http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
Some quick thoughts as I compare my rankings to everyone else's:
1) Virginia is a consensus 2 seed
I'm okay with this, even though I have them on the 4 line, the lowest of anyone. My simple retort is one of mathematics. The ACC is deep and I expect several mid-table teams to pick off games against UNC/Duke/Virginia. Are there enough wins to go around to create 3 ACC teams on the top 2 lines? I think Virginia will absorb a couple more body blows in ACC play than the other two teams, and it'll be worth a seeding line or so in March.
2) The Big East
The 2nd highest BEast team on the Matrix is Butler as the last 6 seed, then G'town as the first 7 seed. If the BEast is as good as I think it is....there's no way their 2nd best team is only the last 6 seed. They'll be much higher. I made my bet on Georgetown as that team. So I think the Matrix is wrong....but I see why the Matrix is off here. People can't make up their mind as to who Big East #2 is, as Butler and Georgetown have a few 4 seeds and Xavier has a few 5s.
3) San Diego St as a consensus 9 seed, 5 seed here
I feel like SDSU (and Boise) will run away from the rest of the league, and the committee has given 5 seeds (or similar seeds) to teams who run away with conferences like the MWC. Feels more right than not to start SDSU high.
4) The A-10
The Matrix has 3 A-10 teams in the bracket, but all in the 10-11 seed range. Its best team on the 10 line? That seems highly unlikely to me. This seems to be another case where a lack of consensus hurts the Matrix performance - there seems to be a lot of disagreement on whether any single team can make the tournament. URI and Dayton are out of several brackets.
5) I know it's hard to do in the preseason, but go look at Wichita's last 2 regular seasons and their current starting backcourt. They just can't be below the 3 line, right?
6) The Pac-12
One place I might be too aggressive is on the Pac-12. I count only 2 sure bets (Cal and Arizona). Well, Utah too, but a step behind. If the league doesn't supply quality wins, can they get a 3 and 2 seed, respectively? Maybe. But the degree of difficulty might be high.
Friday, November 13, 2015
Thursday, November 12, 2015
IT BEGINS
The season begins tomorrow. If you're unfamiliar with the blog format, here's what we do here:
Daily:
1) A recap post telling you every score of relevance from last night's games. We tell you what results mattered, what didn't, and how it impacts the bracket. The goal is to make sure no result goes under the radar. That sexy mid-major pick get a road win? We'll tell you. Did a power conference school punt a horrible game that makes the whole conference look bad? We'll tell you in our feature Catastrophic Loss of the Day.
2) A preview post telling you what you need to pay attention to today. We'll highlight the games that will matter in March when you're looking at all those team sheets. The goal is to make sure no game goes under the radar.
On a schedule:
1) Bracketology: It'll be intermittent in November/December, but once January hits, we go weekly. February we go twice-weekly, and we'll ramp up to daily updates and even more by Selection Sunday.
2) Bubble Watch: Periodically this year, we'll get word-happy and provide a full-blown Bubble Watch for every team in the country. These take time to write, so don't expect more than a few. But these will include all the snapshot views you need to see before making your bracket.
3) Holiday tournaments: Soon, we'll get preview posts up for each and every non-conference tournament ever.
Irregularly:
1) Expect occasional posts dealing with topic like non-conference SoS, conference races, conference rankings, and the like. I can't do detailed breakdowns for every team, so we'll highlight the unusual and noteworthy.
Daily:
1) A recap post telling you every score of relevance from last night's games. We tell you what results mattered, what didn't, and how it impacts the bracket. The goal is to make sure no result goes under the radar. That sexy mid-major pick get a road win? We'll tell you. Did a power conference school punt a horrible game that makes the whole conference look bad? We'll tell you in our feature Catastrophic Loss of the Day.
2) A preview post telling you what you need to pay attention to today. We'll highlight the games that will matter in March when you're looking at all those team sheets. The goal is to make sure no game goes under the radar.
On a schedule:
1) Bracketology: It'll be intermittent in November/December, but once January hits, we go weekly. February we go twice-weekly, and we'll ramp up to daily updates and even more by Selection Sunday.
2) Bubble Watch: Periodically this year, we'll get word-happy and provide a full-blown Bubble Watch for every team in the country. These take time to write, so don't expect more than a few. But these will include all the snapshot views you need to see before making your bracket.
3) Holiday tournaments: Soon, we'll get preview posts up for each and every non-conference tournament ever.
Irregularly:
1) Expect occasional posts dealing with topic like non-conference SoS, conference races, conference rankings, and the like. I can't do detailed breakdowns for every team, so we'll highlight the unusual and noteworthy.
Monday, October 5, 2015
Preseason S-CURVE
The 1 line: North Carolina, Maryland, Kentucky, Kansas
The 2 line: Arizona, Duke, Wichita St, Villanova
The 3 line: Indiana, Gonzaga, Oklahoma, Michigan St
The 4 line: Iowa St, Virginia, Wisconsin, Baylor
The 5 line: Louisville, Georgetown, San Diego St, Purdue
The 6 line: California, Xavier, Notre Dame, Rhode Island
The 7 line: Butler, Vanderbilt, Michigan, Utah
The 8 line: UConn, Dayton, Florida, Tulsa
The 9 line: Florida St, Texas A&M, Boise St, Northern Iowa
The 10 line: Buffalo, LSU, Oregon, Cincinnati
The 11 line: Oregon St, Davidson, Texas, Ohio St
The 12 line: North Carolina St, Marquette, UCLA, Central Michigan, Old Dominion, Valparaiso
The 13 line: Iona, Belmont, Harvard, Montana
The 14 line: Hofstra, UC Irvine, North Florida, Stephen F Austin
The 15 line: Louisiana-Lafayette, Wofford, South Dakota St, Stony Brook
The 16 line: New Mexico St, Robert Morris, High Point, Lehigh, North Carolina Central, Texas Southern
Next 4 in:
Oregon St
Davidson
Texas
Ohio St
Last 4 in:
North Carolina St
Marquette
UCLA
Central Michigan
Last 4 out:
Northwestern
BYU
Illinois St
West Virginia
Next 4 out:
UNLV
Illinois
Syracuse
Miami
Break it down! (seeds in parens):
Big 10 7 (1, 3, 3, 4, 5, 7, 11)
ACC 7 (1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 9, 12)
Pac-12 6 (2, 6, 7, 10, 11, 12)
Big 12 5 (1, 3, 4, 4, 11)
Big East 5 (2, 5, 6, 7, 12)
SEC 5 (1, 7, 8, 9, 10)
AAC 3 (8, 8, 10)
A-10 3 (6, 8, 11)
MVC 2 (2, 9)
Mountain West 2 (5, 9)
MAC 2 (10, 12)
Trends:
1) I expect the Big 12 to be more top-heavy. It's certainly possible teams outside the big 4 this year (KU/ISU/OU/BU) get pulled up by osmosis, but for now I predict a 4-team breakaway and only enough wins for one other team (Texas for now) to get through. I don't think you'll see 6 or 7.
2) Pretty clear who the top 2 conferences are this year. B1G and ACC with 7 apiece, and I could easily see 8 for both.
3) I'm struggling to find Pac-12 teams that I think can really be high up. They'll get their fair share in, but they may not be highly ranked. Same situation in the SEC, but that's not new. Actually, I'm willing to bet it's more likely the SEC has a second high seed than the Pac-12.
4) The AAC is in all sorts of trouble, especially if SMU dominates the conference like I think they could.
5) If you do not know, it's tradition here to project an at-large bid for the MAC.
The 2 line: Arizona, Duke, Wichita St, Villanova
The 3 line: Indiana, Gonzaga, Oklahoma, Michigan St
The 4 line: Iowa St, Virginia, Wisconsin, Baylor
The 5 line: Louisville, Georgetown, San Diego St, Purdue
The 6 line: California, Xavier, Notre Dame, Rhode Island
The 7 line: Butler, Vanderbilt, Michigan, Utah
The 8 line: UConn, Dayton, Florida, Tulsa
The 9 line: Florida St, Texas A&M, Boise St, Northern Iowa
The 10 line: Buffalo, LSU, Oregon, Cincinnati
The 11 line: Oregon St, Davidson, Texas, Ohio St
The 12 line: North Carolina St, Marquette, UCLA, Central Michigan, Old Dominion, Valparaiso
The 13 line: Iona, Belmont, Harvard, Montana
The 14 line: Hofstra, UC Irvine, North Florida, Stephen F Austin
The 15 line: Louisiana-Lafayette, Wofford, South Dakota St, Stony Brook
The 16 line: New Mexico St, Robert Morris, High Point, Lehigh, North Carolina Central, Texas Southern
Next 4 in:
Oregon St
Davidson
Texas
Ohio St
Last 4 in:
North Carolina St
Marquette
UCLA
Central Michigan
Last 4 out:
Northwestern
BYU
Illinois St
West Virginia
Next 4 out:
UNLV
Illinois
Syracuse
Miami
Break it down! (seeds in parens):
Big 10 7 (1, 3, 3, 4, 5, 7, 11)
ACC 7 (1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 9, 12)
Pac-12 6 (2, 6, 7, 10, 11, 12)
Big 12 5 (1, 3, 4, 4, 11)
Big East 5 (2, 5, 6, 7, 12)
SEC 5 (1, 7, 8, 9, 10)
AAC 3 (8, 8, 10)
A-10 3 (6, 8, 11)
MVC 2 (2, 9)
Mountain West 2 (5, 9)
MAC 2 (10, 12)
Trends:
1) I expect the Big 12 to be more top-heavy. It's certainly possible teams outside the big 4 this year (KU/ISU/OU/BU) get pulled up by osmosis, but for now I predict a 4-team breakaway and only enough wins for one other team (Texas for now) to get through. I don't think you'll see 6 or 7.
2) Pretty clear who the top 2 conferences are this year. B1G and ACC with 7 apiece, and I could easily see 8 for both.
3) I'm struggling to find Pac-12 teams that I think can really be high up. They'll get their fair share in, but they may not be highly ranked. Same situation in the SEC, but that's not new. Actually, I'm willing to bet it's more likely the SEC has a second high seed than the Pac-12.
4) The AAC is in all sorts of trouble, especially if SMU dominates the conference like I think they could.
5) If you do not know, it's tradition here to project an at-large bid for the MAC.
Preseason BRACKET
EAST
@Raleigh
1) North Carolina vs. 16) Texas Southern/Lehigh
8) Florida vs. 9) Northern Iowa
@Spokane
4) Baylor vs. 13) Montana
5) Purdue vs. 12) North Carolina St/Marquette
@Des Moines
3) Michigan St vs. 14) Hofstra
6) Notre Dame vs. 11) Davidson
@Brooklyn
2) Villanova vs. 15) Stony Brook
7) Utah vs. 10) Cincinnati
WEST
@Oklahoma City
1) Kansas vs. 16) New Mexico St
8) Tulsa vs. 9) Boise St
@Providence
4) Wisconsin vs. 13) Harvard
5) Louisville vs. 12) Old Dominion
@Spokane
3) Gonzaga vs. 14) UC Irvine
6) Rhode Island vs. 11) Oregon St
@Denver
2) Arizona vs. 15) South Dakota St
7) Michigan vs. 10) Buffalo
MIDWEST
@St Louis
1) Kentucky vs. 16) Robert Morris
8) Dayton vs. 9) Florida St
@Providence
4) Virginia vs. 13) Iona
5) Georgetown vs. 12) UCLA/Central Michigan
@Des Moines
3) Indiana vs. 14) North Florida
6) Xavier vs. 11) Texas
@St Louis
2) Wichita St vs. 15) Louisiana-Lafayette
7) Butler vs. 10) LSU
SOUTH
@Brooklyn
1) Maryland vs. 16) North Carolina Central/High Point
8) UConn vs. 9) Texas A&M
@Denver
4) Iowa St vs. 13) Belmont
5) San Diego St vs. 12) Valparaiso
@Oklahoma City
3) Oklahoma vs. 14) Stephen F Austin
6) California vs. 11) Ohio St
@Raleigh
2) Duke vs. 15) Wofford
7) Vanderbilt vs. 10) Oregon
Here's some odd things that showed up when I bracketed this:
1) Among the top 16 seeds, I have 3 ACC teams, 4 B1G teams, and 4 Big 12 teams. This eventually led to the odd situation of not being able to separate the top 4 Big 12 teams into 4 separate regionals. Well, I could, but I'd have to send several teams way away from their geographic preference. Presented with this puzzle, I think the committee would put a 3 seed and 4 seed from the same conference together.
2) Rhode Island, going cross-country to play Oregon St in Spokane, then Gonzaga if they survive. This is because they were the last 6 seed on my S-Curve. If they were the first 7 seed, they'd play in Brooklyn. I wonder if URI would gladly give up a seed in this scenario.
3) Oklahoma has a golden chance to play early in OKC, but they gotta beat out their Big 12 bretheren to do it.
4) Right now, I have a play-in game winner going to Spokane. Here's the issue: I only have 1 of 4 sites hosting a 12 seed being a Friday/Sunday site, and that's Spokane. Same for the 13 line. On the 11 line, 2 of 4 sites is a Friday/Sunday sites, but that's Spokane and OKC. With UCLA in my play-in game, they need to be Friday/Sunday to allow them to travel...but Cal blocks them from OKC. All and all, it's a mess, and I gave up since it's just the preseason, but early returns are that the sites closest to Dayton (St Louis and Des Moines and Brooklyn) won't be in position to actually host those winners.
@Raleigh
1) North Carolina vs. 16) Texas Southern/Lehigh
8) Florida vs. 9) Northern Iowa
@Spokane
4) Baylor vs. 13) Montana
5) Purdue vs. 12) North Carolina St/Marquette
@Des Moines
3) Michigan St vs. 14) Hofstra
6) Notre Dame vs. 11) Davidson
@Brooklyn
2) Villanova vs. 15) Stony Brook
7) Utah vs. 10) Cincinnati
WEST
@Oklahoma City
1) Kansas vs. 16) New Mexico St
8) Tulsa vs. 9) Boise St
@Providence
4) Wisconsin vs. 13) Harvard
5) Louisville vs. 12) Old Dominion
@Spokane
3) Gonzaga vs. 14) UC Irvine
6) Rhode Island vs. 11) Oregon St
@Denver
2) Arizona vs. 15) South Dakota St
7) Michigan vs. 10) Buffalo
MIDWEST
@St Louis
1) Kentucky vs. 16) Robert Morris
8) Dayton vs. 9) Florida St
@Providence
4) Virginia vs. 13) Iona
5) Georgetown vs. 12) UCLA/Central Michigan
@Des Moines
3) Indiana vs. 14) North Florida
6) Xavier vs. 11) Texas
@St Louis
2) Wichita St vs. 15) Louisiana-Lafayette
7) Butler vs. 10) LSU
SOUTH
@Brooklyn
1) Maryland vs. 16) North Carolina Central/High Point
8) UConn vs. 9) Texas A&M
@Denver
4) Iowa St vs. 13) Belmont
5) San Diego St vs. 12) Valparaiso
@Oklahoma City
3) Oklahoma vs. 14) Stephen F Austin
6) California vs. 11) Ohio St
@Raleigh
2) Duke vs. 15) Wofford
7) Vanderbilt vs. 10) Oregon
Here's some odd things that showed up when I bracketed this:
1) Among the top 16 seeds, I have 3 ACC teams, 4 B1G teams, and 4 Big 12 teams. This eventually led to the odd situation of not being able to separate the top 4 Big 12 teams into 4 separate regionals. Well, I could, but I'd have to send several teams way away from their geographic preference. Presented with this puzzle, I think the committee would put a 3 seed and 4 seed from the same conference together.
2) Rhode Island, going cross-country to play Oregon St in Spokane, then Gonzaga if they survive. This is because they were the last 6 seed on my S-Curve. If they were the first 7 seed, they'd play in Brooklyn. I wonder if URI would gladly give up a seed in this scenario.
3) Oklahoma has a golden chance to play early in OKC, but they gotta beat out their Big 12 bretheren to do it.
4) Right now, I have a play-in game winner going to Spokane. Here's the issue: I only have 1 of 4 sites hosting a 12 seed being a Friday/Sunday site, and that's Spokane. Same for the 13 line. On the 11 line, 2 of 4 sites is a Friday/Sunday sites, but that's Spokane and OKC. With UCLA in my play-in game, they need to be Friday/Sunday to allow them to travel...but Cal blocks them from OKC. All and all, it's a mess, and I gave up since it's just the preseason, but early returns are that the sites closest to Dayton (St Louis and Des Moines and Brooklyn) won't be in position to actually host those winners.
Monday, September 28, 2015
Regional sites and you: a 2016 primer
Let's peek ahead to see where the 2016 tournament will be played, and if we can glean some useful nuggets from it. There's usually a built-in geographic advantage or disadvantage for a few teams, just based on luck of the draw.
First and second round sites:
Thursday/Saturday sites: Providence (hosted by Providence), Des Moines (hosted by Iowa St), Raleigh (hosted by NC State), Denver (hosted by the Mountain West)
Friday/Sunday sites: Brooklyn (hosted by the A-10), St Louis (hosted by the MVC), Oklahoma City (hosted by the Big 12), Spokane (somehow hosted by Idaho. What?)
Yeah, Idaho is the host site for an arena. Which is in Washington State. You figure that one out. The other 3 programs hosting sites might get hurt a bit (Providence can still wind up in Brooklyn, Iowa St in St Louis, and NC State....is gonna have to travel).
You'll notice the southernmost sites are really in Raleigh and Oklahoma City. The southeastern-based programs (looking at you, SEC), might be in for a bit of a hurt, especially once you consider that UNC and Duke are going to want to play in Raleigh. You'll also notice a void in the southwest, with no regionals in California, and the two western regionals being north in Spokane and mountainous in Denver.
The geographic cluster happens in the plains, with Des Moines, St Louis, and Oklahoma City. Expect OKC to house the best of the Big 12. The best of the Big 10 will likely funnel to Des Moines/St Louis (with the obvious exception of Maryland).
All these notable things aside, however, the geography is rather balanced. You have 3 east coast regional sites to house your east coast teams, 3 midwestern sites to house all those teams, and 2 west coast sites that should be good enough to cover all the best west coast teams. Reasonably balanced.
Regional final sites:
Thursday/Saturday: Anaheim (hosted by the Big West), Louisville (hosted by Louisville)
Friday/Sunday: Chicago (hosted by the Big 10), Philadelphia (hosted by LaSalle)
For Louisville, at least Chicago isn't that far away, so not the biggest deal. Again, notice the lack of southern options in general. The ACC frontrunners and Maryland will have 2 reasonably close sites in Louisville and Philly to choose from. Other Big 10 favorites have Chicago to gun for. Pac 12 favorites have Anaheim to go for. Big 12 frontrunners will have to travel a bit, though. And Kentucky has an in-state option.
First and second round sites:
Thursday/Saturday sites: Providence (hosted by Providence), Des Moines (hosted by Iowa St), Raleigh (hosted by NC State), Denver (hosted by the Mountain West)
Friday/Sunday sites: Brooklyn (hosted by the A-10), St Louis (hosted by the MVC), Oklahoma City (hosted by the Big 12), Spokane (somehow hosted by Idaho. What?)
Yeah, Idaho is the host site for an arena. Which is in Washington State. You figure that one out. The other 3 programs hosting sites might get hurt a bit (Providence can still wind up in Brooklyn, Iowa St in St Louis, and NC State....is gonna have to travel).
You'll notice the southernmost sites are really in Raleigh and Oklahoma City. The southeastern-based programs (looking at you, SEC), might be in for a bit of a hurt, especially once you consider that UNC and Duke are going to want to play in Raleigh. You'll also notice a void in the southwest, with no regionals in California, and the two western regionals being north in Spokane and mountainous in Denver.
The geographic cluster happens in the plains, with Des Moines, St Louis, and Oklahoma City. Expect OKC to house the best of the Big 12. The best of the Big 10 will likely funnel to Des Moines/St Louis (with the obvious exception of Maryland).
All these notable things aside, however, the geography is rather balanced. You have 3 east coast regional sites to house your east coast teams, 3 midwestern sites to house all those teams, and 2 west coast sites that should be good enough to cover all the best west coast teams. Reasonably balanced.
Regional final sites:
Thursday/Saturday: Anaheim (hosted by the Big West), Louisville (hosted by Louisville)
Friday/Sunday: Chicago (hosted by the Big 10), Philadelphia (hosted by LaSalle)
For Louisville, at least Chicago isn't that far away, so not the biggest deal. Again, notice the lack of southern options in general. The ACC frontrunners and Maryland will have 2 reasonably close sites in Louisville and Philly to choose from. Other Big 10 favorites have Chicago to gun for. Pac 12 favorites have Anaheim to go for. Big 12 frontrunners will have to travel a bit, though. And Kentucky has an in-state option.
Monday, September 21, 2015
Conference realignment 2015-16
The good news is that for the first time in a long time, the landscape is quiet. There's only a couple of minor changes from last year to this year, and neither will have a major impact on the bracketing process. This is a stark change from the last couple of years where the changes impact most of the smaller conferences.
Northern Kentucky goes from the Atlantic Sun to the Horizon - the Horizon is a full step behind the multi-bid conferences of the A-10, MVC, WCC, et al. This won't help that, but will stabilize them long-term.
NJIT goes from independent to the Atlantic Sun - the A-Sun is bottom-of-the-barrel, and NJIT might be able to content immediately.
We had a lot of changes the previous years. What has been the impact of the changes?
- Maryland and Rutgers to the Big 10 - well, Maryland's going to pay off for them now
- The American adding basketball deadweight to help out football - for two straight years now, the AAC has been hurt in selection and seeding because of their bottom-feeders. They need to rectify this situation sooner rather than later
- CUSA going to 16 teams - they had some good teams at the top, but some bad ones at the bottom. Based on how the computer numbers played out, the bad teams hurt more than the good teams helped. More evidence that bigger is not better for mid-major conferences
Things should continue to be mostly quiet (although Coastal Carolina is now on the move). Right now, it looks like the advantage is going to the mid-majors who are sticking to 10 teams instead of 14 or 16 (MWC, MVC, and WCC are getting a boon here). Along these lines, I expect that the Horizon is done after adding NKU, and the A-Sun will have a fighting chance to escape the 16 line in March.
Northern Kentucky goes from the Atlantic Sun to the Horizon - the Horizon is a full step behind the multi-bid conferences of the A-10, MVC, WCC, et al. This won't help that, but will stabilize them long-term.
NJIT goes from independent to the Atlantic Sun - the A-Sun is bottom-of-the-barrel, and NJIT might be able to content immediately.
We had a lot of changes the previous years. What has been the impact of the changes?
- Maryland and Rutgers to the Big 10 - well, Maryland's going to pay off for them now
- The American adding basketball deadweight to help out football - for two straight years now, the AAC has been hurt in selection and seeding because of their bottom-feeders. They need to rectify this situation sooner rather than later
- CUSA going to 16 teams - they had some good teams at the top, but some bad ones at the bottom. Based on how the computer numbers played out, the bad teams hurt more than the good teams helped. More evidence that bigger is not better for mid-major conferences
Things should continue to be mostly quiet (although Coastal Carolina is now on the move). Right now, it looks like the advantage is going to the mid-majors who are sticking to 10 teams instead of 14 or 16 (MWC, MVC, and WCC are getting a boon here). Along these lines, I expect that the Horizon is done after adding NKU, and the A-Sun will have a fighting chance to escape the 16 line in March.
Monday, September 14, 2015
Welcome to the 2015-16 season
This blog is back to being semi-active, starting today. Expect a few informational articles to come this month with the usual details (regional sites, conference realignment, etc.), and a preseason bracket in the next week or two.
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