Monday, November 23, 2015

Early-season tournament preview, part II: Thanksgiving week

This will cover everything starting Monday and Tuesday.

Gulf Coast Showcase
Nov 23-25
8 teams in your standard format
Matchups:
Milwaukee vs. Murray St
Duquesne vs. Pepperdine
Drake vs. Western Kentucky
Weber St vs. Central Michigan
The stakes:  Fairly low, although a couple good mid-majors are lurking in here.  Pepperdine is everyone's favorite darkhorse, and with this field, they'd need to win this to make those people feel good.  Weber and Murray are competent teams, but there's no golden goose in here that will qualify as a signature win for any of these teams.  So the stakes are simple - the winner gets 3 neutral-site wins which the committee will like but not fawn over.

Maui Invitational
Nov 23-25
8 teams in your standard format
Matchups:
St John's vs. Vanderbilt
Wake Forest vs. Indiana
Kansas vs. Chaminade
UNLV vs. UCLA
The stakes:  Well, there's a clear top 4 and bottom 4 in this field.  So first things first: Vandy/Indiana and Kansas/UCLA need to handle their business.  After that...it's both high stakes and no stakes.  All are in power conferences; all will have many signature win chances, so this isn't a make or break trip for any of the 4.  This is more about bad loss avoidance than anything else.  Low stress tournament, surprisingly.

Legends Classic
Nov 23-24
4 teams in your standard format
Matchups:
LSU vs. Marquette
NC State vs. Arizona St
The stakes:  Frankly, LSU is a tier above everyone else and needs to handle their business.  LSU's non-con SoS is frankly terrible, so these are two very very very important games for them.  Must handle.  Marquette and NC State definitely could use a boost, and this represents a solid chance to get a jump on the process.  ASU is a lost cause.  Also, Belmont/IUPUI is possible in the JV bracket.

Men Who Speak Up Main Event
Nov 23, 25
4 teams in your standard format
The matchups:
Clemson vs. UMass
Creighton vs. Rutgers
The stakes:  The names are shiny.  The caliber isn't.  I don't think 2 wins helps anyone here.

CBE Hall of Fame Classic
Nov 23-24
4 teams in your standard format
The matchups:
Kansas St vs. Missouri
North Carolina vs. Northwestern
The stakes:  Actually a poor setup for UNC.  They're getting nothing of value here.  Northwestern, assuming they lose, which would be fine, then needs to win that second game, no matter what.  Also note we've got Wofford at Columbia in the JV bracket, which is infinitely more interesting than the main bracket.

Cancun Challenge
Nov 24-25
4 teams in your standard format
The matchups:
TCU vs. Rhode Island
Maryland vs. Illinois St
The stakes:  Assuming URI and Maryland wins the games they're supposed to, it'll be a chance at a solid win for Maryland and a signature win for URI.  Standard stuff.  I don't see the other two teams as at-large threats for the time being, so we'll see if they change my mind.

11/22 recap

Charleston Classic:
Virginia 83, George Mason 66 - and UVa gets nothing of value out of this tourney
Seton Hall 75, Ole Miss 63
Oklahoma St 82, Long Beach St 77

2K Classic:
Duke 86, Georgetown 84 - no resume movement for either team
Wisconsin 74, VCU 73 - a resume-saver for now

Puerto Rico:
Miami 85, Butler 75 - a quality neutral site win
Utah 74, Temple 68
Texas Tech 81, Minnesota 68

HoF Tipoff:
Purdue 85, Florida 70
St Joseph's 66, Old Dominion 64 - losing to Purdue is fine.  This loss, however, is the type of loss that prevents at-large bids
Buffalo 77, Vermont 71

elsewhere:
@Villanova 75, Akron 56
@Oregon 73, Valpariaso 67 - given that Valpo won at URI already, this was a house money shot
East Tennessee St 69, @Georgia Tech 68 - *giggle*
@SMU 71, Yale 69
Tulsa 67, @Indiana St 59 - Tulsa starting to pile up useful wins
@South Carolina 94, Hofstra 84 - darn, Hofstra could've at least begun to think about an at-large bid if they got this one
@St Mary's 78, Stanford 61

Cupcake winners:  Cincy, Colorado, SFA, Colorado St, UAB, George Washington, UTEP

Sunday, November 22, 2015

11/21 recap

Signature win of the day:
@Northern Iowa 71, North Carolina - self-explanatory category here

Catastrophic losses of the day:
Arkansas-Little Rock 49, @San Diego St 43 - these games are inexcusable, period
Chattanooga 81, @Illinois 77 - probably the end of their at-large hopes, realistically

HoF Tipoff Tournament:
Purdue 61, Old Dominion 39 - a better win than people will recognize
Florida 74, St Joseph's 63

Notables:
@Louisville 89, North Florida 61
@Western Kentucky 67, Stony Brook 66
@Evansville 93, Belmont 88
@Dayton 69, William & Mary 66
South Dakota St 76, @TCU 67 - um, SDSU has now beat Weber St, Illinois St, and TCU.  Indivually, each win is okay, collectively, SDSU is building something big here
@USC 90, New Mexico 82

Cupcake winners:  Wichita St, Gonzaga, Notre Dame, UConn, Davidson (by one over Charleston, eep), Texas A&M, Oregon St (on the road at UCSB!), Providence, Syracuse, Rhode Island, Texas, New Mexico St,

Friday, November 20, 2015

11/20 recap

Puerto Rico:
Miami 90, Utah 66 - not a good look for the Pac-12.  Mid-table ACC > Mid-table Pac-12
Butler 74, Temple 69

Charleston:
George Mason 71, Oklahoma St 68 (OT) - simply a bad loss, and a lost chance at a house money game against UVa.  Meanwhile, um, George Mason is competent?  Okay then!
Virginia 87, Long Beach St 52 - more notable is LBSU gets a shot at Oklahoma St and another good resume builder

Paradise Jam:
Tulsa 90, Ohio 88 - near disaster
Hofstra 82, Florida St 77 - now, Hofstra is probably the CAA favorite, so it's isn't as bad as it looks....but the middle of the ACC is going to be a dogfight, and FSU will have one black mark entering it.  The real issue is being trapped on the wrong side of the bracket and losing quality win chances
South Carolina 76, DePaul 61
Indiana St 70, Norfolk St 61

2K Classic:
Georgetown 71, Wisconsin 61 - GU saves its season, for now
Duke 79, VCU 71 - VCU hung most of the day, so file that away under useful information for March

elsewhere...
Signature win of the day:
Xavier 86, @Michigan 70 - road wins are gold, remember

Catastrophic loss of the day:
UT-Arlington 73, @Ohio St 68 - no words to describe

Notables:
@Georgia 63, Murray St 52 - MSU is decent so this isn't a trivial result
@Northwestern 83, Columbia 80 (OT) - ditto Columbia, but this was a little too close

Cupcake winners:  Kentucky, Maryland (although they took their sweet time before taking the lead against Rider), Oklahoma, Villanova, Michigan St, California, Baylor, Oregon, Minnesota, Iona, Pitt, BYU

11/19 recap

Charleston:
Virginia and Oklahoma St handled their business.  Ole Miss lost a bad, bad game to George Mason, and Long Beach St might be for real!  Long Beach St 80, Seton Hall 77.  LBSU/UVa and OSU/GMU here

Puerto Rico:
No surprises.  Utah, Butler win.  Miami handles Mississippi St.  Temple beats Minnesota.  Best 4 teams in the field win, no shenanigans.

Signature win of the day:
Iowa 89, @Marquette 61 - hammering a bubble team on the road is a more useful result than you think

Notables:
@Arizona 88, Boise St 76 - no sin for Boise to lose here, but wiggle room is disappearing early
@Vanderbilt 79, Stony Brook 72 (OT) - SBU is good, file that away for later use
George Washington 73, @South Florida 67 - road wins are road wins
South Dakota St 83, @Illinois St 67
Oregon St 77, @Rice 69 - road wins matter
@UCLA 81, Pepperdine 67
SMU 85, @Stanford 70

Cupcake winners;  Indiana, LSU, Clemson, Texas A&M, UAB (on the road at Troy), Memphis, Colorado St, Washington

Thursday, November 19, 2015

11/18 recap

Signature win of the day:
@Providence 60, Illinois 59 - hey, a win is a win.  And pickings are slim for this day.

Catastrophic loss of the day:

Notables
@North Carolina 78, Wofford 58
Richmond 91, @Wake Forest 82 - Wake is down, but still not a bad win for the Richmond ledger
Akron 88, @Arkansas 80 - is the MAC sneaky-good this year?

Cupcake winners;  Gonzaga, Purdue, Cincinnati (on the road at BGU), NC State, Old Dominion, Belmont, Northwestern, Valpo, SDSU

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Early-season tournament preview, part I: pre-Thanksgiving

Yep.  Here at this fine blog, we're going to cover each and every neutral-site tournament that will take place in the non-conference schedule in the next 2 months.  This post will deal with the upcoming tournament this week, before the Thanksgiving rush.

Puerto Rico Tip-Off
Nov 19, 20, 22
8 teams, your standard 8-team bracket format
Matchups:
Temple vs. Minnesota
Butler vs. Missouri St
Miami vs. Mississippi St
Utah vs. Texas Tech
The stakes:  We have teams of varying expectations, with most of them having small expectations.  I'm not expecting Mississippi St or Texas Tech to do much here, for example.  Utah and Butler are your two best teams, and if either lose before the finals, they'll absorb a bad loss.  Miami is the other team I'm looking at that needs a 2-1 week to avoid a partially damaging loss.  For everyone else, this tournament is an opportunity to announce they're actually a contender this year.

Charleston Classic
Nov 19, 20, 22
8 teams, your standard 8-team bracket format
Matchups:
Ole Miss vs. George Mason
Oklahoma St vs. Towson
Long Beach St vs. Seton Hall
Virginia vs. Bradley
The stakes:  Virginia just has to win this tournament.  No single team in here provides a signature win chance, so getting 3 neutral site wins of varying quality will be mandatory.  Oklahoma St is probably the 2nd best team in this field and should probably plan on handling Ole Miss to avoid any type of profile damage.  Also keep an eye on Long Beach St, who already handled BYU.  The losers bracket in this tournament will be poor; but if they beat Seton Hall, they get a free money chance at Virginia and probably Ole Miss too.

2K Classic
Nov 20, 22
4 teams, with another 4 weak teams in a consolation bracket
Matchups:
Wisconsin vs. Georgetown
Duke vs. VCU
The stakes:  Boy, this worked out well.   Wisky and GU both absorbed terribad losses, and now have a shot at redemption.  The winner of that game gets a house money chance at Duke.  The loser gets the sting of another loss, although VCU won't be that bad of a second opponent.  Of course, I expect Duke to handle all teams in this field easily.
As part of this tourney, there's a bunch of campus site games between the top 4 and the bottom 4 (Radford, Prairie View, Bryant, Siena).  Obviously we know how Radford/Georgetown went.  These bottom 4 play in their own mini-tournament, hosted by Bryant.

Paradise Jam
Nov 20-23
8 teams, your standard 8-team bracket with a bye day for the quarterfinal winners
Matchups:
Ohio vs. Tulsa
Indiana St vs. Norfolk St
Hofstra vs. Florida St
DePaul vs. South Carolina
The stakes;  What an odd grouping.  You have a AAC contender in the top half, and a CAA favorite lumped in with 3 middling power conference teams on the bottom half.  Hofstra is probably a bit too far away from thinking about an at-large bid, but if they can find 3 wins here, I'll give them a fighting chance.  I don't expect much out of DePaul and USC, so FSU really needs to handle their business.  On the top half, Tulsa is clearly the best team and reallllly needs to handle their end of the draw.

Hall of Fame Tip-Off
Nov 21, 22
4 teams, with another 4 weak teams in a consolation bracket
Matchups:
Old Dominion vs. Purdue
St Joseph's vs. Florida
The stakes:  Well, here's a big chance for ODU.  Purdue and Florida will get chances in conference play to pad an at-large resume.  ODU won't.  So much more important for them.  Beat Purdue and get a quality win and a house money chance at Florida.  Lose and get an irrelevant game with St Joe's.  Not to overplay it, but a huge swing game for ODU.
In the bottom 4 in the draw, Vermont and Buffalo are reasonably decent teams (and get Niagara and NC A&T).  If they can both win, Vermont/Buffalo might be a good game.