Monday, January 23, 2017

Bubble watch, part VIII: everyone else

These are quickie profiles and writeups you can use in your evaluations.  Don’t expect eloquent thoughts, they’re just quick-hitters.

WCC

Lockbox:

Gonzaga (19-0) (7-0) RPI 10 SoS 66
Vital signs:  8-0 R/N, non-con SoS 45, 4-0 vs. Top 50, 7-0 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  N-Florida, N-Iowa St, N-Arizona, St Mary’s
Bad losses:  nope
Only question is if they lose and if they can get to the 1 line.  Need help to get there, IMO.  Arizona winning the Pac-12 would help, too.

St Mary’s (17-2) (7-1) RPI 24 SoS 81
Vital signs:  6-1 R/N, non-con SoS 96, 2-1 vs. Top 50, 4-2 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  @Dayton
Bad losses:  UTA at home isn’t great
Those other top 100 wins?  There’s a Nevada in there, and a Stanford.  Meh.  But they did schedule okay, do have the road win at Dayton, and will be fine with no bad losses.

NIT Watch:
BYU (15-6) (6-2) RPI 99 SoS 157
San Francisco (13-7) (4-4) RPI 104 SoS 115 – but there’s a reasonable chance neither of these teams make the NIT.

Mountain West

Bubble:

Nevada (16-4) (5-2) RPI 44 SoS 110
Vital signs:  8-3 R/N, non-con SoS 150, 0-1 vs. Top 50, 2-3 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  SDSU, @UNM
Bad losses:  N-Iona, twice to Fresno?
Token listing as the MWC leader.  This isn’t happening.

NIT Watch:
Boise St (11-6) (5-2) RPI 85 SoS 121
Fresno St (11-7) (5-3) RPI 92 SoS 131
New Mexico (12-8) (5-3) RPI 83 SoS 60
San Diego St (10-7) (3-3) RPI 89 SoS 80 – and none of these teams will probably make it.  Or one will if they can separate from the rest.  Jeez.

MVC:

Bubble:

Illinois St (15-4) (8-0) RPI 29 SoS 83
Vital signs:  6-4 R/N, non-con SoS 49, 0-1 vs. Top 50, 2-1 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  Wichita, New Mexico?
Bad losses:  N-San Francisco, @Tulsa
No.  There’s nothing good here.  The SoS is a product of bad team avoidance and 6 wins in the 100-150 range.

Wichita St (16-4) (7-1) RPI 78 SoS 188
Vital signs:  6-3 R/N, non-con SoS 206, 0-3 vs. Top 50, 0-4 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  Tulsa!  @Oklahoma!
Bad losses:  Ok State at home
Man, that SoS collapsed on itself.  I just don’t see an argument here that can be made.

NIT Watch:
Missouri St (13-7) (5-3) RPI 144 SoS 242 – no.
Loyola(Chi) (12-7) (4-4) RPI 126 SoS 183 – no.

Everyone else:

Bubble:

UNC-Wilmington (17-2) (8-0) RPI 26 SoS 142
Vital signs:  10-2 R/N, non-con SoS 118, 0-2 vs. Top 50, 2-2 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  @Charleston?  @Bonaventure?
Bad losses:  I suppose @Clemson
I’ll give them a look as the road/neutral numbers are big and the SoS isn’t a killer and the CAA won’t sink them.  Going to be tough without any win of value, though.

Middle Tennessee (16-3) (7-0) RPI 35 SoS 99
Vital signs:  10-1 R/N, non-con SoS 23, 2-1 vs. Top 50, 5-1 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  N-UNC-W, @Ole Miss, Vandy?
Bad losses:  Tennessee St, Georgia St
Man, those two losses are killer.  Good non-con SoS, but there’s juuuust enough damage here to make a bid unlikely.

NIT Watch:
Charleston (15-5) (7-1) RPI 66 SoS 108 – I can see 2nd place in the CAA being rewarded with a NIT bid, if the RPI is this shiny.
Texas-Arlington (12-5) (4-2) RPI 56 SoS 164 – win at St Mary’s has some juice, but not much behind it.
Arkansas St (12-6) (4-2) RPI 74 SoS 159 – beat G’town and Chattanooga, so there’s faint NIT hope.
Chattanooga (13-4) (6-1) RPI 63 SoS 178 – probably optimistic to list them.
Monmouth (16-5) (8-2) RPI 57 SoS 150 – not the same resume as last year.
Akron (15-3) (6-0) RPI 40 SoS 154 – signature win is Ga Southern, so don’t get carried away with the RPI.
Valparaiso (15-4) (6-1) RPI 62 SoS 146 – URI win is okay, just wish Alabama and BYU were better wins than what they are.

New Mexico St (16-2) (5-0) RPI 55 SoS 256 – how is the RPI so good with that SoS?

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