Catastrophic loss of the day:
@UNLV 80, Oregon 69 - okay, this isn't too bad, really
Kansas St 68, @Georgia 66 - this, however, is kinda bad
Notables:
@Wake Forest 88, Arkansas 85
St Joseph's 80, @Columbia 78
Alabama 58, @Southern Miss 55
@Missouri 78, Northern Illinois 71
Cupcake winners: Maryland, Pitt, Old Dominion, Texas, St Mary's
Saturday, December 5, 2015
Friday, December 4, 2015
There's a new postseason tournament
Yes, that means we have FIVE postseason tournaments this year.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/25373904/college-basketball-getting-new-postseason-tournament-in-vegas
I won't regurgitate the info here, but the gist is this: a 16-team tournament, but all played on a neutral site (Vegas, naturally).
What does this mean? Actually more than you think.
NCAA as the #1 tournament and NIT as the #2 tournament will stay that way forever.
Right now we have the CBI (16 teams) and CIT (32 teams) to cover additional postseason needs. CBI seems to cater to higher-major teams, and the CIT actively avoids anyone who's not a mid-major. However, both charge a fee to any team that hosts a game in their tournament. This, plus the general stigma of playing in a marginal postseason tournament, leads some teams to decline postseason bids.
The new Vegas 16 is a neutral site game, and is a 5 day commitment. The CBI/CIT may require home games, and a 2-3 week commitment. You will see some teams choose Vegas over the CBI/CIT because of the less commitment required. My guess is you'll see more mid-majors stay in the CIT where they can play at home and in front of fans, while more high-majors head to Vegas for a one-off.
A big key here is the different format - some programs will like the idea of a single-elimination tournament beginning and ending in the same week instead of over 3 weeks, and just one neutral site location instead of fluid travel plans.
The one obstacle? Before this year, 148 teams made the postseason out of 351 in D-1. Adding this, 148 bumps up to 164. That's a lot of teams, and the ends of all 3 fields (Vegas, CBI, CIT) might be weak.
Who will this hurt? Likely the CBI. High-major teams that would usually choose the CBI will likely choose Vegas instead. I wouldn't be surprised if the CBI dies next year, or even this year. I think the CIT will remain as is for the foreseeable future. The CIT specifically caters itself to the low-majors. They know their market, and they serve it well enough.
Having the Vegas 16 is overkill, unless it successfully kills off the CBI.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/25373904/college-basketball-getting-new-postseason-tournament-in-vegas
I won't regurgitate the info here, but the gist is this: a 16-team tournament, but all played on a neutral site (Vegas, naturally).
What does this mean? Actually more than you think.
NCAA as the #1 tournament and NIT as the #2 tournament will stay that way forever.
Right now we have the CBI (16 teams) and CIT (32 teams) to cover additional postseason needs. CBI seems to cater to higher-major teams, and the CIT actively avoids anyone who's not a mid-major. However, both charge a fee to any team that hosts a game in their tournament. This, plus the general stigma of playing in a marginal postseason tournament, leads some teams to decline postseason bids.
The new Vegas 16 is a neutral site game, and is a 5 day commitment. The CBI/CIT may require home games, and a 2-3 week commitment. You will see some teams choose Vegas over the CBI/CIT because of the less commitment required. My guess is you'll see more mid-majors stay in the CIT where they can play at home and in front of fans, while more high-majors head to Vegas for a one-off.
A big key here is the different format - some programs will like the idea of a single-elimination tournament beginning and ending in the same week instead of over 3 weeks, and just one neutral site location instead of fluid travel plans.
The one obstacle? Before this year, 148 teams made the postseason out of 351 in D-1. Adding this, 148 bumps up to 164. That's a lot of teams, and the ends of all 3 fields (Vegas, CBI, CIT) might be weak.
Who will this hurt? Likely the CBI. High-major teams that would usually choose the CBI will likely choose Vegas instead. I wouldn't be surprised if the CBI dies next year, or even this year. I think the CIT will remain as is for the foreseeable future. The CIT specifically caters itself to the low-majors. They know their market, and they serve it well enough.
Having the Vegas 16 is overkill, unless it successfully kills off the CBI.
12/3 recap
Signature win of the day:
@UCLA 87, Kentucky 77 - self-explanatory
Catastrophic loss of the day:
Long Beach St 83, @Colorado St 77 - now obviously LBSU is good, but at home, needing to build an at-large resume, this is damaging
Quality wins:
@Valparaiso 61, Belmont 57
USC 75, @UCSB 63 - road wins!
Cupcake winners: Oklahoma, Texas-Arlington
@UCLA 87, Kentucky 77 - self-explanatory
Catastrophic loss of the day:
Long Beach St 83, @Colorado St 77 - now obviously LBSU is good, but at home, needing to build an at-large resume, this is damaging
Quality wins:
@Valparaiso 61, Belmont 57
USC 75, @UCSB 63 - road wins!
Cupcake winners: Oklahoma, Texas-Arlington
Thursday, December 3, 2015
12/2 recap
B1G/ACC:
@Michigan St 71, Louisville 67 - UL will be fine and MSU is streaking towards the 1 line
@Duke 94, Indiana 74
Wisconsin 66, @Syracuse 58 (OT) - SU can afford this because of Atlantis, and Wisky gets a desperately needed quality win
Penn St 67, @Boston College 58
Notre Dame 84, @Illinois 79
@Iowa 78, Florida St 75 (OT)
Signature wins of the day:
Butler 78, @Cincinnati 76 - quality road win!
Tulsa 66, @Oklahoma St 56 - I'm starting to think OSU isn't good, although I can hear Tulsa whining at me already, because I'm dismissing both of their big wins already
Elsewhere:
@Texas A&M 75, FGCU 65
@Towson 75, George Mason 54 - just in case you were wondering after Mason beat Ole Miss and Okie State on a neutral site...they've got several marginal road losses now
@George Washington 72, Seton Hall 64
@LSU 119, North Florida 108
Arizona St 79, @Creighton 77
@Utah 83, BYU 75
The "road wins are never trivial" results:
Gonzaga 69, @Washington St 60
SMU 75, @TCU 70
Auburn 81, @Coastal Carolina 78
Hofstra 84, @LaSalle 80 - checking in on the CAA favorites...losses of N-SCarolina and Indiana St...beat FSU and 2 road wins over middling A-10 schools. Okay so far
VCU 62, @Middle Tennessee 56
Cupcake winners: Providence, Baylor, UConn, Clemson, Temple, Rhode Island, Marquette, Boise St, Oregon St
@Michigan St 71, Louisville 67 - UL will be fine and MSU is streaking towards the 1 line
@Duke 94, Indiana 74
Wisconsin 66, @Syracuse 58 (OT) - SU can afford this because of Atlantis, and Wisky gets a desperately needed quality win
Penn St 67, @Boston College 58
Notre Dame 84, @Illinois 79
@Iowa 78, Florida St 75 (OT)
Signature wins of the day:
Butler 78, @Cincinnati 76 - quality road win!
Tulsa 66, @Oklahoma St 56 - I'm starting to think OSU isn't good, although I can hear Tulsa whining at me already, because I'm dismissing both of their big wins already
Elsewhere:
@Texas A&M 75, FGCU 65
@Towson 75, George Mason 54 - just in case you were wondering after Mason beat Ole Miss and Okie State on a neutral site...they've got several marginal road losses now
@George Washington 72, Seton Hall 64
@LSU 119, North Florida 108
Arizona St 79, @Creighton 77
@Utah 83, BYU 75
The "road wins are never trivial" results:
Gonzaga 69, @Washington St 60
SMU 75, @TCU 70
Auburn 81, @Coastal Carolina 78
Hofstra 84, @LaSalle 80 - checking in on the CAA favorites...losses of N-SCarolina and Indiana St...beat FSU and 2 road wins over middling A-10 schools. Okay so far
VCU 62, @Middle Tennessee 56
Cupcake winners: Providence, Baylor, UConn, Clemson, Temple, Rhode Island, Marquette, Boise St, Oregon St
Wednesday, December 2, 2015
12/1 recap
B1G/ACC Challenge:
@North Carolina 89, Maryland 81 - no harm no foul for Maryland, and a nice win for UNC that could come in handy when the debate for the #1 overall seed kicks in down the road
Virginia 64, @Ohio St 58 - good hold by the better team on the road here. OSU is in all sorts of trouble this year
Purdue 72, @Pittsburgh 59 - another one where the road team was the better team, and proved it. Road wins are important if you want to be a protected seed
Miami 77, @Nebraska 72 (OT) - another road win by the better team! The committee is impressed, everyone
Michigan 66, @North Carolina St 59 - another one! Road games are supposed to be tough, but the better teams are winning
Northwestern 81, @Virginia Tech 79 - this just might be Northwestern's year
Signature win of the day:
@Texas 80, Texas-Arlington 73 (OT) - yes, it counts. As for UTA, man if they got this....but still, with other quality wins, the mission is now to win all games they should
Elsewhere:
@Iowa St 84, North Dakota St 64
Villanova 86, @St Joseph's 72 - every road win is a quality win
@Florida 76, Richmond 56
@William & Mary 55, Old Dominion 48 - two things: 1) I'm wrong on ODU this year, and 2) the CAA is having a nice year so far
Davidson 109, @Charlotte 74 - road wins are never trivial
Utah St 69, Missouri St 68 - don't make me repeat my road win mantra
@Memphis 94, Louisiana Tech 64
San Diego St 76, @Long Beach St 72
Cupcake winners: Georgia, Georgetown, Arkansas, Arkansas-Little Rock, Evansville, Missouri, UAB, Cal
@North Carolina 89, Maryland 81 - no harm no foul for Maryland, and a nice win for UNC that could come in handy when the debate for the #1 overall seed kicks in down the road
Virginia 64, @Ohio St 58 - good hold by the better team on the road here. OSU is in all sorts of trouble this year
Purdue 72, @Pittsburgh 59 - another one where the road team was the better team, and proved it. Road wins are important if you want to be a protected seed
Miami 77, @Nebraska 72 (OT) - another road win by the better team! The committee is impressed, everyone
Michigan 66, @North Carolina St 59 - another one! Road games are supposed to be tough, but the better teams are winning
Northwestern 81, @Virginia Tech 79 - this just might be Northwestern's year
Signature win of the day:
@Texas 80, Texas-Arlington 73 (OT) - yes, it counts. As for UTA, man if they got this....but still, with other quality wins, the mission is now to win all games they should
Elsewhere:
@Iowa St 84, North Dakota St 64
Villanova 86, @St Joseph's 72 - every road win is a quality win
@Florida 76, Richmond 56
@William & Mary 55, Old Dominion 48 - two things: 1) I'm wrong on ODU this year, and 2) the CAA is having a nice year so far
Davidson 109, @Charlotte 74 - road wins are never trivial
Utah St 69, Missouri St 68 - don't make me repeat my road win mantra
@Memphis 94, Louisiana Tech 64
San Diego St 76, @Long Beach St 72
Cupcake winners: Georgia, Georgetown, Arkansas, Arkansas-Little Rock, Evansville, Missouri, UAB, Cal
Tuesday, December 1, 2015
12/1 S-CURVE
Time for a modest update. This is a weird hybrid curve of results and predictions, as there's not enough raw data to analyze a team on the results alone. So it's a weird hybrid where teams who earned a higher seed to date aren't up there and tanking teams aren't wholly removed.
The 1 line: Maryland (6-0), Kentucky (7-0), North Carolina (5-1), Villanova (6-0)
The 2 line: Iowa St (5-0), Michigan St (7-0), Kansas (3-1), Duke (6-1)
The 3 line: Arizona (6-1), Syracuse (6-0), Oklahoma (4-0), Texas A&M (6-1)
The 4 line: Gonzaga (4-1), Virginia (5-1), Xavier (7-0), Purdue (6-0)
The 5 line: Louisville (5-0), Oregon (6-0), Providence (6-1), George Washington (6-1)
The 6 line: Butler (4-1), West Virginia (6-0), Miami (5-1), Cincinnati (7-0)
The 7 line: Davidson (3-0), Oklahoma St (5-1), Utah (5-1), Dayton (5-1)
The 8 line: Vanderbilt (5-1), Northern Iowa (4-1), Indiana (5-2), USC (5-2)
The 9 line: UConn (4-2), Valparaiso (4-2), Colorado St (5-1), Northwestern (5-1)
The 10 line: Georgetown (2-3), Baylor (4-1), Texas-Arlington (5-1), Notre Dame (4-2)
The 11 line: Monmouth (4-2), California (4-2), Florida (5-1), San Diego St (3-3)
The 12 line: Rhode Island (4-2), South Carolina (7-0), Wichita St (1-4), Seton Hall (5-1), Tulsa (4-2), Michigan (3-2)
The 13 line: Northeastern (4-1), South Dakota St (5-1), Chattanooga (4-2), North Florida (4-2)
The 14 line: Louisiana Tech (4-0), Akron (3-2), Long Beach St (2-3), Weber St (3-2)
The 15 line: Murray St (4-2), Princeton (4-0), Boston (3-3), New Mexico St (4-2)
The 16 line: Albany (3-3), Alabama A&M (3-1), Stephen F Austin (2-3), High Point (3-2), Long Island (3-2), Howard (3-2)
Next 4 in:
Florida
San Diego St
Rhode Island
South Carolina
Last 4 in:
Wichita St
Seton Hall
Tulsa
Michigan
Last 4 out:
UCLA (4-3)
Alabama (4-2)
Iowa (4-2)
Arkanasas-Little Rock (3-0)
Next 4 out:
Ohio St (2-3)
Oregon St (3-1)
Pittsburgh (3-0)
Marquette (4-2)
The 1 line: Maryland (6-0), Kentucky (7-0), North Carolina (5-1), Villanova (6-0)
The 2 line: Iowa St (5-0), Michigan St (7-0), Kansas (3-1), Duke (6-1)
The 3 line: Arizona (6-1), Syracuse (6-0), Oklahoma (4-0), Texas A&M (6-1)
The 4 line: Gonzaga (4-1), Virginia (5-1), Xavier (7-0), Purdue (6-0)
The 5 line: Louisville (5-0), Oregon (6-0), Providence (6-1), George Washington (6-1)
The 6 line: Butler (4-1), West Virginia (6-0), Miami (5-1), Cincinnati (7-0)
The 7 line: Davidson (3-0), Oklahoma St (5-1), Utah (5-1), Dayton (5-1)
The 8 line: Vanderbilt (5-1), Northern Iowa (4-1), Indiana (5-2), USC (5-2)
The 9 line: UConn (4-2), Valparaiso (4-2), Colorado St (5-1), Northwestern (5-1)
The 10 line: Georgetown (2-3), Baylor (4-1), Texas-Arlington (5-1), Notre Dame (4-2)
The 11 line: Monmouth (4-2), California (4-2), Florida (5-1), San Diego St (3-3)
The 12 line: Rhode Island (4-2), South Carolina (7-0), Wichita St (1-4), Seton Hall (5-1), Tulsa (4-2), Michigan (3-2)
The 13 line: Northeastern (4-1), South Dakota St (5-1), Chattanooga (4-2), North Florida (4-2)
The 14 line: Louisiana Tech (4-0), Akron (3-2), Long Beach St (2-3), Weber St (3-2)
The 15 line: Murray St (4-2), Princeton (4-0), Boston (3-3), New Mexico St (4-2)
The 16 line: Albany (3-3), Alabama A&M (3-1), Stephen F Austin (2-3), High Point (3-2), Long Island (3-2), Howard (3-2)
Next 4 in:
Florida
San Diego St
Rhode Island
South Carolina
Last 4 in:
Wichita St
Seton Hall
Tulsa
Michigan
Last 4 out:
UCLA (4-3)
Alabama (4-2)
Iowa (4-2)
Arkanasas-Little Rock (3-0)
Next 4 out:
Ohio St (2-3)
Oregon St (3-1)
Pittsburgh (3-0)
Marquette (4-2)
11/30 recap
Bah.
Catastrophic loss of the day:
@Charleston 70, LSU 58 - um, LSU, you need to get in the tournament still, you know
@Kentucky 75, Illinois St 63
@Oregon 78, Fresno St 73
B1G/ACC Challenge:
Wake Forest 69, @Rutgers 68 - well, someone had to win
@Minnesota 89, Clemson 83
Cupcake winners: Indiana, South Carolina, Northern Iowa
Catastrophic loss of the day:
@Charleston 70, LSU 58 - um, LSU, you need to get in the tournament still, you know
@Kentucky 75, Illinois St 63
@Oregon 78, Fresno St 73
B1G/ACC Challenge:
Wake Forest 69, @Rutgers 68 - well, someone had to win
@Minnesota 89, Clemson 83
Cupcake winners: Indiana, South Carolina, Northern Iowa
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