Signature wins of the day:
Kentucky 74, Duke 63 - in past years, this would've been very useful to UK, because the SEC didn't provide any signature win chances. The SEC is better this year, so this wasn't as critical for UK. Both teams will obviously be fine
Michigan St 79, Kansas 73 - will be useful for seeding purposes in March
@Tulsa 77, Wichita St 67 - for an AAC that's trending downwards, a critical signature win to prop up the at-large profile of Tulsa
Valparaiso 58, @Rhode Island 55 - I'm telling you, the Valpo bandwagon is humming along
Catastrophic loss of the day:
@Northern Iowa 70, Stephen F Austin 60 - and SFA has already given up about as much ground as it can afford to in the at-large race
Notable results:
@Maryland 75, Georgetown 71 - no sin for GU to lose in this spot, but their early loss puts them behind the 8-ball now
Oklahoma 84, @Memphis 78 - road wins are never trivial
@Villanova 87, Nebraska 63
UMass 69, @Harvard 63 - just in case anyone is still on the Crimson to do big things
@Oregon St 93, Iona 73
Cupcake winners: Notre Dame, UConn, Dayton (big over Alabama), Colorado (on the road at Auburn!), Xavier (over Mizzou), Ohio St, Louisville, Syracuse, Pitt, Wisconsin, Florida St
Wednesday, November 18, 2015
Tuesday, November 17, 2015
11/16 recap
Signature wins of the day:
@George Washington 73, Virginia 68 - I pegged GW for the mid-table in the A-10. Whoops. Too early to say a definitive impact for either team, but a signature win for GWU and a loss that won't hurt too badly for UVa if they make up for it elsewhere
@Utah 81, San Diego St 76 - signature win for Utah, not a harmful loss for SDSU
Catastrophic loss of the day:
Southern 76, @Mississippi St 72 - oh no
@Long Beach St 66, BYU 65 - BYU is already at a conference-related disadvantage...they can't afford anything more like this, even though it was on the road
Notables:
@Oregon 74, Baylor 67 - wait a second, Oregon is ranked? Are we sure about this? I guess we are now, but I already wrote this team off to the middle of the pack in the Pac-12, and here they are with a good win. Huh
@Indiana St 70, Wyoming 55
@Old Dominion 77, Buffalo 58 - notable in just that a probable bubble team in ODU handled their business against a not-bad mid-major
NJIT 60, @South Florida 57 - this is why you can't have nice things, AAC
@Georgia Tech 69, Tennessee 67
@Miami 93, Louisiana-Lafayette 77
@South Dakota St 85, Weber St 68 - Summit > Big Sky
@Arizona St 83, Belmont 74 - as unfair as it is, very damaging to Belmont's at-large profile
Cupcake winners: Iowa St, Arizona, Indiana, Cal, Vandy, LSU, Michigan, WVU, Florida, Oklahoma St, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Marquette, UAB, Boise St,
@George Washington 73, Virginia 68 - I pegged GW for the mid-table in the A-10. Whoops. Too early to say a definitive impact for either team, but a signature win for GWU and a loss that won't hurt too badly for UVa if they make up for it elsewhere
@Utah 81, San Diego St 76 - signature win for Utah, not a harmful loss for SDSU
Catastrophic loss of the day:
Southern 76, @Mississippi St 72 - oh no
@Long Beach St 66, BYU 65 - BYU is already at a conference-related disadvantage...they can't afford anything more like this, even though it was on the road
Notables:
@Oregon 74, Baylor 67 - wait a second, Oregon is ranked? Are we sure about this? I guess we are now, but I already wrote this team off to the middle of the pack in the Pac-12, and here they are with a good win. Huh
@Indiana St 70, Wyoming 55
@Old Dominion 77, Buffalo 58 - notable in just that a probable bubble team in ODU handled their business against a not-bad mid-major
NJIT 60, @South Florida 57 - this is why you can't have nice things, AAC
@Georgia Tech 69, Tennessee 67
@Miami 93, Louisiana-Lafayette 77
@South Dakota St 85, Weber St 68 - Summit > Big Sky
@Arizona St 83, Belmont 74 - as unfair as it is, very damaging to Belmont's at-large profile
Cupcake winners: Iowa St, Arizona, Indiana, Cal, Vandy, LSU, Michigan, WVU, Florida, Oklahoma St, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Marquette, UAB, Boise St,
Monday, November 16, 2015
Tip-Off Marathon sanity check preview post
Let's look at these games and go on a scale from 1 to 5 Bill Waltons on how enthused you need to be to watch each game.
All times eastern, because the east coast rules the world:
7:30 PM Virginia at George Washington - GWU isn't the easiest out, but a road win Virginia should get. Mild upset alert. 2 Waltons.
All times eastern, because the east coast rules the world:
7:30 PM Virginia at George Washington - GWU isn't the easiest out, but a road win Virginia should get. Mild upset alert. 2 Waltons.
9:30 PM San Diego St at Utah - Now here we go. MWC #1 at Pac-12 #3. We saw the Mountain West fade last year; these games will fix a lot of seed problems that come with playing in the MWC. As for Utah, a simple chance at a quality win. 4 Waltons.
11:30 PM Baylor at Oregon - Even though it's a road game, Baylor should roll. 1 Waltons.
1:45 AM BYU at Long Beach St - LBSU schedules up like crazy every year, but won't matter in the at-large picture. A big game for BYU, though. A bubble team needs to win games like this, especially on the road, which the committee likes to see. A loss isn't devastating, but the margin of error is smaller in the WCC. 2 Waltons.
4:00 AM Nevada at Hawaii - Naptime. 0 Waltons.
6:00 AM Green Bay at East Tennessee St - Neither are favorites in their league, so I'm going with 0 Waltons too. This is reminiscent of those old BracketBuster games, of which this would be, say, a decent matchup.
8:00 AM Stephen F Austin at Northern Iowa - This looked a lot better before SFA got BTFO'd by Baylor, and UNI lost a bad one to Colorado St. 1 Waltons. Because the loser of this game will be in desperation mode for their at-large chances.
10:00 AM Valparaiso at Rhode Island - 5 Waltons! EVERYONE, and I mean EVERYONE, is on the Valpo bandwagon. And URI is your A-10 favorite. This will be a quality win for whoever wins, and if it's Valpo, they can begin to think at-large bid. This is the one you can't afford to miss. Sleep through the earlier ones if you have to.
1:00 PM Alabama at Dayton - Dayton should cruise. 1 Walton.
3:00 PM Colorado at Auburn - Nah, take a mid-day nap. You'll need it by this point. 1 Walton.
5:00 PM Oklahoma at Memphis - OU is a bonafide team, and Memphis is regressing. I can't talk myself into believing anything Memphis is selling this year. 2 Waltons, only because it's a road game for OU and you never know.
7:30 PM Kentucky vs. Duke (Chicago)
10:00 PM Kansas vs. Michigan St (Chicago) - all the Waltons.
9:00 PM Georgetown at Maryland - This looked a lot better before G'town gakked one to Radford. 3 Waltons.
11/15 recap
It's kind of actually a very boring day to recap.
Wake Forest 90, @Bucknell 82
@Valparaiso 83, Iona 58 - well, there's a statement
@Illinois 80, North Dakota St 74
New Mexico 83, @New Mexico St 74
@UCLA 88, Cal Poly 83
And I'm filing everything else under cupcake win: North Carolina, Wisconsin, Purdue, Ohio St, Seton Hall, Cincinnati, Clemson, Florida St, Minnesota, Evansville, Iowa, Richmond, NC State, Missouri, Stanford
Wake Forest 90, @Bucknell 82
@Valparaiso 83, Iona 58 - well, there's a statement
@Illinois 80, North Dakota St 74
New Mexico 83, @New Mexico St 74
@UCLA 88, Cal Poly 83
And I'm filing everything else under cupcake win: North Carolina, Wisconsin, Purdue, Ohio St, Seton Hall, Cincinnati, Clemson, Florida St, Minnesota, Evansville, Iowa, Richmond, NC State, Missouri, Stanford
Sunday, November 15, 2015
11/14 recap
Signature win of the day:
Colorado St 84, @Northern Iowa 78 - I thought CSU wasn't supposed to be much of anything this year...file this away for later under "useful wins"....UNI in early trouble, tough to get an at-large with losses like these on the docket
Catastrophic loss of the day:
Radford 82, @Georgetown 80 (2OT) - oh no
Scores of note:
@Providence 76, Harvard 64 - it does appear Harvard is a bit down this year
Alabama St 85, @Virginia Tech 82 - VT isn't supposed to be good, but still....that's a SWAC team, bro
SMU 85, Sam Houston St 50 - so I think I'll cover SMU just like any other team...because wins off of them count as quality wins, so we need to keep tabs
Easy winners include: Duke, Kentucky, Butler, Tulsa, Davidson, Oregon St, Memphis, Akron
Colorado St 84, @Northern Iowa 78 - I thought CSU wasn't supposed to be much of anything this year...file this away for later under "useful wins"....UNI in early trouble, tough to get an at-large with losses like these on the docket
Catastrophic loss of the day:
Radford 82, @Georgetown 80 (2OT) - oh no
Scores of note:
@Providence 76, Harvard 64 - it does appear Harvard is a bit down this year
Alabama St 85, @Virginia Tech 82 - VT isn't supposed to be good, but still....that's a SWAC team, bro
SMU 85, Sam Houston St 50 - so I think I'll cover SMU just like any other team...because wins off of them count as quality wins, so we need to keep tabs
Easy winners include: Duke, Kentucky, Butler, Tulsa, Davidson, Oregon St, Memphis, Akron
Saturday, November 14, 2015
11/13 recap
Signature wins of the day:
@Baylor 97, Stephen F Austin 55 - the margin is notable here, a 40 pt win over a probable tourney team doesn't hurt
North Florida 93, @Illinois 81 - this can be worth a seed line in March, which for UNF is big. Getting off the 16 line is huge
Belmont 83, @Marquette 80 - also qualifies as a catastrophic loss for Marquette, but a nice win for a team that likes to live on the periphery of the bubble
Catastrophic losses of the day:
Western Illinois 69, @Wisconsin 67 - I mean, WIU isn't even really an upper-table team in the Summit. There's no good way to spin this, this is worth a seeding line (or 3) in March
Chattanooga 92, @Georgia 90 (OT) - at least Chattanooga is a SoCon contender so this isn't the death blow that WIU is, but still....not good
William & Mary 85, @NC State 68 - in what's supposed to be a loaded ACC, NC State is already a step behind the pack
@Montana 74, Boise St 72 - probably harsh to ding Boise for a true road loss at a solid team, but this really puts them behind the pack in the bubble race
@Auburn 75, UAB 74 - hard to criticize a road loss, but as far as power conference wins goes, this was as gettable as they come for UAB
Monmouth 84, @UCLA 81 (OT) - at least Monmouth is an upper-level MAAC team. Still not a good look though, but it's recoverable
Catastrophic cancellations of the day:
Pittsburgh/Gonzaga - Pitt will have plenty of signature win chances later, so it's fine. For a Gonzaga team that relies on the non-con for a SoS boost, it's borderline disastrous that they don't have this on their SoS ledger
Results of note:
North Carolina 91, Temple 64 - neutral site win
@Iowa St 68, Colorado 62 - service held
Sacramento St 66, @Arizona St 63 - ASU won't be relevant this year, but still
James Madison 87, @Richmond 75 - CAA favorite (or 2nd favorite) beats mid-table A-10 team on the road. Could be useful info for later
@New Mexico 86, Texas Southern 57 - TSU won't play their way off the 16 line this year
Utah St 73, @Weber St 70
@Stanford 93, Green Bay 89 (OT) - close call
@Missouri 83, Wofford 74 - many mid-majors snagged a nice win. Wofford wasn't one of them
@Texas Tech 77, High Point 73 - neither did HPU
@San Diego St 71, Illinois St 60
Washington 77, Texas 71
Screw you, I'm not listing out full scores, so here's a list of top teams who handled cupcake-like opponents:
Kentucky, Maryland, Kansas, Duke, Virginia, Wichita St, Villanova, Arizona, Michigan St, Cal, Indiana, Utah, Vandy, Notre Dame, UConn, Purdue, Michigan, LSU, Central Michigan, Ole Miss, Old Dominion, West Virginia, VCU, Cincinnati, Dayton, Miami, Syracuse, Louisville, Xavier, Oklahoma St, Northwestern, Rhode Island, Valparaiso, BYU, Florida, Iowa, Texas A&M
@Baylor 97, Stephen F Austin 55 - the margin is notable here, a 40 pt win over a probable tourney team doesn't hurt
North Florida 93, @Illinois 81 - this can be worth a seed line in March, which for UNF is big. Getting off the 16 line is huge
Belmont 83, @Marquette 80 - also qualifies as a catastrophic loss for Marquette, but a nice win for a team that likes to live on the periphery of the bubble
Catastrophic losses of the day:
Western Illinois 69, @Wisconsin 67 - I mean, WIU isn't even really an upper-table team in the Summit. There's no good way to spin this, this is worth a seeding line (or 3) in March
Chattanooga 92, @Georgia 90 (OT) - at least Chattanooga is a SoCon contender so this isn't the death blow that WIU is, but still....not good
William & Mary 85, @NC State 68 - in what's supposed to be a loaded ACC, NC State is already a step behind the pack
@Montana 74, Boise St 72 - probably harsh to ding Boise for a true road loss at a solid team, but this really puts them behind the pack in the bubble race
@Auburn 75, UAB 74 - hard to criticize a road loss, but as far as power conference wins goes, this was as gettable as they come for UAB
Monmouth 84, @UCLA 81 (OT) - at least Monmouth is an upper-level MAAC team. Still not a good look though, but it's recoverable
Catastrophic cancellations of the day:
Pittsburgh/Gonzaga - Pitt will have plenty of signature win chances later, so it's fine. For a Gonzaga team that relies on the non-con for a SoS boost, it's borderline disastrous that they don't have this on their SoS ledger
Results of note:
North Carolina 91, Temple 64 - neutral site win
@Iowa St 68, Colorado 62 - service held
Sacramento St 66, @Arizona St 63 - ASU won't be relevant this year, but still
James Madison 87, @Richmond 75 - CAA favorite (or 2nd favorite) beats mid-table A-10 team on the road. Could be useful info for later
@New Mexico 86, Texas Southern 57 - TSU won't play their way off the 16 line this year
Utah St 73, @Weber St 70
@Stanford 93, Green Bay 89 (OT) - close call
@Missouri 83, Wofford 74 - many mid-majors snagged a nice win. Wofford wasn't one of them
@Texas Tech 77, High Point 73 - neither did HPU
@San Diego St 71, Illinois St 60
Washington 77, Texas 71
Screw you, I'm not listing out full scores, so here's a list of top teams who handled cupcake-like opponents:
Kentucky, Maryland, Kansas, Duke, Virginia, Wichita St, Villanova, Arizona, Michigan St, Cal, Indiana, Utah, Vandy, Notre Dame, UConn, Purdue, Michigan, LSU, Central Michigan, Ole Miss, Old Dominion, West Virginia, VCU, Cincinnati, Dayton, Miami, Syracuse, Louisville, Xavier, Oklahoma St, Northwestern, Rhode Island, Valparaiso, BYU, Florida, Iowa, Texas A&M
Friday, November 13, 2015
11/13 S-CURVE
There's some tweaking from the October S-Curve, but it's mostly the same as before.
The 1 line: North Carolina, Maryland, Kentucky, Kansas
The 2 line: Arizona, Villanova, Wichita St, Duke
The 3 line: Indiana, Gonzaga, Oklahoma, California
The 4 line: Iowa St, Michigan St, Virginia, Georgetown
The 5 line: Baylor, Louisville, San Diego St, Purdue,
The 6 line: LSU, Rhode Island, Xavier, Notre Dame
The 7 line: Wisconsin, Utah, Vanderbilt, UConn
The 8 line: Cincinnati, Michigan, Dayton, Butler
The 9 line: Boise St, Texas A&M, Oregon, Providence
The 10 line: Valparaiso, Texas, North Carolina St, Northern Iowa
The 11 line: Ohio St, Davidson, Central Michigan, Tulsa
The 12 line: Oregon St, Florida, Florida St, UCLA, Marquette, Old Dominion
The 13 line: Iona, Belmont, Columbia, Montana
The 14 line: Hofstra, UC Irvine, North Florida, Stephen F Austin
The 15 line: Louisiana-Lafayette, Wofford, South Dakota St, Stony Brook
The 16 line: New Mexico St, Robert Morris, High Point, Lehigh, North Carolina Central, Texas Southern
Bubble in:
Texas A&M
Oregon
Providence
Valparaiso *in as automatic bid
Texas
North Carolina St
Northern Iowa
Next 4 in:
Ohio St
Davidson
Central Michigan *in as automatic bid
Tulsa
Oregon St
Last 4 in:
Florida
Florida St
UCLA
Marquette
Last 4 out:
Northwestern
Evansville
Old Dominion *in as automatic bid
Miami
West Virginia
Next 4 out:
Pittsburgh
UAB
Mississippi St
BYU
Bubble inception (we have to go deeper):
Iowa
Illinois St
Pepperdine
Utah St
Syracuse
Oklahoma St
Syracuse
Akron
edit after the fact: oops. First version of this post had Akron up in the bracket, second version has them out, and the Matrix picked up the first version. No biggie.
The 1 line: North Carolina, Maryland, Kentucky, Kansas
The 2 line: Arizona, Villanova, Wichita St, Duke
The 3 line: Indiana, Gonzaga, Oklahoma, California
The 4 line: Iowa St, Michigan St, Virginia, Georgetown
The 5 line: Baylor, Louisville, San Diego St, Purdue,
The 6 line: LSU, Rhode Island, Xavier, Notre Dame
The 7 line: Wisconsin, Utah, Vanderbilt, UConn
The 8 line: Cincinnati, Michigan, Dayton, Butler
The 9 line: Boise St, Texas A&M, Oregon, Providence
The 10 line: Valparaiso, Texas, North Carolina St, Northern Iowa
The 11 line: Ohio St, Davidson, Central Michigan, Tulsa
The 12 line: Oregon St, Florida, Florida St, UCLA, Marquette, Old Dominion
The 13 line: Iona, Belmont, Columbia, Montana
The 14 line: Hofstra, UC Irvine, North Florida, Stephen F Austin
The 15 line: Louisiana-Lafayette, Wofford, South Dakota St, Stony Brook
The 16 line: New Mexico St, Robert Morris, High Point, Lehigh, North Carolina Central, Texas Southern
Bubble in:
Texas A&M
Oregon
Providence
Valparaiso *in as automatic bid
Texas
North Carolina St
Northern Iowa
Next 4 in:
Ohio St
Davidson
Central Michigan *in as automatic bid
Tulsa
Oregon St
Last 4 in:
Florida
Florida St
UCLA
Marquette
Last 4 out:
Northwestern
Evansville
Old Dominion *in as automatic bid
Miami
West Virginia
Next 4 out:
Pittsburgh
UAB
Mississippi St
BYU
Bubble inception (we have to go deeper):
Iowa
Illinois St
Pepperdine
Utah St
Syracuse
Oklahoma St
Syracuse
Akron
edit after the fact: oops. First version of this post had Akron up in the bracket, second version has them out, and the Matrix picked up the first version. No biggie.
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