Tuesday, February 4, 2014

2/4 recap

Kansas 69, Baylor 52 - missed chance for Baylor, but no real sin
Texas 59, TCU 54

Ohio St 76, Iowa 69 - Iowa bleeding a couple seed lines now; and Ohio St will return to the lockbox
Wisconsin 75, Illinois 63

Duke 83, Wake Forest 63
North Carolina 75, Maryland 63
Clemson 45, Georgia Tech 41 - Clemson won't go away

Kentucky 80, Ole Miss 64
Florida 68, Missouri 58

St John's 86, Providence 76 - catastrophic home loss for Provi.  tournament teams win these games
Marquette 69, Butler 62

Memphis 101, Rutgers 69

Eastern Kentucky 74, Chattanooga 63 - non-con game; for S-Curve purposes, #3 OVC > #1 SoCon
Stony Brook and Vermont move to joint 9-1 in the A-East; Iona to 10-2 in the MAAC


Wednesday:
St Louis at St Joseph's - St Joe's leaps into bubble conversation with a win
Oklahoma at West Virginia - WVU suddenly frisky in conference play
LaSalle at UMass - UMass needs to start accumulating wins sooner or later
Tennessee at Vanderbilt - tricky spot in a must-win for UT
Minnesota at Purdue - see Tennessee comment for Minny
Stanford at California - Pac-12 needs a lot of sorting
Wichita St at Indiana St - ISU quickly approaching the last chance saloon
San Diego St at Boise St - Boise also quickly approaching the last chance saloon

Monday, February 3, 2014

2/3 recap

Your hold-serve portion of the recap:
Syracuse 61, Notre Dame 55
Villanova 81, Xavier 58
Georgetown 71, DePaul 59

Iowa St 98, Oklahoma St 97 (3OT) - well, this actually help.  Iowa St on the 3 line, OK State back in the masses

Ga State to 9-0 on the Sun Belt, Delaware to 9-0 in the CAA, NCCU to 7-1 in the MEAC.


Tuesday:
Kansas at Baylor - sigh
Ohio St at Iowa - free run for OSU
Ole Miss at Kentucky - big chance for Ole Miss
Missouri at Florida - and likewise to Mizzou
Wisconsin at Illinois - Wisky is bleeding seeding lines at a time, need to stop
Wake Forest at Duke
Maryland at UNC
St John's at Providence

S-Curve 2/3

Your usual bracket, along with NIT/CBI/CIT projections are below.

For now, absorb this S-Curve.

The 1 line:  Syracuse (21-0), Arizona (21-1), Wichita St (22-0), Florida (19-2)
The 2 line:  San Diego St (17-1), Kansas (16-5), Michigan St (19-3), Villanova (19-2)
The 3 line:  Cincinnati (21-2), Creighton (18-3), Iowa St (16-4), Duke (17-5)
The 4 line:  Michigan (16-5), Oklahoma St (16-5), Kentucky (16-5), Iowa (16-5)
The 5 line:  Wisconsin (17-5), Texas (17-4), Memphis (15-5), Louisville (18-4)
The 6 line:  Virginia (17-5), Oklahoma (17-5), Pittsburgh (18-4), St Louis (19-2)
The 7 line:  UMass (17-4), Gonzaga (19-3), UCLA (17-5), UConn (17-4)
The 8 line:  North Carolina (14-7), G. Washington (17-4), California (15-7), New Mexico (17-4)
The 9 line:  Kansas St (15-7), VCU (18-4), Colorado (16-6), Minnesota (14-7)
The 10 line:  Ohio St (16-5), Xavier (14-6), Oregon (15-6), Missouri (16-5)
The 11 line:  Stanford (14-7), Baylor (12-7), Tennessee (13-7), Southern Miss (17-3)
The 12 line:  SMU (17-5), Providence (16-6), Arizona St (16-6), Florida St (13-8), Green Bay (15-4), Toledo (17-3)
The 13 line:  Harvard (16-3), Mercer (15-6), Delaware (16-7), UCSB (12-6)
The 14 line:  North Carolina Central (13-5), Stephen F Austin (16-2), Georgia St (13-6), Canisius (16-6)
The 15 line:  IPFW (15-6), Stony Brook (15-7), Murray St (11-8), American (13-7)
The 16 line:  Weber St (9-7), Robert Morris (12-11), Utah Valley (11-8), Chattanooga (12-9), Coastal Carolina (10-9), Southern (9-10)

Last 4 in:
*Southern Miss
SMU
Providence
Arizona St
Florida St

Last 4 out:
LSU (14-6)
Indiana (14-8)
Dayton (14-8)
Ole Miss (15-6)

Next 4 out:
BYU (14-9)
*Toledo
St Joseph's (15-6)
Richmond (14-8)
Clemson (14-6)

Consideration board:
Georgetown (12-9), Marquette (12-10), NC State (14-8), Arkansas (13-8), St Mary's (15-7), Boise St (13-7), Indiana St (15-5), Louisiana Tech (17-5), *Green Bay, *Harvard

Sunday, February 2, 2014

2/3 NIT/CBI/CIT projections

Some background, again:
NIT projections are assuming the NIT selection committee is incompetent.
CBI/CIT are completely for entertainment purposes only.  The idea is to give you an idea of the type of oppoent you may see there and how your team compares to other above .500 teams.

NIT

EAST
1) Dayton (14-6) vs. 8) Seton Hall (13-9)
4) NC State (14-8) vs. 5) Arkansas (13-8)
3) Georgetown (12-9) vs. 6) UTEP (14-6)
2) St Joseph's (15-6) vs. 7) Maryland (12-9)


MIDWEST
1) Indiana (14-8) vs. 8) Vanderbilt (12-8)
4) Ohio (15-5) vs. 5) Wake Forest (14-8)
3) Marquette (12-10) vs. 6) Northwestern (12-11)
2) Richmond (14-8) vs. 7) Belmont (16-8)

SOUTH
1) LSU (14-6) vs. 8) North Dakota St (13-6)
4) St Mary's (15-7) vs. 5) UNLV (15-7)
3) Louisiana Tech (17-5) vs. 6) St Bonaventure (12-8)
2) Clemson (14-6) vs. 7) St John's (13-9)

WEST
1) BYU (14-9) vs. 8) San Francisco (12-9)
4) Illinois (13-9) vs. 5) Indiana St (15-5)
3) Boise St (13-7) vs. 6) Washington (13-9)
2) Ole Miss (15-6) vs. 7) New Mexico St (16-7)




CBI

Utah (12-7) vs. Houston (11-11)
Nevada (12-10) vs. Pepperdine (12-10)

Mississippi St (13-8) vs. Missouri St (14-7)
Charlotte (14-7) vs. Towson (12-8)

LaSalle (12-9) vs. Cleveland St (13-9)
West Virginia (13-9) vs. Iona (12-8)

Notre Dame (12-10) vs. Butler (11-9)
Purdue (13-9) vs. Akron (14-7)


CIT

Hawaii (13-6) vs. Portland (13-10)
UALR (10-10) vs. Nicholls St (9-8)
Northern Colorado (11-6) vs. Sam Houston St (13-5)
Wyoming (12-7) vs. UC Irvine (12-9)

FGCU (12-9) vs. UAB (12-7)
Illinois St (11-10) vs. Western Kentucky (14-7)
Eastern Michigan (9-9) vs. Valparaiso (11-10)
MTSU (13-7) vs. Morehead St (13-9)

Manhattan (14-6) vs. Bryant (13-9)
Boston (15-8) vs. Brown (12-7)
Albany (11-11) vs. Rider (11-9)
Quinnipiac (13-8) vs. Vermont (12-9)

Buffalo (10-7) vs. Princeton (11-5)
William & Mary (12-8) vs. St Francis NY (13-9)
Eastern Kentucky (14-7) vs. Davidson (11-11)
Drexel (11-10) vs. Hampton (11-10)

2/3 bracket and thoughts

One note that interested me:  geographical preference was a real bitch in this bracket.  The 4 lines have teams going everywhere, and there were dicey situations even on the 3 line.  What made it the worst:  sending Iowa St and Creighton as 3 seeds pretty big distances; followed by needing those sites for the 4 line teams.  The end result is everyone traveling.  Not sure how the committee will pull that off.

EAST
@Buffalo
1) Syracuse (21-0) vs. 16) Chattanooga (12-9)/Coastal Carolina (10-9)
8) California (15-7) vs. 9) VCU (18-4)
@Orlando
4) Michigan (16-5) vs. 13) Mercer (15-6)
5) Memphis (15-5) Vs. 12) Arizona St (16-6)/Florida St (13-8)
@San Antonio
3) Iowa St (16-4) vs. 14) Georgia St (13-6)
6) St Louis (19-2) vs. 11) Stanford (14-7)
@Buffalo
2) Villanova (19-2) vs. 15) Murray St (11-8)
7) UConn (17-4) vs. 10) Ohio St (16-5)

MIDWEST
@Orlando
1) Florida (19-2) vs. 16) Robert Morris (12-11)
8) New Mexico (17-4) vs. 9) Colorado (16-6)
@San Antonio
4) Oklahoma St (16-5) vs. 13) Harvard (16-3)
5) Wisconsin (17-5) vs. 12) SMU (17-5)/Providence (16-6)
@Raleigh
3) Cincinnati (21-2) vs. 14) Stephen F Austin (16-2)
6) Virginia (17-5) vs. 11) Baylor (12-7)
@Milwaukee
2) Michigan St (19-3) vs. 15) IPFW (15-6)
7) UCLA (17-5) vs. 10) Xavier (14-6)

SOUTH
@St Louis
1) Wichita St (22-0) vs. 16) Utah Valley (11-8)/Southern (9-10)
8) G. Washington (17-4) vs. 9) Minnesota (14-7)
@San Diego
4) Kentucky (16-5) vs. 13) Delaware (16-7)
5) Texas (17-4) vs. 12) Toledo (17-3)
@Milwaukee
3) Creighton (18-3) vs. 14) Canisius (16-6)
6) Pittsburgh (18-4) vs. 11) Tennessee (13-7)
@St Louis
2) Kansas (16-5) vs. 15) Stony Brook (15-7)
7) Gonzaga (19-3) vs. 10) Oregon (15-6)

WEST
@San Diego
1) Arizona (21-1) vs. 16) Weber St (9-7)
8) North Carolina (14-7) vs. 9) Kansas St (15-7)
@Spokane
4) Iowa (16-5) vs. 13) UC Santa Barbara (12-6)
5) Louisville (18-4) vs. 12) Green Bay (15-4)
@Raleigh
3) Duke (17-5) vs. 14) North Carolina Central (13-5)
6) Oklahoma (17-5) vs. 11) Southern Miss (17-3)
@Spokane
2) San Diego St (17-1) vs. 15) American (13-7)
7) UMass (17-4) vs. 10) Missouri (16-5)

2/2 recap

Indiana 63, Michigan 52 - Well, Indiana is being persistent, at least.  Not sure what to do with them
Penn St 79, Purdue 68

Virginia 48, Pitt 45 - UVa's seed gaining strength, Pitt definitely falling

Oregon St 71, UCLA 67 - Marginal road loss

Cincinnati 50, South Florida 45


USC Upstate 80, Mercer 61

Monday preview: 
Xavier at Villanova - X playing for a spot in the lockbox
Iowa St at Oklahoma St
Notre Dame at Syracuse
and some small school stuff to pay attention to that I don't feel like listing out.

Saturday, February 1, 2014

2/1 recap

Ohio St 59, Wisconsin 58 - one desperate team beats another.  Wisky is about to become an impossible situation to seed
Northwestern 55, Minnesota 54 - what are you doing?
Iowa 81, Illinois 74

Texas 81, Kansas 69 - first bit of equity KU gave away in the conference.  just don't do it again and they'll be fine for the 1 line
Iowa St 81, Oklahoma 75
Baylor 76, Oklahoma St 70 - go figure.  You tell me what to do with Baylor
West Virginia 81, Kansas St 71 - KSU, this conference is tough; don't waste a mulligan on this type of game

California 60, Arizona 58
Colorado 79, Utah 75 (OT)
Stanford 76, Arizona St 70
Washington St 72, Washington 67
Oregon 78, USC 66

Syracuse 91, Duke 89 (OT) - the 1 line might be out of Duke's reach now
Clemson 53, Florida St 49 - FSU now in some bubble trouble.  Clemson at least stays in the conversation another day
North Carolina 84, NC State 70
Maryland 80, Virginia Tech 60
Notre Dame 76, Boston College 73 (OT)
Georgia Tech 79, Wake Forest 70 - just a day after I was thinking of giving Wake a chance

Seton Hall 68, Xavier 60 - X giving a bit of equity away
Providence 77, DePaul 72 -  these guys are going to start showing up in some brackets
St John's 74, Marquette 59

Kentucky 84, Missouri 79 - golden chance by the boards for Mizzou, UK tightens up its seed
Florida 69, Texas A&M 36
Tennessee 76, Alabama 59
LSU 88, Arkansas 74
Ole Miss 75, South Carolina 71
Vanderbilt 55, Mississippi St 49

SMU 87, Memphis 72 - well, that's another quality home win.  development!
Louisville 87, UCF 70

St Joseph's 73, UMass 68 - ok, NOW UMass needs to worry
Dayton 75, George Washington 65 - GWU had some built up equity; and this isn't enough for Dayton
VCU 81, Richmond 70 - probably asking too much of Richmond, but they're just about out of chances
St Louis 87, George Mason 81 (OT)

San Diego St 65, Colorado St 56
New Mexico 72, San Jose St 47
UNLV 73, Boise St 69
Wyoming 74, Utah St 57

Gonzaga 75, San Francisco 65
BYU 84, St Mary's 71


Wichita St 81, Evansville 67
Indiana St 87, Northern Iowa 81

Ohio 95, Toledo 90 (OT) - Toledo would've had a legit at-large case with another top 100 road win, but alas.  Probably on the brink


why are we playing non-conference games in February?
Georgetown 64, Michigan St 60 - well, G'town still has a pulse.  MSU is losing the draft on the 1 line
Villanova 90, Temple 74

Small conference discussions:
Louisiana Tech 87, UTSA 72
Southern Miss 78, Tulane 47
Delaware 66, UNC-Wilmington 65 - 8-0 in the CAA
American 63, Holy Cross 57 - 10-0 in the Patriot
Stephen F Austin 76, Incarnate Word 74 - 9-0 in the Southland
Georgia St 101, Texas-Arlington 91 (OT) - 8-0 in the 'Belt
Central Connecticut St 74, Robert Morris 73 - first NEC loss
New Mexico St 72, Utah Valley 49 - first WAC loss
Denver 67, North Dakota St 63 - probably endgame for NDSU's bubble; and trail IPFW in the Summit
Harvard 80, Penn 50
Dartmouth 78, Princeton 69 (OT) - what?
Green Bay 62, Wright St 55
Tennessee Tech 81, Belmont 76


Sunday, everyone gets out of the way for the Superb Owl.  Limited action:
Michigan at Indiana - Indiana's latest last chance
Virginia at Pitt - oh hey a legit game!
UCLA at Oregon St
USF at Cincinnati