The 2 line: North Carolina (25-6), Oklahoma (24-7), Xavier (26-4), Oregon (24-6)
The 3 line: West Virginia (24-7), Miami (24-6), Indiana (25-6), Utah (23-7)
The 4 line: Kentucky (23-8), Maryland (23-7), Iowa St (21-10), Duke (22-9)
The 5 line: Purdue (24-7), Texas (20-11), Arizona (24-7), Texas A&M (24-7)
The 6 line: Iowa (21-9), Baylor (20-10), California (22-9), Dayton (24-6)
The 7 line: Notre Dame (20-10), Seton Hall (22-8), Wisconsin (20-11), Colorado (20-10)
The 8 line: Providence (22-9), USC (20-11), Texas Tech (19-11), South Carolina (23-7)
The 9 line: St Bonaventure (22-7), Pittsburgh (19-10), Butler (21-9), St Mary's (26-4)
The 10 line: Syracuse (19-12), Monmouth (27-7), Wichita St (23-8), St Joseph's (24-7),
The 11 line: Vanderbilt (19-12), Gonzaga (24-7), Cincinnati (22-9), UConn (21-10), Temple (20-10), San Diego St (21-8)
The 12 line: Northern Iowa (21-12), South Dakota St (23-7), UNC-Wilmington (23-7), Arkansas-Little Rock (25-4)
The 13 line: Akron (23-7), Chattanooga (27-5), Stony Brook (23-6), Yale (21-6)
The 14 line: Hawaii (22-5), Iona (22-10), UAB (25-5), Stephen F Austin (21-5)
The 15 line: Wright St (20-12), New Mexico St (20-9), Weber St (20-8), UNC-Asheville (20-11),
The 16 line: Lehigh (16-14), Wagner (21-9), Hampton (17-10), Texas Southern (17-13), FGCU (16-13), Austin Peay (16-17)
For the last time this year, let's expand the section below, to capture the full bubble picture, from the newly locked to the barely alive hoping for a miracle.
Into the lockbox:
Seton Hall
Wisconsin
Colorado
Providence
USC
Texas Tech
Bubble in:
South Carolina
St Bonaventure
Pittsburgh
Butler
St Mary's***
Next 4 in:
Syracuse
Monmouth
Wichita St
St Joseph's
Last 4 in:
Vanderbilt
Gonzaga
Cincinnati
UConn
Last 4 out:
Oregon St
Michigan
Tulsa
VCU
Next 4 out:
Valparaiso
Florida St
Florida
Temple***
Houston
Deep bubble:
San Diego St***
Hofstra
Georgia Tech
Ohio St
Washington
George Washington
Alabama
Arkansas-Little Rock***
Beyond this point, I just can't buy a scenario for anyone to get all the way through to the cutline, unless you want to count a bad major conference team (think Georgia, Kansas St, Creighton) making a massive runout.
The 2 line: North Carolina (25-6), Oklahoma (24-7), Xavier (26-4), Oregon (24-6)
The 3 line: West Virginia (24-7), Miami (24-6), Indiana (25-6), Utah (23-7)
The 4 line: Kentucky (23-8), Maryland (23-7), Iowa St (21-10), Duke (22-9)
The 5 line: Purdue (24-7), Texas (20-11), Arizona (24-7), Texas A&M (24-7)
The 6 line: Iowa (21-9), Baylor (20-10), California (22-9), Dayton (24-6)
The 7 line: Notre Dame (20-10), Seton Hall (22-8), Wisconsin (20-11), Colorado (20-10)
The 8 line: Providence (22-9), USC (20-11), Texas Tech (19-11), South Carolina (23-7)
The 9 line: St Bonaventure (22-7), Pittsburgh (19-10), Butler (21-9), St Mary's (26-4)
The 10 line: Syracuse (19-12), Monmouth (27-7), Wichita St (23-8), St Joseph's (24-7),
The 11 line: Vanderbilt (19-12), Gonzaga (24-7), Cincinnati (22-9), UConn (21-10), Temple (20-10), San Diego St (21-8)
The 12 line: Northern Iowa (21-12), South Dakota St (23-7), UNC-Wilmington (23-7), Arkansas-Little Rock (25-4)
The 13 line: Akron (23-7), Chattanooga (27-5), Stony Brook (23-6), Yale (21-6)
The 14 line: Hawaii (22-5), Iona (22-10), UAB (25-5), Stephen F Austin (21-5)
The 15 line: Wright St (20-12), New Mexico St (20-9), Weber St (20-8), UNC-Asheville (20-11),
The 16 line: Lehigh (16-14), Wagner (21-9), Hampton (17-10), Texas Southern (17-13), FGCU (16-13), Austin Peay (16-17)
For the last time this year, let's expand the section below, to capture the full bubble picture, from the newly locked to the barely alive hoping for a miracle.
Into the lockbox:
Seton Hall
Wisconsin
Colorado
Providence
USC
Texas Tech
Bubble in:
South Carolina
St Bonaventure
Pittsburgh
Butler
St Mary's***
Next 4 in:
Syracuse
Monmouth
Wichita St
St Joseph's
Last 4 in:
Vanderbilt
Gonzaga
Cincinnati
UConn
Last 4 out:
Oregon St
Michigan
Tulsa
VCU
Next 4 out:
Valparaiso
Florida St
Florida
Temple***
Houston
Deep bubble:
San Diego St***
Hofstra
Georgia Tech
Ohio St
Washington
George Washington
Alabama
Arkansas-Little Rock***
Beyond this point, I just can't buy a scenario for anyone to get all the way through to the cutline, unless you want to count a bad major conference team (think Georgia, Kansas St, Creighton) making a massive runout.
3/7 recap
CAA finals:
UNC-Wilmington 80, Hofstra 73 (OT) - I wouldn't be surprised if Hofstra shows up on a last 4 out list from the committee, just as a token salute to the CAA as a whole this year
MAAC finals:
Iona 79, Monmouth 76 - great, bubble discussion with Monmouth. I'm already sick of it. This is going to be a fun week
SoCon finals:
Chattanooga 73, East Tennessee St 67 - yay, all my Chattanooga at-large talk throughout the year gets erased!
WCC semifinals:
St Mary's 81, Pepperdine 66
Gonzaga 88, BYU 84 - while everyone else messed around, the two bubble teams here keep their nose clean. Other bubble teams' rooting interest? Cede the bid to St Mary's and root against Gonzaga
Summit semifinals:
North Dakota St 69, IPFW 68 - 1 seed down. Might not be a NIT bid poaching situation is South Dakota St beats NDSU though, because SDSU is a probable NIT at-large team
South Dakota St 54, Denver 53
Horizon semifinals:
Green Bay 99, Valparaiso 92 (OT) - Valpo to the at-large board. Worst case scenario for them is Monmouth and Wichita are already on that board, and Valpo doesn't compare well to them. Valpo kinda needs to be the lone mid-major on that board against the upper majors to have a chance, because they trail a couple other mid-majors
Wright St 59, Oakland 55 - oh and there goes the 2 seed too. This might be a brutal seed for the conference next week
A-East semifinals:
Stony Brook 80, Hartford 64
Vermont 63, New Hampshire 56
MAC first round:
Bowling Green 70, Kent St 69
Miami(OH) 49, Ball St 47
Eastern Michigan 69, Toledo 60
Northern Illinois 56, Western Michigan 50
MEAC first round:
Savannah St 63, Delaware 58
Coppin St 98, North Carolina A&T 91 (2OT)
UNC-Wilmington 80, Hofstra 73 (OT) - I wouldn't be surprised if Hofstra shows up on a last 4 out list from the committee, just as a token salute to the CAA as a whole this year
MAAC finals:
Iona 79, Monmouth 76 - great, bubble discussion with Monmouth. I'm already sick of it. This is going to be a fun week
SoCon finals:
Chattanooga 73, East Tennessee St 67 - yay, all my Chattanooga at-large talk throughout the year gets erased!
WCC semifinals:
St Mary's 81, Pepperdine 66
Gonzaga 88, BYU 84 - while everyone else messed around, the two bubble teams here keep their nose clean. Other bubble teams' rooting interest? Cede the bid to St Mary's and root against Gonzaga
Summit semifinals:
North Dakota St 69, IPFW 68 - 1 seed down. Might not be a NIT bid poaching situation is South Dakota St beats NDSU though, because SDSU is a probable NIT at-large team
South Dakota St 54, Denver 53
Horizon semifinals:
Green Bay 99, Valparaiso 92 (OT) - Valpo to the at-large board. Worst case scenario for them is Monmouth and Wichita are already on that board, and Valpo doesn't compare well to them. Valpo kinda needs to be the lone mid-major on that board against the upper majors to have a chance, because they trail a couple other mid-majors
Wright St 59, Oakland 55 - oh and there goes the 2 seed too. This might be a brutal seed for the conference next week
A-East semifinals:
Stony Brook 80, Hartford 64
Vermont 63, New Hampshire 56
MAC first round:
Bowling Green 70, Kent St 69
Miami(OH) 49, Ball St 47
Eastern Michigan 69, Toledo 60
Northern Illinois 56, Western Michigan 50
MEAC first round:
Savannah St 63, Delaware 58
Coppin St 98, North Carolina A&T 91 (2OT)
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