San Diego St 61, Kansas 57 - First things first. Signature win for SDSU, and now gives the MWC a fighting chance at a protected seed now. Now, for Kansas. How many more losses before their chance at the 1 line is gone? How many more losses before beating them is no longer considered a signature win? We're still a few losses away, but it's fair to ask now
Colorado 100, Oregon 91 - Colorado holds serve at home. Remember, this is their only meeting, so Colorado has the pecking order priority
Wisconsin 75, Iowa St - Wisky holds serve at home. Another pecking order game for now
Wake Forest 73, North Carolina 67 - You tell me what to do with teams that beat UNC, because I don't know, either
Villanova 91, Providence 61 - Bubble teams stay competitive in these games
Loyola (Chi) 89, Missouri St 57 - The MVC is quickly reducing to a WSU and Indiana St-only proposition
Your hold-serve portion of the recap:
UCLA 107, USC 73
Minnesota 82, Purdue 79
Michigan 74, Northwestern 51
Wichita St 67, Northern Iowa 53
Arizona St 66, Washington St 47
Last quiet Monday of the year coming up, as everyone gets out of the way of the national championship in that other sport. Maryland is at Pittsburgh. Iona at Quinnipiac in an early MAAC litmus test for both.
Sunday, January 5, 2014
Saturday, January 4, 2014
1/4 recap
Let's fire this off conference by conference.
American:
Louisville 83, Rutgers 76
SMU 74, UConn 65 - SMU cashes in a big opportunity. Step 1 towards an at-large bid
Cincinnati 69, Memphis 53 - Meanwhile, Cincy cashes in a big road win. Especially since it's on the road
UCF beat Temple and Houston beats USF. Not convinced either matters for now
ACC:
Notre Dame 79, Duke 77 - The first step towards profile rehab! Duke can't afford to take too many more body blows if they want a 1 seed
Virginia 62, Florida St 50 - Quality road win for Virginia. Is FSU closer to the bubble than we think?
Pittsburgh 74, NC State 62 - Road win
Clemson 62, Boston College 60 - Road win, barely. I'll keep a corner of my eye on Clemson for now
Syracuse 49, Miami 44
Maryland 77, Georgia Tech 61
A-Sun:
Mercer 62, USC Upstate 60 (OT) - First favorite beats second favorite at home
Big 12:
Kansas St 74, Oklahoma St 71 - Seems like OSU has bigger problems than worrying about a 1 seed at the moment. Early quality win at home for KSU. Expect Big 12 play to produce a lot of this, this season
Oklahoma 88, Texas 85 - Big road win for OU. This will be very useful in jockeying for bubble position within the Big 12
Iowa St 73, Texas Tech 62
West Virginia 74, TCU 69
BEast:
Xavier 79, Butler 68 - Bubble battle. Home team holds serve
Creighton 79, Seton Hall 66
Georgetown 77, St John's 60 - Both solid teams with solid wins. Creighton was a roadie
Marquette 66, DePaul 56
B1G:
Michigan St 73, Indiana 56 - Road win. More about avoiding losses that can hurt your 1 seed chances, and mission accomplished
Ohio St 84, Nebraska 53
Illinois 75, Penn St 55
Horizon: Green Bay wins. Milwaukee loses at home to Cleveland St (UW-M's record is a mirage). Wright St and Valpo lose on the road. Green Bay and CSU are probably the co-favorites now
Ivy: Harvard and Princeton both won layup games over Liberty and Rice. But they were road games, at least
MAAC: 3 undefeated MAAC teams after today: Manhattan, Canisius, and Iona
MVC:
Indiana St 81, Evansville 62 - Road win
Bradley 68, Drake 57 - Drake are paper tigers, don't be fooled
MW: The theme was hold-serve at home.
New Mexico 80, Colorado St 73 - held!
Utah St 86, San Jose St 67 - held!
Boise St 86, Fresno St 79 - held!
Air Force 75, UNLV 68 - break of service!
OVC: Belmont holds serve, EKU drops a roadie at SIUE
Pac-12:
Arizona 71, Washington 62
Utah 80, Oregon St 69
SoCon: special segment on them as Elon loses on the road. This conference could be a tire fire this season
SWAC: special segment for them too as presumed favorite Jackson St loses at home. Figures
WCC:
St Mary's 72, Portland 63 - Road win!
Gonzaga 86, Pacific 64 - Yeah, Pacific isn't ready for contention yet
BYU wins at home over San Diego (finally). San Fran > Pepperdine, S. Clara > LMU, both at home
Non-conference play of note:
Florida 67, Richmond 58
Dayton 83, Ole Miss 80 (OT) - It is a road win
Rhode Island 74, LSU 70 - whaaaaaaat? Here's my #4 SEC team losing at home
other teams like UMass squeezing in easy wins before conference play
Sunday preview:
Pay attention to the late games. Oregon at Colorado and Iowa at Wisconsin are quality. Is Providence for real (on the road at Villanova)? UNC has to play at Wake, and they're capable of blowing up.
American:
Louisville 83, Rutgers 76
SMU 74, UConn 65 - SMU cashes in a big opportunity. Step 1 towards an at-large bid
Cincinnati 69, Memphis 53 - Meanwhile, Cincy cashes in a big road win. Especially since it's on the road
UCF beat Temple and Houston beats USF. Not convinced either matters for now
ACC:
Notre Dame 79, Duke 77 - The first step towards profile rehab! Duke can't afford to take too many more body blows if they want a 1 seed
Virginia 62, Florida St 50 - Quality road win for Virginia. Is FSU closer to the bubble than we think?
Pittsburgh 74, NC State 62 - Road win
Clemson 62, Boston College 60 - Road win, barely. I'll keep a corner of my eye on Clemson for now
Syracuse 49, Miami 44
Maryland 77, Georgia Tech 61
A-Sun:
Mercer 62, USC Upstate 60 (OT) - First favorite beats second favorite at home
Big 12:
Kansas St 74, Oklahoma St 71 - Seems like OSU has bigger problems than worrying about a 1 seed at the moment. Early quality win at home for KSU. Expect Big 12 play to produce a lot of this, this season
Oklahoma 88, Texas 85 - Big road win for OU. This will be very useful in jockeying for bubble position within the Big 12
Iowa St 73, Texas Tech 62
West Virginia 74, TCU 69
BEast:
Xavier 79, Butler 68 - Bubble battle. Home team holds serve
Creighton 79, Seton Hall 66
Georgetown 77, St John's 60 - Both solid teams with solid wins. Creighton was a roadie
Marquette 66, DePaul 56
B1G:
Michigan St 73, Indiana 56 - Road win. More about avoiding losses that can hurt your 1 seed chances, and mission accomplished
Ohio St 84, Nebraska 53
Illinois 75, Penn St 55
Horizon: Green Bay wins. Milwaukee loses at home to Cleveland St (UW-M's record is a mirage). Wright St and Valpo lose on the road. Green Bay and CSU are probably the co-favorites now
Ivy: Harvard and Princeton both won layup games over Liberty and Rice. But they were road games, at least
MAAC: 3 undefeated MAAC teams after today: Manhattan, Canisius, and Iona
MVC:
Indiana St 81, Evansville 62 - Road win
Bradley 68, Drake 57 - Drake are paper tigers, don't be fooled
MW: The theme was hold-serve at home.
New Mexico 80, Colorado St 73 - held!
Utah St 86, San Jose St 67 - held!
Boise St 86, Fresno St 79 - held!
Air Force 75, UNLV 68 - break of service!
OVC: Belmont holds serve, EKU drops a roadie at SIUE
Pac-12:
Arizona 71, Washington 62
Utah 80, Oregon St 69
SoCon: special segment on them as Elon loses on the road. This conference could be a tire fire this season
SWAC: special segment for them too as presumed favorite Jackson St loses at home. Figures
WCC:
St Mary's 72, Portland 63 - Road win!
Gonzaga 86, Pacific 64 - Yeah, Pacific isn't ready for contention yet
BYU wins at home over San Diego (finally). San Fran > Pepperdine, S. Clara > LMU, both at home
Non-conference play of note:
Florida 67, Richmond 58
Dayton 83, Ole Miss 80 (OT) - It is a road win
Rhode Island 74, LSU 70 - whaaaaaaat? Here's my #4 SEC team losing at home
other teams like UMass squeezing in easy wins before conference play
Sunday preview:
Pay attention to the late games. Oregon at Colorado and Iowa at Wisconsin are quality. Is Providence for real (on the road at Villanova)? UNC has to play at Wake, and they're capable of blowing up.
Conference schedule imbalances, part 1
This post is here to serve as a handy primer to conference schedules. Most conferences have imbalanced schedules because they're so frickin' huge now. This post will just cover the top 7 traditional power conferences. (we'll cover other conferences later, maybe).
Pac-12:
12 teams, 18 conference games
Each team plays 7 teams twice, 4 teams once
1) Arizona as the premier team, only gets UCLA once, on the road. They will play all other relevant teams twice. This means extra signature win chances everywhere for the bubble teams. This also means Arizona's chance at a #1 seed beefens up a bit.
2) Oregon and Colorado are arguably the #2 and #3 teams. But they meet only once, and it's right away - it's tomorrow, in Boulder.
3) Oregon also misses a trip to northern California for the Cal/Stanford trip. That's a blow to Cal/Stanford both, as they figure to be bubble teams, and will miss a quality win chance at home.
4) In another blow to Cal/Stanford, they get Colorado only once as well. However, these will be home games on the final weekend of the year for both. So there will be a late quality win chance for both.
Here's a complete breakdown (made easier to list because of the neat scheduling format in the Pac 12):
Arizonas: no Washington trip, no L.A. homestand
L.A.: no Arizona trip, no Washington homestand
Washingtons: no L.A. trip, no Arizona homestand
northern Cal: no Utah/Colorado trip, no Oregon homestand
Oregons: no northern Cal trip, no Utah/Colorado homestand
Utah/Colorado: no Oregon trip, no northern Cal homestand
B1G:
12 teams, 18 conference games
Each team plays 7 teams twice, 4 teams once
1) Wisconsin only gets Ohio St and Michigan St once. That's actually a problem if you want to compete for a 1 seed. However, it's a positive if you just care about getting a top 4 seed. Make sense? Anyways, they're both home games for Wisky too. Better win at least one if you want a top 1 seed. Also hilariously, the two home games Wisky misses this year? Penn St and Nebraska. Well played.
2) Ohio St/Michigan only happens once this season? Ohio St gets to host the single matchup. This might actually help Michigan as there's no risk of absorbing a marginal home loss to OSU, since Michigan already has enough losses.
3) Indiana is another team that doesn't get to host Ohio St this year. More critical for Indiana as they need quality win chances.
4) As for another bubble team, Minnesota, they don't get to host Michigan St this year.
5) Iowa's schedule is a bit loaded. They get each of the Big 3 (MSU, OSU, Wisky) twice. They get the 3 bubble teams 5 times (missing a home game against Indiana, playing Minny and Illinois 2x). Their other 1x's are Penn St, Purdue, and Nebraska. This means Iowa can absorb a lot of losses and be fine. Don't panic if they lose 8 times in the B1G and end up with a 4 or 5 need. It's natural. Don't punish them too much.
ACC:
15 teams, 18 conference games
Each team plays 4 teams twice, 10 teams once
1) Obviously, in this conference, the bigger news is whether you get the road or home version for each team, and who you get to play twice. Among the top 3 (Duke, UNC, Syracuse), the skipped game will be UNC at Syracuse. Yes, this means Duke gets both Syracuse and UNC twice. The spoiled get spoiled more.
2) Let's look at bubble teams, one by one then. Pitt gets Syracuse twice, Duke at home, UNC on the road. Florida St and Virginia at home only. They will need to make hay against this schedule.
3) Virginia has a marginal schedule. Each of the big 3 only once. They do get Florida St twice, which will go a long way towards sorting the bubble.
4) Florida St is another team that only gets the big 3 a total of three times.
5) Notre Dame needs help, and they get it. UNC twice. Duke only at home. Virginia twice. They're the bubble team with the most help available.
6) I'll stop the analysis here, because the bubble is pretty big in the ACC. Tough to know who exactly got the breaks until we see.
SEC:
14 teams, 18 conference games
Each team plays 5 teams twice, 8 teams once
1) With a plurality of bubble teams, the key is who gets Kentucky and Florida in favorable situations. (UK and UF play twice, by the way) LSU is a team that gets a home-and-home with Kentucky. Ole Miss and Arkansas are others.
2) As for Florida's distribution, they don't spread around nearly as much. Tennessee gets them twice, but the others that do aren't probably going to be relevant in February and March. Florida has an easier schedule than Kentucky, so file that away in your brain in case Florida wins the SEC. LSU doesn't get Florida at home. Missouri doesn't get Florida at home either. Two of the 3 toughest road trips are missed.
3) Missouri only gets UK and UF once apiece, but at least the Kentucky chance is at home. Arkansas/Missouri could be a very relevant home-and-home. Tennessee also gets Mizzou twice.
Big 12, American, Big East
Home-and-homes for everyone! Yay!
Pac-12:
12 teams, 18 conference games
Each team plays 7 teams twice, 4 teams once
1) Arizona as the premier team, only gets UCLA once, on the road. They will play all other relevant teams twice. This means extra signature win chances everywhere for the bubble teams. This also means Arizona's chance at a #1 seed beefens up a bit.
2) Oregon and Colorado are arguably the #2 and #3 teams. But they meet only once, and it's right away - it's tomorrow, in Boulder.
3) Oregon also misses a trip to northern California for the Cal/Stanford trip. That's a blow to Cal/Stanford both, as they figure to be bubble teams, and will miss a quality win chance at home.
4) In another blow to Cal/Stanford, they get Colorado only once as well. However, these will be home games on the final weekend of the year for both. So there will be a late quality win chance for both.
Here's a complete breakdown (made easier to list because of the neat scheduling format in the Pac 12):
Arizonas: no Washington trip, no L.A. homestand
L.A.: no Arizona trip, no Washington homestand
Washingtons: no L.A. trip, no Arizona homestand
northern Cal: no Utah/Colorado trip, no Oregon homestand
Oregons: no northern Cal trip, no Utah/Colorado homestand
Utah/Colorado: no Oregon trip, no northern Cal homestand
B1G:
12 teams, 18 conference games
Each team plays 7 teams twice, 4 teams once
1) Wisconsin only gets Ohio St and Michigan St once. That's actually a problem if you want to compete for a 1 seed. However, it's a positive if you just care about getting a top 4 seed. Make sense? Anyways, they're both home games for Wisky too. Better win at least one if you want a top 1 seed. Also hilariously, the two home games Wisky misses this year? Penn St and Nebraska. Well played.
2) Ohio St/Michigan only happens once this season? Ohio St gets to host the single matchup. This might actually help Michigan as there's no risk of absorbing a marginal home loss to OSU, since Michigan already has enough losses.
3) Indiana is another team that doesn't get to host Ohio St this year. More critical for Indiana as they need quality win chances.
4) As for another bubble team, Minnesota, they don't get to host Michigan St this year.
5) Iowa's schedule is a bit loaded. They get each of the Big 3 (MSU, OSU, Wisky) twice. They get the 3 bubble teams 5 times (missing a home game against Indiana, playing Minny and Illinois 2x). Their other 1x's are Penn St, Purdue, and Nebraska. This means Iowa can absorb a lot of losses and be fine. Don't panic if they lose 8 times in the B1G and end up with a 4 or 5 need. It's natural. Don't punish them too much.
ACC:
15 teams, 18 conference games
Each team plays 4 teams twice, 10 teams once
1) Obviously, in this conference, the bigger news is whether you get the road or home version for each team, and who you get to play twice. Among the top 3 (Duke, UNC, Syracuse), the skipped game will be UNC at Syracuse. Yes, this means Duke gets both Syracuse and UNC twice. The spoiled get spoiled more.
2) Let's look at bubble teams, one by one then. Pitt gets Syracuse twice, Duke at home, UNC on the road. Florida St and Virginia at home only. They will need to make hay against this schedule.
3) Virginia has a marginal schedule. Each of the big 3 only once. They do get Florida St twice, which will go a long way towards sorting the bubble.
4) Florida St is another team that only gets the big 3 a total of three times.
5) Notre Dame needs help, and they get it. UNC twice. Duke only at home. Virginia twice. They're the bubble team with the most help available.
6) I'll stop the analysis here, because the bubble is pretty big in the ACC. Tough to know who exactly got the breaks until we see.
SEC:
14 teams, 18 conference games
Each team plays 5 teams twice, 8 teams once
1) With a plurality of bubble teams, the key is who gets Kentucky and Florida in favorable situations. (UK and UF play twice, by the way) LSU is a team that gets a home-and-home with Kentucky. Ole Miss and Arkansas are others.
2) As for Florida's distribution, they don't spread around nearly as much. Tennessee gets them twice, but the others that do aren't probably going to be relevant in February and March. Florida has an easier schedule than Kentucky, so file that away in your brain in case Florida wins the SEC. LSU doesn't get Florida at home. Missouri doesn't get Florida at home either. Two of the 3 toughest road trips are missed.
3) Missouri only gets UK and UF once apiece, but at least the Kentucky chance is at home. Arkansas/Missouri could be a very relevant home-and-home. Tennessee also gets Mizzou twice.
Big 12, American, Big East
Home-and-homes for everyone! Yay!
Friday, January 3, 2014
1/3 recap
George Washington 73, Georgia 55
Southern Miss 66, Drexel 49
VCU 81, Stony Brook 63
Hawaii 77, Omaha 73
Saturday update:
Our first mega-full weekend of the year. Conference play everywhere. We'll cherry pick the best games:
Cincinnati at Memphis - probably too much of an ask for Cincy, but they need quality wins
Pitt at NC State - early road chance for Pitt
UConn at SMU - it's getting late early for SMU
Michigan St at Indiana - here's one way to erase a road loss to Illinois quickly
Butler at Xavier - your stock bubble game
Oklahoma St at Kansas St - this would leap KSU right back into the bubble
Duke at Notre Dame - ditto for ND
Virginia at Florida St - FSU, teams in your position usually hold serve here
Oklahoma at Texas - stock bubble game
Dayton at Ole Miss - winner gets to stick around the bubble for awhile
Southern Miss 66, Drexel 49
VCU 81, Stony Brook 63
Hawaii 77, Omaha 73
Saturday update:
Our first mega-full weekend of the year. Conference play everywhere. We'll cherry pick the best games:
Cincinnati at Memphis - probably too much of an ask for Cincy, but they need quality wins
Pitt at NC State - early road chance for Pitt
UConn at SMU - it's getting late early for SMU
Michigan St at Indiana - here's one way to erase a road loss to Illinois quickly
Butler at Xavier - your stock bubble game
Oklahoma St at Kansas St - this would leap KSU right back into the bubble
Duke at Notre Dame - ditto for ND
Virginia at Florida St - FSU, teams in your position usually hold serve here
Oklahoma at Texas - stock bubble game
Dayton at Ole Miss - winner gets to stick around the bubble for awhile
1/2 recap
B1G:
Wisconsin 76, Northwestern 49
Michigan 63, Minnesota 60 - road win for Michigan. Minny will eventually need to pick a couple of these off at home
Pac-12:
Oregon 70, Utah 68 (OT) - road win
Washington 76, Arizona St 65 - oh no, bad home loss for ASU
California 69, Stanford 62 - road win. Early bubble advantage to Cal
Colorado 64, Oregon St 58
Arizona 60, Washington St 25 - wait, what?
elsewhere:
Wichita St 82, Southern Illinois 67
Missouri St 78, Illinois St 70 (OT)
Gonzaga 73, St Mary's 51
San Francisco 75, Loyola Marymount 61
Portland 72, Pacific 64 - these 3 show how tough it is to win on the road...
Pepperdine 70, Santa Clara 61 - road win
In the Horizon, your favorites (Green Bay, Valpo, Wright St) all won. Belmont and EKU held serve in the OVC.
Light but meaningful Friday:
Nebraska-Omaha at Hawaii - prove-it game for both
Drexel at Southern Miss - both teams a fair bit away from the bubble. winner gets to dream a bit more
Stony Brook at VCU - litmus test for the A-East
Georgia at George Washington - simply a must-win for GWU
Wisconsin 76, Northwestern 49
Michigan 63, Minnesota 60 - road win for Michigan. Minny will eventually need to pick a couple of these off at home
Pac-12:
Oregon 70, Utah 68 (OT) - road win
Washington 76, Arizona St 65 - oh no, bad home loss for ASU
California 69, Stanford 62 - road win. Early bubble advantage to Cal
Colorado 64, Oregon St 58
Arizona 60, Washington St 25 - wait, what?
elsewhere:
Wichita St 82, Southern Illinois 67
Missouri St 78, Illinois St 70 (OT)
Gonzaga 73, St Mary's 51
San Francisco 75, Loyola Marymount 61
Portland 72, Pacific 64 - these 3 show how tough it is to win on the road...
Pepperdine 70, Santa Clara 61 - road win
In the Horizon, your favorites (Green Bay, Valpo, Wright St) all won. Belmont and EKU held serve in the OVC.
Light but meaningful Friday:
Nebraska-Omaha at Hawaii - prove-it game for both
Drexel at Southern Miss - both teams a fair bit away from the bubble. winner gets to dream a bit more
Stony Brook at VCU - litmus test for the A-East
Georgia at George Washington - simply a must-win for GWU
Thursday, January 2, 2014
RPI/SoS outliers
Now that it's January, we can start to look at the RPI and SoS numbers and not be deceived completely by them. The numbers will still change rapidly, but everyone now has a non-con base around which the numbers are formed.
Let's see which RPIs and SoSs are much higher or lower than you think, and if any team should celebrate or panic about it. This isn't a comprehensive list by any means, but should highlight points of interest:
UC Santa Barbara (RPI 27, SoS 26) - They went 7-4 in the non-con against a schedule that features only one team expected to be below RPI 200. They went 2-3 against teams ranked 51-100 in the RPI right now, and have played 6 road games along with 2 neutrals. All of this adds up to a computer profile that's better than the actual team. This will dip a bit, so I don't expect any at-large hopes, but the seeding will look good on Selection Sunday if they get there.
North Dakota St (RPI 28, SoS 38) - A similar situation to UCSB. Avoidance of bad teams plus 8 road games. The bad news is that their quality win at Notre Dame is evaporating into little more than a paperweight. The hidden downside to getting the surprise signature road win is that many times, the signature fades. The home loss at Southern Miss is costly, as well as at North Dakota, even though it's a rivalry game. The RPI and SoS won't hold.
UMass (RPI 2, SoS 5) - The RPI isn't much a surprise, given the great 11-1 record, but a top 5 SoS? And the A-10 will hurt it, but not THAT much. How did they manage it? Again, great cupcake avoidance - the only really bad team is Northern Illinois. (they still do have Miami(OH) and Elon on the non-con slate to come). But the MAC scheduling agreement actually helped them this year - they got quality road games at Ohio and EMU - and got them both. Neutral wins over New Mexico and Clemson. They do lack the signature win (New Mexico and BYU have faded, LSU isn't there yet, they lost to Florida St), but that's ok. They have too many good wins. Now the question is how high a seed they can get. Games against VCU and St Louis will determine the ceiling, while the other easier games determine the floor.
Indiana (RPI 89, SoS 135) - And a non-con SoS hovering around 200. This is a dire situation. No quality wins. They'll have plenty of chances, but don't be fooled on name alone. I do think they get the quality wins eventually, but it'll take work. I do think 9-9 in the B1G would be enough.
Michigan (RPI 75, SoS 78) - Here's a B1G outlier that's more surprising. However, the numbers will jump up because of the strength of the B1G (same for Indiana, by the way), and they do have neutral court wins over Stanford and Florida St in their hip pocket. They also have a couple of anchors in the non-con SoS that B1G play will mostly erase. They'll be fine.
Teams with better non-con SoSs than you think:
BYU (3) is going downhill fast, but if they ever correct themselves, they will have profile support.
New Mexico St (49) is making sure WAC play won't be a death knell to their seed.
South Carolina (19) is only .500, but could be a darkhorse in the weak SEC given their tough start.
Problematic non-con SoSs:
Wichita St (108) will be fine as long as they keep winning, but their opponents are struggling.
Louisville (102) has enough of a hard time already, but this combined with the AAC makes is really, really tough to get a top 2 seed.
Cincinnati (158) has the same AAC problem, and has a weak SoS for a presumed bubble team.
SMU (209) really, really has a problem.
Ohio St (83), Duke (75), and Arizona (73) don't have bad SoSs, per se, but the competition on the 1 line will be fierce. Kansas, Wisconsin, Syracuse, Villanova, Kentucky, and UNC are in the top 30, and that's not an insignificant advantage to have. It is worth noting all 3 are projected to gain strength in the SoS, and the numbers will improve, but the position relative to other top teams won't.
Need evidence the Valley is failing? Indiana St (240) and Missouri St (252).
Let's see which RPIs and SoSs are much higher or lower than you think, and if any team should celebrate or panic about it. This isn't a comprehensive list by any means, but should highlight points of interest:
UC Santa Barbara (RPI 27, SoS 26) - They went 7-4 in the non-con against a schedule that features only one team expected to be below RPI 200. They went 2-3 against teams ranked 51-100 in the RPI right now, and have played 6 road games along with 2 neutrals. All of this adds up to a computer profile that's better than the actual team. This will dip a bit, so I don't expect any at-large hopes, but the seeding will look good on Selection Sunday if they get there.
North Dakota St (RPI 28, SoS 38) - A similar situation to UCSB. Avoidance of bad teams plus 8 road games. The bad news is that their quality win at Notre Dame is evaporating into little more than a paperweight. The hidden downside to getting the surprise signature road win is that many times, the signature fades. The home loss at Southern Miss is costly, as well as at North Dakota, even though it's a rivalry game. The RPI and SoS won't hold.
UMass (RPI 2, SoS 5) - The RPI isn't much a surprise, given the great 11-1 record, but a top 5 SoS? And the A-10 will hurt it, but not THAT much. How did they manage it? Again, great cupcake avoidance - the only really bad team is Northern Illinois. (they still do have Miami(OH) and Elon on the non-con slate to come). But the MAC scheduling agreement actually helped them this year - they got quality road games at Ohio and EMU - and got them both. Neutral wins over New Mexico and Clemson. They do lack the signature win (New Mexico and BYU have faded, LSU isn't there yet, they lost to Florida St), but that's ok. They have too many good wins. Now the question is how high a seed they can get. Games against VCU and St Louis will determine the ceiling, while the other easier games determine the floor.
Indiana (RPI 89, SoS 135) - And a non-con SoS hovering around 200. This is a dire situation. No quality wins. They'll have plenty of chances, but don't be fooled on name alone. I do think they get the quality wins eventually, but it'll take work. I do think 9-9 in the B1G would be enough.
Michigan (RPI 75, SoS 78) - Here's a B1G outlier that's more surprising. However, the numbers will jump up because of the strength of the B1G (same for Indiana, by the way), and they do have neutral court wins over Stanford and Florida St in their hip pocket. They also have a couple of anchors in the non-con SoS that B1G play will mostly erase. They'll be fine.
Teams with better non-con SoSs than you think:
BYU (3) is going downhill fast, but if they ever correct themselves, they will have profile support.
New Mexico St (49) is making sure WAC play won't be a death knell to their seed.
South Carolina (19) is only .500, but could be a darkhorse in the weak SEC given their tough start.
Problematic non-con SoSs:
Wichita St (108) will be fine as long as they keep winning, but their opponents are struggling.
Louisville (102) has enough of a hard time already, but this combined with the AAC makes is really, really tough to get a top 2 seed.
Cincinnati (158) has the same AAC problem, and has a weak SoS for a presumed bubble team.
SMU (209) really, really has a problem.
Ohio St (83), Duke (75), and Arizona (73) don't have bad SoSs, per se, but the competition on the 1 line will be fierce. Kansas, Wisconsin, Syracuse, Villanova, Kentucky, and UNC are in the top 30, and that's not an insignificant advantage to have. It is worth noting all 3 are projected to gain strength in the SoS, and the numbers will improve, but the position relative to other top teams won't.
Need evidence the Valley is failing? Indiana St (240) and Missouri St (252).
Wednesday, January 1, 2014
1/1 recap
Mountain West:
SDSU 71, Colorado St 61 - hold serve
UNLV 75, Fresno St 62 - hold serve
Air Force 73, Utah St 72 - break of serve! Seriously, not the type of loss you want on the resume
and Nevada beat SJSU in a game no one should care about
MVC:
Indiana St 70, Loyola (Chi) 58
Northern Iowa 80, Bradley 46
Drake 94, Evansville 66 - well, at least the right teams won on day 1
American:
Cincinnati 65, SMU 57 - early chance by the boards for SMU. They'll ultimately be judged by their 8 games against teams ahead of them. 0-1 to start
Rutgers 71, Temple 66 - Temple is not good
North Florida 89, Mercer 83 - a pretty significant upset early in the A-Sun season
Harvard 73, Boston College 58 - these cupcakes are just gonna hurt Harvard, you know
Thursday preview:
We have many mid-majors cluttering the schedule. Weeding through, we find:
Michigan at Minnesota - an early prove-it game for both teams
St Mary's at Gonzaga - St Mary's can rally into the at-large picture in a hurry here. Pacific and LMU are on the road to inferior competition, by the way
California at Stanford is the bubble game of note in the Pac-12. Arizona and Colorado have hold-serve games at home, while Oregon has to go to Utah
Wichita St on the road at SIU. Manhattan on the road at St Peter's. etc etc
SDSU 71, Colorado St 61 - hold serve
UNLV 75, Fresno St 62 - hold serve
Air Force 73, Utah St 72 - break of serve! Seriously, not the type of loss you want on the resume
and Nevada beat SJSU in a game no one should care about
MVC:
Indiana St 70, Loyola (Chi) 58
Northern Iowa 80, Bradley 46
Drake 94, Evansville 66 - well, at least the right teams won on day 1
American:
Cincinnati 65, SMU 57 - early chance by the boards for SMU. They'll ultimately be judged by their 8 games against teams ahead of them. 0-1 to start
Rutgers 71, Temple 66 - Temple is not good
North Florida 89, Mercer 83 - a pretty significant upset early in the A-Sun season
Harvard 73, Boston College 58 - these cupcakes are just gonna hurt Harvard, you know
Thursday preview:
We have many mid-majors cluttering the schedule. Weeding through, we find:
Michigan at Minnesota - an early prove-it game for both teams
St Mary's at Gonzaga - St Mary's can rally into the at-large picture in a hurry here. Pacific and LMU are on the road to inferior competition, by the way
California at Stanford is the bubble game of note in the Pac-12. Arizona and Colorado have hold-serve games at home, while Oregon has to go to Utah
Wichita St on the road at SIU. Manhattan on the road at St Peter's. etc etc
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