It's kind of actually a very boring day to recap.
Wake Forest 90, @Bucknell 82
@Valparaiso 83, Iona 58 - well, there's a statement
@Illinois 80, North Dakota St 74
New Mexico 83, @New Mexico St 74
@UCLA 88, Cal Poly 83
And I'm filing everything else under cupcake win: North Carolina, Wisconsin, Purdue, Ohio St, Seton Hall, Cincinnati, Clemson, Florida St, Minnesota, Evansville, Iowa, Richmond, NC State, Missouri, Stanford
Monday, November 16, 2015
Sunday, November 15, 2015
11/14 recap
Signature win of the day:
Colorado St 84, @Northern Iowa 78 - I thought CSU wasn't supposed to be much of anything this year...file this away for later under "useful wins"....UNI in early trouble, tough to get an at-large with losses like these on the docket
Catastrophic loss of the day:
Radford 82, @Georgetown 80 (2OT) - oh no
Scores of note:
@Providence 76, Harvard 64 - it does appear Harvard is a bit down this year
Alabama St 85, @Virginia Tech 82 - VT isn't supposed to be good, but still....that's a SWAC team, bro
SMU 85, Sam Houston St 50 - so I think I'll cover SMU just like any other team...because wins off of them count as quality wins, so we need to keep tabs
Easy winners include: Duke, Kentucky, Butler, Tulsa, Davidson, Oregon St, Memphis, Akron
Colorado St 84, @Northern Iowa 78 - I thought CSU wasn't supposed to be much of anything this year...file this away for later under "useful wins"....UNI in early trouble, tough to get an at-large with losses like these on the docket
Catastrophic loss of the day:
Radford 82, @Georgetown 80 (2OT) - oh no
Scores of note:
@Providence 76, Harvard 64 - it does appear Harvard is a bit down this year
Alabama St 85, @Virginia Tech 82 - VT isn't supposed to be good, but still....that's a SWAC team, bro
SMU 85, Sam Houston St 50 - so I think I'll cover SMU just like any other team...because wins off of them count as quality wins, so we need to keep tabs
Easy winners include: Duke, Kentucky, Butler, Tulsa, Davidson, Oregon St, Memphis, Akron
Saturday, November 14, 2015
11/13 recap
Signature wins of the day:
@Baylor 97, Stephen F Austin 55 - the margin is notable here, a 40 pt win over a probable tourney team doesn't hurt
North Florida 93, @Illinois 81 - this can be worth a seed line in March, which for UNF is big. Getting off the 16 line is huge
Belmont 83, @Marquette 80 - also qualifies as a catastrophic loss for Marquette, but a nice win for a team that likes to live on the periphery of the bubble
Catastrophic losses of the day:
Western Illinois 69, @Wisconsin 67 - I mean, WIU isn't even really an upper-table team in the Summit. There's no good way to spin this, this is worth a seeding line (or 3) in March
Chattanooga 92, @Georgia 90 (OT) - at least Chattanooga is a SoCon contender so this isn't the death blow that WIU is, but still....not good
William & Mary 85, @NC State 68 - in what's supposed to be a loaded ACC, NC State is already a step behind the pack
@Montana 74, Boise St 72 - probably harsh to ding Boise for a true road loss at a solid team, but this really puts them behind the pack in the bubble race
@Auburn 75, UAB 74 - hard to criticize a road loss, but as far as power conference wins goes, this was as gettable as they come for UAB
Monmouth 84, @UCLA 81 (OT) - at least Monmouth is an upper-level MAAC team. Still not a good look though, but it's recoverable
Catastrophic cancellations of the day:
Pittsburgh/Gonzaga - Pitt will have plenty of signature win chances later, so it's fine. For a Gonzaga team that relies on the non-con for a SoS boost, it's borderline disastrous that they don't have this on their SoS ledger
Results of note:
North Carolina 91, Temple 64 - neutral site win
@Iowa St 68, Colorado 62 - service held
Sacramento St 66, @Arizona St 63 - ASU won't be relevant this year, but still
James Madison 87, @Richmond 75 - CAA favorite (or 2nd favorite) beats mid-table A-10 team on the road. Could be useful info for later
@New Mexico 86, Texas Southern 57 - TSU won't play their way off the 16 line this year
Utah St 73, @Weber St 70
@Stanford 93, Green Bay 89 (OT) - close call
@Missouri 83, Wofford 74 - many mid-majors snagged a nice win. Wofford wasn't one of them
@Texas Tech 77, High Point 73 - neither did HPU
@San Diego St 71, Illinois St 60
Washington 77, Texas 71
Screw you, I'm not listing out full scores, so here's a list of top teams who handled cupcake-like opponents:
Kentucky, Maryland, Kansas, Duke, Virginia, Wichita St, Villanova, Arizona, Michigan St, Cal, Indiana, Utah, Vandy, Notre Dame, UConn, Purdue, Michigan, LSU, Central Michigan, Ole Miss, Old Dominion, West Virginia, VCU, Cincinnati, Dayton, Miami, Syracuse, Louisville, Xavier, Oklahoma St, Northwestern, Rhode Island, Valparaiso, BYU, Florida, Iowa, Texas A&M
@Baylor 97, Stephen F Austin 55 - the margin is notable here, a 40 pt win over a probable tourney team doesn't hurt
North Florida 93, @Illinois 81 - this can be worth a seed line in March, which for UNF is big. Getting off the 16 line is huge
Belmont 83, @Marquette 80 - also qualifies as a catastrophic loss for Marquette, but a nice win for a team that likes to live on the periphery of the bubble
Catastrophic losses of the day:
Western Illinois 69, @Wisconsin 67 - I mean, WIU isn't even really an upper-table team in the Summit. There's no good way to spin this, this is worth a seeding line (or 3) in March
Chattanooga 92, @Georgia 90 (OT) - at least Chattanooga is a SoCon contender so this isn't the death blow that WIU is, but still....not good
William & Mary 85, @NC State 68 - in what's supposed to be a loaded ACC, NC State is already a step behind the pack
@Montana 74, Boise St 72 - probably harsh to ding Boise for a true road loss at a solid team, but this really puts them behind the pack in the bubble race
@Auburn 75, UAB 74 - hard to criticize a road loss, but as far as power conference wins goes, this was as gettable as they come for UAB
Monmouth 84, @UCLA 81 (OT) - at least Monmouth is an upper-level MAAC team. Still not a good look though, but it's recoverable
Catastrophic cancellations of the day:
Pittsburgh/Gonzaga - Pitt will have plenty of signature win chances later, so it's fine. For a Gonzaga team that relies on the non-con for a SoS boost, it's borderline disastrous that they don't have this on their SoS ledger
Results of note:
North Carolina 91, Temple 64 - neutral site win
@Iowa St 68, Colorado 62 - service held
Sacramento St 66, @Arizona St 63 - ASU won't be relevant this year, but still
James Madison 87, @Richmond 75 - CAA favorite (or 2nd favorite) beats mid-table A-10 team on the road. Could be useful info for later
@New Mexico 86, Texas Southern 57 - TSU won't play their way off the 16 line this year
Utah St 73, @Weber St 70
@Stanford 93, Green Bay 89 (OT) - close call
@Missouri 83, Wofford 74 - many mid-majors snagged a nice win. Wofford wasn't one of them
@Texas Tech 77, High Point 73 - neither did HPU
@San Diego St 71, Illinois St 60
Washington 77, Texas 71
Screw you, I'm not listing out full scores, so here's a list of top teams who handled cupcake-like opponents:
Kentucky, Maryland, Kansas, Duke, Virginia, Wichita St, Villanova, Arizona, Michigan St, Cal, Indiana, Utah, Vandy, Notre Dame, UConn, Purdue, Michigan, LSU, Central Michigan, Ole Miss, Old Dominion, West Virginia, VCU, Cincinnati, Dayton, Miami, Syracuse, Louisville, Xavier, Oklahoma St, Northwestern, Rhode Island, Valparaiso, BYU, Florida, Iowa, Texas A&M
Friday, November 13, 2015
11/13 S-CURVE
There's some tweaking from the October S-Curve, but it's mostly the same as before.
The 1 line: North Carolina, Maryland, Kentucky, Kansas
The 2 line: Arizona, Villanova, Wichita St, Duke
The 3 line: Indiana, Gonzaga, Oklahoma, California
The 4 line: Iowa St, Michigan St, Virginia, Georgetown
The 5 line: Baylor, Louisville, San Diego St, Purdue,
The 6 line: LSU, Rhode Island, Xavier, Notre Dame
The 7 line: Wisconsin, Utah, Vanderbilt, UConn
The 8 line: Cincinnati, Michigan, Dayton, Butler
The 9 line: Boise St, Texas A&M, Oregon, Providence
The 10 line: Valparaiso, Texas, North Carolina St, Northern Iowa
The 11 line: Ohio St, Davidson, Central Michigan, Tulsa
The 12 line: Oregon St, Florida, Florida St, UCLA, Marquette, Old Dominion
The 13 line: Iona, Belmont, Columbia, Montana
The 14 line: Hofstra, UC Irvine, North Florida, Stephen F Austin
The 15 line: Louisiana-Lafayette, Wofford, South Dakota St, Stony Brook
The 16 line: New Mexico St, Robert Morris, High Point, Lehigh, North Carolina Central, Texas Southern
Bubble in:
Texas A&M
Oregon
Providence
Valparaiso *in as automatic bid
Texas
North Carolina St
Northern Iowa
Next 4 in:
Ohio St
Davidson
Central Michigan *in as automatic bid
Tulsa
Oregon St
Last 4 in:
Florida
Florida St
UCLA
Marquette
Last 4 out:
Northwestern
Evansville
Old Dominion *in as automatic bid
Miami
West Virginia
Next 4 out:
Pittsburgh
UAB
Mississippi St
BYU
Bubble inception (we have to go deeper):
Iowa
Illinois St
Pepperdine
Utah St
Syracuse
Oklahoma St
Syracuse
Akron
edit after the fact: oops. First version of this post had Akron up in the bracket, second version has them out, and the Matrix picked up the first version. No biggie.
The 1 line: North Carolina, Maryland, Kentucky, Kansas
The 2 line: Arizona, Villanova, Wichita St, Duke
The 3 line: Indiana, Gonzaga, Oklahoma, California
The 4 line: Iowa St, Michigan St, Virginia, Georgetown
The 5 line: Baylor, Louisville, San Diego St, Purdue,
The 6 line: LSU, Rhode Island, Xavier, Notre Dame
The 7 line: Wisconsin, Utah, Vanderbilt, UConn
The 8 line: Cincinnati, Michigan, Dayton, Butler
The 9 line: Boise St, Texas A&M, Oregon, Providence
The 10 line: Valparaiso, Texas, North Carolina St, Northern Iowa
The 11 line: Ohio St, Davidson, Central Michigan, Tulsa
The 12 line: Oregon St, Florida, Florida St, UCLA, Marquette, Old Dominion
The 13 line: Iona, Belmont, Columbia, Montana
The 14 line: Hofstra, UC Irvine, North Florida, Stephen F Austin
The 15 line: Louisiana-Lafayette, Wofford, South Dakota St, Stony Brook
The 16 line: New Mexico St, Robert Morris, High Point, Lehigh, North Carolina Central, Texas Southern
Bubble in:
Texas A&M
Oregon
Providence
Valparaiso *in as automatic bid
Texas
North Carolina St
Northern Iowa
Next 4 in:
Ohio St
Davidson
Central Michigan *in as automatic bid
Tulsa
Oregon St
Last 4 in:
Florida
Florida St
UCLA
Marquette
Last 4 out:
Northwestern
Evansville
Old Dominion *in as automatic bid
Miami
West Virginia
Next 4 out:
Pittsburgh
UAB
Mississippi St
BYU
Bubble inception (we have to go deeper):
Iowa
Illinois St
Pepperdine
Utah St
Syracuse
Oklahoma St
Syracuse
Akron
edit after the fact: oops. First version of this post had Akron up in the bracket, second version has them out, and the Matrix picked up the first version. No biggie.
The first Bracket Matrix is up
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
Some quick thoughts as I compare my rankings to everyone else's:
1) Virginia is a consensus 2 seed
I'm okay with this, even though I have them on the 4 line, the lowest of anyone. My simple retort is one of mathematics. The ACC is deep and I expect several mid-table teams to pick off games against UNC/Duke/Virginia. Are there enough wins to go around to create 3 ACC teams on the top 2 lines? I think Virginia will absorb a couple more body blows in ACC play than the other two teams, and it'll be worth a seeding line or so in March.
2) The Big East
The 2nd highest BEast team on the Matrix is Butler as the last 6 seed, then G'town as the first 7 seed. If the BEast is as good as I think it is....there's no way their 2nd best team is only the last 6 seed. They'll be much higher. I made my bet on Georgetown as that team. So I think the Matrix is wrong....but I see why the Matrix is off here. People can't make up their mind as to who Big East #2 is, as Butler and Georgetown have a few 4 seeds and Xavier has a few 5s.
3) San Diego St as a consensus 9 seed, 5 seed here
I feel like SDSU (and Boise) will run away from the rest of the league, and the committee has given 5 seeds (or similar seeds) to teams who run away with conferences like the MWC. Feels more right than not to start SDSU high.
4) The A-10
The Matrix has 3 A-10 teams in the bracket, but all in the 10-11 seed range. Its best team on the 10 line? That seems highly unlikely to me. This seems to be another case where a lack of consensus hurts the Matrix performance - there seems to be a lot of disagreement on whether any single team can make the tournament. URI and Dayton are out of several brackets.
5) I know it's hard to do in the preseason, but go look at Wichita's last 2 regular seasons and their current starting backcourt. They just can't be below the 3 line, right?
6) The Pac-12
One place I might be too aggressive is on the Pac-12. I count only 2 sure bets (Cal and Arizona). Well, Utah too, but a step behind. If the league doesn't supply quality wins, can they get a 3 and 2 seed, respectively? Maybe. But the degree of difficulty might be high.
Some quick thoughts as I compare my rankings to everyone else's:
1) Virginia is a consensus 2 seed
I'm okay with this, even though I have them on the 4 line, the lowest of anyone. My simple retort is one of mathematics. The ACC is deep and I expect several mid-table teams to pick off games against UNC/Duke/Virginia. Are there enough wins to go around to create 3 ACC teams on the top 2 lines? I think Virginia will absorb a couple more body blows in ACC play than the other two teams, and it'll be worth a seeding line or so in March.
2) The Big East
The 2nd highest BEast team on the Matrix is Butler as the last 6 seed, then G'town as the first 7 seed. If the BEast is as good as I think it is....there's no way their 2nd best team is only the last 6 seed. They'll be much higher. I made my bet on Georgetown as that team. So I think the Matrix is wrong....but I see why the Matrix is off here. People can't make up their mind as to who Big East #2 is, as Butler and Georgetown have a few 4 seeds and Xavier has a few 5s.
3) San Diego St as a consensus 9 seed, 5 seed here
I feel like SDSU (and Boise) will run away from the rest of the league, and the committee has given 5 seeds (or similar seeds) to teams who run away with conferences like the MWC. Feels more right than not to start SDSU high.
4) The A-10
The Matrix has 3 A-10 teams in the bracket, but all in the 10-11 seed range. Its best team on the 10 line? That seems highly unlikely to me. This seems to be another case where a lack of consensus hurts the Matrix performance - there seems to be a lot of disagreement on whether any single team can make the tournament. URI and Dayton are out of several brackets.
5) I know it's hard to do in the preseason, but go look at Wichita's last 2 regular seasons and their current starting backcourt. They just can't be below the 3 line, right?
6) The Pac-12
One place I might be too aggressive is on the Pac-12. I count only 2 sure bets (Cal and Arizona). Well, Utah too, but a step behind. If the league doesn't supply quality wins, can they get a 3 and 2 seed, respectively? Maybe. But the degree of difficulty might be high.
Thursday, November 12, 2015
IT BEGINS
The season begins tomorrow. If you're unfamiliar with the blog format, here's what we do here:
Daily:
1) A recap post telling you every score of relevance from last night's games. We tell you what results mattered, what didn't, and how it impacts the bracket. The goal is to make sure no result goes under the radar. That sexy mid-major pick get a road win? We'll tell you. Did a power conference school punt a horrible game that makes the whole conference look bad? We'll tell you in our feature Catastrophic Loss of the Day.
2) A preview post telling you what you need to pay attention to today. We'll highlight the games that will matter in March when you're looking at all those team sheets. The goal is to make sure no game goes under the radar.
On a schedule:
1) Bracketology: It'll be intermittent in November/December, but once January hits, we go weekly. February we go twice-weekly, and we'll ramp up to daily updates and even more by Selection Sunday.
2) Bubble Watch: Periodically this year, we'll get word-happy and provide a full-blown Bubble Watch for every team in the country. These take time to write, so don't expect more than a few. But these will include all the snapshot views you need to see before making your bracket.
3) Holiday tournaments: Soon, we'll get preview posts up for each and every non-conference tournament ever.
Irregularly:
1) Expect occasional posts dealing with topic like non-conference SoS, conference races, conference rankings, and the like. I can't do detailed breakdowns for every team, so we'll highlight the unusual and noteworthy.
Daily:
1) A recap post telling you every score of relevance from last night's games. We tell you what results mattered, what didn't, and how it impacts the bracket. The goal is to make sure no result goes under the radar. That sexy mid-major pick get a road win? We'll tell you. Did a power conference school punt a horrible game that makes the whole conference look bad? We'll tell you in our feature Catastrophic Loss of the Day.
2) A preview post telling you what you need to pay attention to today. We'll highlight the games that will matter in March when you're looking at all those team sheets. The goal is to make sure no game goes under the radar.
On a schedule:
1) Bracketology: It'll be intermittent in November/December, but once January hits, we go weekly. February we go twice-weekly, and we'll ramp up to daily updates and even more by Selection Sunday.
2) Bubble Watch: Periodically this year, we'll get word-happy and provide a full-blown Bubble Watch for every team in the country. These take time to write, so don't expect more than a few. But these will include all the snapshot views you need to see before making your bracket.
3) Holiday tournaments: Soon, we'll get preview posts up for each and every non-conference tournament ever.
Irregularly:
1) Expect occasional posts dealing with topic like non-conference SoS, conference races, conference rankings, and the like. I can't do detailed breakdowns for every team, so we'll highlight the unusual and noteworthy.
Monday, October 5, 2015
Preseason S-CURVE
The 1 line: North Carolina, Maryland, Kentucky, Kansas
The 2 line: Arizona, Duke, Wichita St, Villanova
The 3 line: Indiana, Gonzaga, Oklahoma, Michigan St
The 4 line: Iowa St, Virginia, Wisconsin, Baylor
The 5 line: Louisville, Georgetown, San Diego St, Purdue
The 6 line: California, Xavier, Notre Dame, Rhode Island
The 7 line: Butler, Vanderbilt, Michigan, Utah
The 8 line: UConn, Dayton, Florida, Tulsa
The 9 line: Florida St, Texas A&M, Boise St, Northern Iowa
The 10 line: Buffalo, LSU, Oregon, Cincinnati
The 11 line: Oregon St, Davidson, Texas, Ohio St
The 12 line: North Carolina St, Marquette, UCLA, Central Michigan, Old Dominion, Valparaiso
The 13 line: Iona, Belmont, Harvard, Montana
The 14 line: Hofstra, UC Irvine, North Florida, Stephen F Austin
The 15 line: Louisiana-Lafayette, Wofford, South Dakota St, Stony Brook
The 16 line: New Mexico St, Robert Morris, High Point, Lehigh, North Carolina Central, Texas Southern
Next 4 in:
Oregon St
Davidson
Texas
Ohio St
Last 4 in:
North Carolina St
Marquette
UCLA
Central Michigan
Last 4 out:
Northwestern
BYU
Illinois St
West Virginia
Next 4 out:
UNLV
Illinois
Syracuse
Miami
Break it down! (seeds in parens):
Big 10 7 (1, 3, 3, 4, 5, 7, 11)
ACC 7 (1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 9, 12)
Pac-12 6 (2, 6, 7, 10, 11, 12)
Big 12 5 (1, 3, 4, 4, 11)
Big East 5 (2, 5, 6, 7, 12)
SEC 5 (1, 7, 8, 9, 10)
AAC 3 (8, 8, 10)
A-10 3 (6, 8, 11)
MVC 2 (2, 9)
Mountain West 2 (5, 9)
MAC 2 (10, 12)
Trends:
1) I expect the Big 12 to be more top-heavy. It's certainly possible teams outside the big 4 this year (KU/ISU/OU/BU) get pulled up by osmosis, but for now I predict a 4-team breakaway and only enough wins for one other team (Texas for now) to get through. I don't think you'll see 6 or 7.
2) Pretty clear who the top 2 conferences are this year. B1G and ACC with 7 apiece, and I could easily see 8 for both.
3) I'm struggling to find Pac-12 teams that I think can really be high up. They'll get their fair share in, but they may not be highly ranked. Same situation in the SEC, but that's not new. Actually, I'm willing to bet it's more likely the SEC has a second high seed than the Pac-12.
4) The AAC is in all sorts of trouble, especially if SMU dominates the conference like I think they could.
5) If you do not know, it's tradition here to project an at-large bid for the MAC.
The 2 line: Arizona, Duke, Wichita St, Villanova
The 3 line: Indiana, Gonzaga, Oklahoma, Michigan St
The 4 line: Iowa St, Virginia, Wisconsin, Baylor
The 5 line: Louisville, Georgetown, San Diego St, Purdue
The 6 line: California, Xavier, Notre Dame, Rhode Island
The 7 line: Butler, Vanderbilt, Michigan, Utah
The 8 line: UConn, Dayton, Florida, Tulsa
The 9 line: Florida St, Texas A&M, Boise St, Northern Iowa
The 10 line: Buffalo, LSU, Oregon, Cincinnati
The 11 line: Oregon St, Davidson, Texas, Ohio St
The 12 line: North Carolina St, Marquette, UCLA, Central Michigan, Old Dominion, Valparaiso
The 13 line: Iona, Belmont, Harvard, Montana
The 14 line: Hofstra, UC Irvine, North Florida, Stephen F Austin
The 15 line: Louisiana-Lafayette, Wofford, South Dakota St, Stony Brook
The 16 line: New Mexico St, Robert Morris, High Point, Lehigh, North Carolina Central, Texas Southern
Next 4 in:
Oregon St
Davidson
Texas
Ohio St
Last 4 in:
North Carolina St
Marquette
UCLA
Central Michigan
Last 4 out:
Northwestern
BYU
Illinois St
West Virginia
Next 4 out:
UNLV
Illinois
Syracuse
Miami
Break it down! (seeds in parens):
Big 10 7 (1, 3, 3, 4, 5, 7, 11)
ACC 7 (1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 9, 12)
Pac-12 6 (2, 6, 7, 10, 11, 12)
Big 12 5 (1, 3, 4, 4, 11)
Big East 5 (2, 5, 6, 7, 12)
SEC 5 (1, 7, 8, 9, 10)
AAC 3 (8, 8, 10)
A-10 3 (6, 8, 11)
MVC 2 (2, 9)
Mountain West 2 (5, 9)
MAC 2 (10, 12)
Trends:
1) I expect the Big 12 to be more top-heavy. It's certainly possible teams outside the big 4 this year (KU/ISU/OU/BU) get pulled up by osmosis, but for now I predict a 4-team breakaway and only enough wins for one other team (Texas for now) to get through. I don't think you'll see 6 or 7.
2) Pretty clear who the top 2 conferences are this year. B1G and ACC with 7 apiece, and I could easily see 8 for both.
3) I'm struggling to find Pac-12 teams that I think can really be high up. They'll get their fair share in, but they may not be highly ranked. Same situation in the SEC, but that's not new. Actually, I'm willing to bet it's more likely the SEC has a second high seed than the Pac-12.
4) The AAC is in all sorts of trouble, especially if SMU dominates the conference like I think they could.
5) If you do not know, it's tradition here to project an at-large bid for the MAC.
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