1/30 recap

Duke 84, @Notre Dame 74 - useful win for seed purposes, but I'm not overreacting to either team's seed based on this game
Oklahoma St 68, @Oklahoma 66 - road wins are never trivial

Other than this, just your usual mid-major hodgepodge on this day.  UT-Arlington lost, which might impact the NIT bubble.  And New Mexico St is out here playing non D1s in January.  Someone rescue them from the WAC.

1/30 BRACKET

Only real issue is sending a PIG winner to Sacramento, but odds are a better site will be available in March.  Relatively balanced bracket this time around, with the right teams in the right spots on the 3/4 lines.  Odds are it won't work out this well in March.

EAST 34
@Buffalo
1) Villanova (20-2) vs. 16) Mount St Mary's (11-12)/Morgan St (8-11)
8) Virginia Tech (16-5) vs. 9) Indiana (14-8)
@Sacramento
4) Oregon (18-3) vs. 13) New Mexico St (18-2)
5) St Mary's (19-2) vs. 12) Nevada (18-4)
@Buffalo
3) West Virginia (17-4) vs. 14) Belmont (15-4)
6) Florida (16-5) vs. 11) North Carolina St (14-8)/Wake Forest (12-9)
@Greenville
2) North Carolina (18-4) vs. 15) Furman (15-5)
7) Xavier (15-6) vs. 10) VCU (16-5)

WEST 36
@Salt Lake City
1) Gonzaga (22-0) vs. 16) Sam Houston St (12-6)
8) Dayton (14-5) vs. 9) Iowa St (13-7)
@Orlando
4) Butler (18-4) vs. 13) Vermont (17-5)
5) Duke (16-5) vs. 12) UNC-Wilmington (18-3)
@Salt Lake City
3) Arizona (20-2) vs. 14) North Dakota St (13-6)
6) SMU (18-4) vs. 11) Michigan St (13-9)
@Greenville
2) Virginia (16-4) vs. 15) Bucknell (17-6)
7) USC (18-4) vs. 10) Minnesota (15-7)

MIDWEST 33
@Tulsa
1) Kansas (19-2) vs. 16) Texas Southern (11-10)
8) Miami (14-6) vs. 9) Marquette (14-7)
@Milwaukee
4) Wisconsin (18-3) vs. 13) Valparaiso (17-4)
5) Notre Dame (17-5) vs. 12) Akron (17-3)
@Sacramento
3) UCLA (19-3) vs. 14) Princeton (9-6)
6) Creighton (18-3) vs. 11) Georgia Tech (13-8)/Clemson (12-8)
@Indianapolis
2) Louisville (18-4) vs. 15) Winthrop (14-5)
7) Northwestern (18-4) vs. 10) California (15-6)

SOUTH 33
@Tulsa
1) Baylor (19-1) vs. 16) Weber St (9-7)/UC-Davis (11-8)
8) Arkansas (16-5) vs. 9) Middle Tennessee (18-3)
@Milwaukee
4) Cincinnati (19-2) vs. 13) Monmouth (17-5)
5) Maryland (18-2) vs. 12) Richmond (13-8)
@Orlando
3) Florida St (18-4) vs. 14) Georgia Southern (12-7)
6) South Carolina (16-4) vs. 11) Illinois St (17-4)
@Indianapolis
2) Kentucky (17-4) vs. 15) FGCU (14-6)
7) Purdue (17-5) vs. 10) Kansas St (15-6)

1/30 S-CURVE

The 1 line:  Villanova (20-2), Baylor (19-1), Kansas (19-2), Gonzaga (22-0)
The 2 line:  Louisville (18-4), Kentucky (17-4), North Carolina (18-4), Virginia (16-4)
The 3 line:  Arizona (20-2), West Virginia (17-4), UCLA (19-3), Florida St (18-4)
The 4 line:  Cincinnati (19-2), Wisconsin (18-3), Butler (18-4), Oregon (18-3)
The 5 line:  Maryland (18-2), Notre Dame (17-5), Duke (16-5), St Mary's (19-2)
The 6 line:  Florida (16-5), South Carolina (16-4), SMU (18-4), Creighton (18-3)
The 7 line:  Purdue (17-5), Northwestern (18-4), Xavier (15-6), USC (18-4)
The 8 line:  Virginia Tech (16-5), Miami (14-6), Arkansas (16-5), Dayton (14-5)
The 9 line:  Iowa St (13-7), Indiana (14-8), Middle Tennessee (18-3), Marquette (14-7)
The 10 line:  Minnesota (15-7), Kansas St (15-6), VCU (16-5), California (15-6)
The 11 line:  Michigan St (13-9), Georgia Tech (13-8), North Carolina St (14-8), Wake Forest (12-9), Clemson (12-8), Illinois St (17-4)
The 12 line:  Nevada (18-4), UNC-Wilmington (18-3), Akron (17-3), Richmond (13-8)
The 13 line:  Valparaiso (17-4), New Mexico St (18-2), Monmouth (17-5), Vermont (17-5)
The 14 line:  North Dakota St (13-6), Belmont (15-4), Georgia Southern (12-7), Princeton (9-6)
The 15 line:  Bucknell (17-6), Furman (15-5), FGCU (14-6), Winthrop (14-5)
The 16 line:  Texas Southern (11-10), Sam Houston St (12-6), Weber St (9-7), UC-Davis (11-8), Mount St Mary's (11-12), Morgan St (8-11)

Next 4 in:
Kansas St
VCU
California
Michigan St

Last 4 in:
Georgia Tech
North Carolina St
Wake Forest
Clemson

Last 4 out:
TCU (13-7)
Seton Hall (13-7)
Michigan (14-8)
Wichita St (18-4)

Next 4 out:
Oklahoma St (12-8)
Alabama (13-7)
Pittsburgh (12-9)
Illinois (12-9)

NIT seeds:
The 3 line:  Syracuse (13-9), Texas Tech (15-6), Georgia (12-8), Rhode Island (13-7)
The 4 line:  Utah (13-6), Auburn (14-7), Memphis (16-6), Ohio St (13-9)
The 5 line:  Tennessee (11-9), Houston (15-7), Providence (14-9), Texas-Arlington (14-5)
The 6 line:  Ole Miss (12-9), Georgetown (12-10), Penn St (12-10), Boise St (12-7)
The 7 line:  Charleston (16-6), Stanford (10-10), Mississippi St (13-7), Tulsa (12-8)
The 8 line:  New Mexico (13-9), Arkansas St (14-6), East Tennessee St (15-5), LaSalle (11-8)

Break it down!:
ACC 12
B1G 7
Big 12 5
Big East 5
Pac-12 5
SEC 4
A-10 3
AAC 2
WCC 2

1/29 recap

non-con:
@Villanova 61, Virginia 59 - ultimately, a win that consolidates Nova's power over the 1 line.  No real harm to UVa

ACC:
@Louisville 85, NC State 60
@Virginia Tech 85, Boston College 79

Big East:
Xavier 82, @St John's 77

Pac-12:
@Arizona 77, Washington 66
Washington St 91, @Arizona St 83
@California 66, Stanford 55

B1G:
@Nebraska 83, Purdue 80 - something is wrong with Purdue, and the B1G is quickly turning into Wisky, Maryland, and a bunch of bubble teams (with Purdue in limbo)
@Michigan St 70, Michigan 62 - and here's two of those bubble teams.  These are almost all unanimously must-wins for the home teams right now
@Northwestern 68, Indiana 55 - the plot thickens on the bubble for both teams

AAC:
@Cincinnati 94, South Florida 53

elsewhere:
Wichita St 64, @Bradley 49
Illinois St 69, @Evansville 59 - these two MVC teams might matter yet, only by way of process of elimination.  I mean, they ARE winning all the games they should

1/28 recap

Big 12/SEC contrived competition made for the sole purpose of hyping up Kansas/Kentucky and profiting massively off of amateur athletics:
Kansas 79, @Kentucky 73 - signature road wins are everything.  I continue to maintain the Big 12 isn't good enough to support 2 teams on the 1 line, but they're trying right now
Baylor 78, @Ole Miss 75
@West Virginia 81, Texas A&M 77
Florida 84, @Oklahoma 52
@Texas Tech 77, LSU 64 - TTU really needed a better game than this
@Tennessee 70, Kansas St 58 - this is why road wins are never trivial
@Oklahoma St 99, Arkansas 71 - OSU is rallying back towards the bubble.  Arkansas was always a couple steps ahead of the bubble, but they gave back some wiggle room here
@Georgia 59, Texas 57
@Vanderbilt 84, Iowa St 78 - see Arkansas statement, apply it to ISU here
Auburn 88, @TCU 80 - just when I was ready to end Auburn's bubble tenure....and ready to move TCU up just a little bit to safer grounds

ACC:
@Syracuse 82, Florida St 72 - Syracuse was left for dead and now they're relevant again.  And FSU is starting to bleed seed lines.  Everything funneling to the median.  Big question for Syracuse is how crowded the ACC is.  14 teams now in at-large contention, there's not enough oxygen in this room
@Miami 77, North Carolina 62 - and now Miami gets a signature win.  Everyone in this conference has a damned signature win
Duke 85, @Wake Forest 83 - at this point, if you're a bubble team in this conference not getting quality wins, you're in big trouble.  Meanwhile, the saga of Duke's seed is still ongoing, and is a mess within itself
Clemson 67, @Pittsburgh 60 - Pitt is the 1 team most likely to fall off the at-large board.  Critical stay-in-the-game road win for Clemson

Big East:
Georgetown 85, @Butler 81 - Butler is starting to establish a trend of questionable losses, and they're at the point where they're really going to start hurting
@Creighton 83, DePaul 66 - it's only DePaul at home but Creighton needed to stop the slide
Providence 79, @Marquette 78 - this is an awful follow-up to a signature win for Marquette.  And Provi is still in pretty dire straits

Pac-12:
@Colorado 74, Oregon 64 - the difference between a 3 seed and a 6 seed is that the 3 seed wins these road games
@Utah 86, Oregon St 78

B1G:
Wisconsin 61, @Rutgers 54
Maryland 85, @Minnesota 78 - Minny now is kind of in a bit of bubble trouble
@Penn St 71, Illinois 67 - UI just about ready to lose the draft on the bubble
@Iowa 85, Ohio St 72 - and another bad loss

SEC:
South Carolina 63, @Missouri 53
@Alabama 71, Mississippi St 62

AAC:
@Tulsa 77, Central Florida 66 - this is just to highlight Tulsa is 3rd in this conference, so this isn't a 3-bid conference, and getting a NIT team might be a tough task at this point.  Maybe Memphis
@Houston 79, Temple 66 - and part of the problem is that Temple's non-con is being wasted

A-10:
@Rhode Island 71, St Bonaventure 59
@Richmond 101, Duquesne 90 - maybe a NIT team here, but if they interfere with the title race (VCU/Dayton), could be trouble for the conference

WCC:
Gonzaga 96, @Pepperdine 49
St Mary's 72, @Santa Clara 59

elsewhere:
@William & Mary 96, UNC-Wilmington 78 - just about a fatal blow to the at-large resume
@Nevada 82, New Mexico 65
@Middle Tennessee 71, Louisiana Tech 61

wat

No S-Curve update, but just wanted to pass this note along based on the result of the noon games:

I now have a 13-bid ACC, and Pitt as team #14 isn't all that far behind.

Carry on.

1/27 recap

@VCU 73, Dayton 68 - probably the optimal result to ensure a 2-bid A-10, but both these teams are in precarious positions.  I'm not sure there's enough quality wins to get this league to 3 bids

1/27 S-CURVE

1) I don't know, YOU tell me what to do with the 1 line right now.
2) The ACC is starting to stack up on the 2 and 3 lines.  The 3 line is very crowded.  For now, I've made UCLA the loser to fall to the 4 line, but I expect them to funnel back up.
3) The ACC is invading the bubble too.  The committee is going to have to take its time parsing out individual conference schedules in order to rank these teams properly.

The 1 line:  Villanova (19-2), Baylor (18-1), Gonzaga (21-0), Kansas (18-2)
The 2 line:  Kentucky (17-3), Florida St (18-3), Louisville (17-4), North Carolina (18-3)
The 3 line:  Virginia (16-3), West Virginia (16-4), Arizona (19-2), Butler (18-3)
The 4 line:  UCLA (19-3), Oregon (18-2), Wisconsin (17-3), Cincinnati (18-2)
The 5 line:  Notre Dame (17-4), Purdue (17-4), St Mary's (18-2), Maryland (17-2)
The 6 line:  Duke (15-5), Florida (15-5), South Carolina (15-4), SMU (18-4)
The 7 line:  Xavier (14-6), Arkansas (15-4), Creighton (17-3), Dayton (14-4)
The 8 line:  USC (18-4), Northwestern (17-4), Iowa St (13-6), Virginia Tech (15-5)
The 9 line:  Indiana (14-7), Marquette (14-6), Minnesota (15-6), Middle Tennessee (17-3)
The 10 line:  Kansas St (15-5), Miami (13-6), Michigan (14-7), California (14-6)
The 11 line:  TCU (13-6), North Carolina St (14-7), Michigan St (12-9), Seton Hall (13-7), Wake Forest (12-8), VCU (15-5)
The 12 line:  Illinois St (16-4), UNC-Wilmington (18-2), Nevada (17-4), Akron (16-3)
The 13 line:  New Mexico St (17-2), Valparaiso (15-4), Monmouth (16-5), Georgia Southern (12-6)
The 14 line:  Vermont (16-5), Belmont (14-4), UNC-Greensboro (13-6), NOrth Dakota St (13-6)
The 15 line:  Bucknell (16-6), Princeton (9-6), Winthrop (14-4), FGCU (13-6)
The 16 line:  Texas Southern (10-10), Weber St (8-7), New Orleans (9-7), UC-Irvine (11-10), Mount St Mary's (10-12), Morgan St (7-11)

Next 4 in:
Michigan
California
TCU
North Carolina St

Last 4 in:
Michigan St
Seton Hall
Wake Forest
VCU

Last 4 out:
Illinois St*
Clemson (11-8)
Pittsburgh (12-8)
Georgia Tech (12-8)
Wichita St (17-4)

Next 4 out:
UNC-Wilmington*
Texas Tech (14-6)
Illinois (12-8)
Georgia (11-8)
Oklahoma St (11-8)

Break it down!
ACC 10
B1G 8
Big East 6
Big 12 6
Pac-12 5
SEC 4
A-10 2
AAC 2
WCC 2

1/26 recap

ACC:
@North Carolina 91, Virginia Tech 72

Pac-12:
@Arizona 79, Washington St 62
Oregon 73, @Utah 67 - road wins are never trivial.  Utah needs to get one of these at some point
@Colorado 85, Oregon St 78

B1G:
@Northwestern 73, Nebraska 61
@Michigan 90, Indiana 60 - what the hell, Indiana?

WCC:
@Gonzaga 79, San Diego 43
@St Mary's 66, San Francisco 46

non-con:
@Cincinnati 86, Xavier 78 - X is doing more harm to their seed than you think

elsewhere:
UNC-Wilmington 87, @James Madison 76 - think it's time to start paying attention to UNC-W closer
@Middle Tennessee 72, Southern Miss 56 - MT too

1/25 recap

Big 12:
@Baylor 65, Texas Tech 61

ACC:
@Georgia Tech 78, Florida St 56 - ...the hell is this?
@Miami 78, Boston College 77

Pac-12:
@USC 84, UCLA 76 - the good news for USC is that holding serve at home in these kinds of games will be enough this year.  Probably time to drop UCLA some seed lines
@Arizona St 86, Washington 75

Big East:
Butler 61, @Seton Hall 54
@Georgetown 71, Creighton 51 - Creighton is now giving up large chunks of spots in the S-Curve
St John's 91, @Providence 86 - probably time to discard Provi from the bubble talk for good

SEC:
Florida 106, @LSU 71
@Mississippi St 89, Missouri 74
Texas A&M 80, @Ole Miss 76 - significant damage to Miss's at-large resume, and the middle of this conference just keeps getting weirder
Alabama 80, @Georgia 60 - well, Georgia isn't an at-large team...is Alabama?  Not really, but...

B1G:
@Ohio St 78, Minnesota 72 - Minny's gotta win these games if they expect to be completely free of the bubble this year
@Illinois 76, Iowa 64

AAC:
@Temple 77, Memphis 66 - I know some think Memphis is lurking, but there's just nothing there
SMU 65, @UCF 60 - this was probably UCF's best last hope at being bubble-relevant

A-10:
@Richmond 73, Rhode Island 62 - it's getting late early for URI's chances

elsewhere:
VMI 80, @Chattanooga 64 - that's an ugly loss
Penn 77, @LaSalle 74 - a pretty damning result to the A-10 conference as a whole
Nevada 76, @Boise St 57

1/24 recap

ACC:
Virginia 71, @Notre Dame 54 - road wins are never trivial.  This win should have good value in March
Louisville 106, @Pittsburgh 51 - I've wanted to throw Pitt away for awhile....now I feel a little better about doing so
@Syracuse 81, Wake Forest 76 - I have no idea what to do with Wake.  None.

Big East:
@Marquette 74, Villanova 72 - the signature win Marquette needed to be in bubble contention.  Quite simply a resume defining win that leaps them into the field for now.  As for Nova, the whole damn 1 line is chaos, so this won't hurt

Big 12:
@West Virginia 85, Kansas 69 - I was thinking WVU was in danger of losing a couple seed lines by March, so this is important to keep it in range of the 2 or 3 line.  Kansas/Baylor will be interesting in that I'm not sure there's room for 2 B12 teams on the 1 line
@Iowa St 70, Kansas St 65 - man, that could've been a real big resume builder for KSU.  As is, it's a solid win for a ISU team that isn't all that far from the bubble

SEC:
@Tennessee 82, Kentucky 80 - critical blow to UK's hopes for the 1 line.  Tennessee is still pretty damn far off the bubble
@South Carolina 98, Auburn 69 - looks like I missed on Auburn this year
Arkansas 71, @Vanderbilt 70 - road wins are never trivial

B1G:
@Wisconsin 82, Penn St 55
Purdue 84, @Michigan St 73 - it's a big ask, but MSU can't afford to let too many of these opportunities go by the boards.  It's getting late early for Izzo
@Maryland 67, Rutgers 55 - at this point, having the leaders hold serve in conference play is critical to the conference's chances of getting over 5 or so bids.  Need the top teams to represent quality wins for the bubble teams

elsewhere:
Akron 90, @Western Michigan 80 - Akron has a shiny RPI, but I can't imagine bubble talk with them, for now at least
@Wichita St 87, Southern Illinois 45

1/23 recap

ACC:
NC State 84, @Duke 82 - about 2 seconds after I left NCSU for dead, here they come back to the bubble race.  Meanwhile, we'll have plenty of time to discuss Duke's seed, which is going to be impossible to pin down

Big 12:
@Oklahoma St 89, TCU 76 - this is why road wins are never trivial.  Good bubble teams hold onto these wins, bad bubble teams lose their spot over losses like these
@Texas 84, Oklahoma 83 - no bracket impact, just a humorous observation that this was a Big Monday game

WCC:
Gonzaga 83, @Portland 64

1/23 BRACKET

EAST 35
@Buffalo
1) Villanova (19-1) vs. 16) Mount St Mary's (9-12)/Coppin St (4-14)
8) Virginia Tech (15-4) vs. 9) Michigan St (12-8)
@Buffalo
4) West Virginia (15-4) vs. 13) Monmouth (16-5)
5) Notre Dame (17-3) vs. 12) Akron (15-3)
@Salt Lake City
3) Arizona (18-2) vs. 14) North Dakota St (12-6)
6) Maryland (16-2) vs. 11) Miami (12-6)
@Indianapolis
2) Louisville (16-4) vs. 15) Bucknell (15-6)
7) Indiana (14-6) vs. 10) Middle Tennessee (16-3)

WEST 36
@Tulsa
1) Baylor (17-1) vs. 16) UC-Irvine (11-9)
8) Arkansas (15-4) vs. 9) Northwestern (16-4)
@Milwaukee
4) Creighton (17-2) vs. 13) Valparaiso (15-4)
5) Cincinnati (17-2) vs. 12) Illinois St (15-4)
@Greenville
3) Virginia (15-3) vs. 14) UNC-Greensboro (13-5)
6) Xavier (14-5) vs. 11) California (14-6)/VCU (15-5)
@Sacramento
2) UCLA (19-2) vs. 15) Princeton (9-6)
7) Minnesota (15-5) vs. 10) Pittsburgh (12-7)

SOUTH 34
@Indianapolis
1) Kentucky (17-2) vs. 16) New Orleans (8-7)/North Florida (5-13)
8) Iowa St (12-6) vs. 9) Seton Hall (13-6)
@Orlando
4) Wisconsin (16-3) vs. 13) Georgia Southern (11-6)
5) Duke (15-4) vs. 12) UNC-Wilmington (17-2)
@Milwaukee
3) Butler (17-3) vs. 14) Vermont (15-5)
6) Purdue (16-4) vs. 11) Wake Forest (12-7)
@Orlando
2) Florida St (18-2) vs. 15) Winthrop (13-4)
7) South Carolina (14-4) vs. 10) Kansas St (15-4)

MIDWEST 31
@Tulsa
1) Kansas (18-1) vs. 16) Weber St (8-7)
8) Dayton (14-4) vs. 9) USC (17-4)
@Sacramento
4) Oregon (17-2) vs. 13) New Mexico St (16-2)
5) St Mary's (17-2) vs. 12) Nevada (16-4)
@Greenville
3) North Carolina (17-3) vs. 14) Belmont (13-4)
6) Florida (14-5) vs. 11) Marquette (13-6)/Michigan (13-7)
@Salt Lake City
2) Gonzaga (19-0) vs. 15) Texas Southern (10-9)
7) SMU (17-4) vs. 10) TCU (13-5)

Bubble watch, part VIII: everyone else

These are quickie profiles and writeups you can use in your evaluations.  Don’t expect eloquent thoughts, they’re just quick-hitters.

WCC

Lockbox:

Gonzaga (19-0) (7-0) RPI 10 SoS 66

Vital signs:  8-0 R/N, non-con SoS 45, 4-0 vs. Top 50, 7-0 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  N-Florida, N-Iowa St, N-Arizona, St Mary’s

Bad losses:  nope

Only question is if they lose and if they can get to the 1 line.  Need help to get there, IMO.  Arizona winning the Pac-12 would help, too.

St Mary’s (17-2) (7-1) RPI 24 SoS 81

Vital signs:  6-1 R/N, non-con SoS 96, 2-1 vs. Top 50, 4-2 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  @Dayton

Bad losses:  UTA at home isn’t great

Those other top 100 wins?  There’s a Nevada in there, and a Stanford.  Meh.  But they did schedule okay, do have the road win at Dayton, and will be fine with no bad losses.

NIT Watch:

BYU (15-6) (6-2) RPI 99 SoS 157

San Francisco (13-7) (4-4) RPI 104 SoS 115 – but there’s a reasonable chance neither of these teams make the NIT.

Mountain West

Bubble:

Nevada (16-4) (5-2) RPI 44 SoS 110

Vital signs:  8-3 R/N, non-con SoS 150, 0-1 vs. Top 50, 2-3 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  SDSU, @UNM

Bad losses:  N-Iona, twice to Fresno?

Token listing as the MWC leader.  This isn’t happening.

NIT Watch:

Boise St (11-6) (5-2) RPI 85 SoS 121

Fresno St (11-7) (5-3) RPI 92 SoS 131

New Mexico (12-8) (5-3) RPI 83 SoS 60

San Diego St (10-7) (3-3) RPI 89 SoS 80 – and none of these teams will probably make it.  Or one will if they can separate from the rest.  Jeez.

MVC:

Bubble:

Illinois St (15-4) (8-0) RPI 29 SoS 83

Vital signs:  6-4 R/N, non-con SoS 49, 0-1 vs. Top 50, 2-1 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  Wichita, New Mexico?

Bad losses:  N-San Francisco, @Tulsa

No.  There’s nothing good here.  The SoS is a product of bad team avoidance and 6 wins in the 100-150 range.

Wichita St (16-4) (7-1) RPI 78 SoS 188

Vital signs:  6-3 R/N, non-con SoS 206, 0-3 vs. Top 50, 0-4 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  Tulsa!  @Oklahoma!

Bad losses:  Ok State at home

Man, that SoS collapsed on itself.  I just don’t see an argument here that can be made.

NIT Watch:

Missouri St (13-7) (5-3) RPI 144 SoS 242 – no.

Loyola(Chi) (12-7) (4-4) RPI 126 SoS 183 – no.

Everyone else:

Bubble:

UNC-Wilmington (17-2) (8-0) RPI 26 SoS 142

Vital signs:  10-2 R/N, non-con SoS 118, 0-2 vs. Top 50, 2-2 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  @Charleston?  @Bonaventure?

Bad losses:  I suppose @Clemson

I’ll give them a look as the road/neutral numbers are big and the SoS isn’t a killer and the CAA won’t sink them.  Going to be tough without any win of value, though.

Middle Tennessee (16-3) (7-0) RPI 35 SoS 99

Vital signs:  10-1 R/N, non-con SoS 23, 2-1 vs. Top 50, 5-1 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  N-UNC-W, @Ole Miss, Vandy?

Bad losses:  Tennessee St, Georgia St

Man, those two losses are killer.  Good non-con SoS, but there’s juuuust enough damage here to make a bid unlikely.

NIT Watch:

Charleston (15-5) (7-1) RPI 66 SoS 108 – I can see 2^nd place in the CAA being rewarded with a NIT bid, if the RPI is this shiny.

Texas-Arlington (12-5) (4-2) RPI 56 SoS 164 – win at St Mary’s has some juice, but not much behind it.

Arkansas St (12-6) (4-2) RPI 74 SoS 159 – beat G’town and Chattanooga, so there’s faint NIT hope.

Chattanooga (13-4) (6-1) RPI 63 SoS 178 – probably optimistic to list them.

Monmouth (16-5) (8-2) RPI 57 SoS 150 – not the same resume as last year.

Akron (15-3) (6-0) RPI 40 SoS 154 – signature win is Ga Southern, so don’t get carried away with the RPI.

Valparaiso (15-4) (6-1) RPI 62 SoS 146 – URI win is okay, just wish Alabama and BYU were better wins than what they are.

New Mexico St (16-2) (5-0) RPI 55 SoS 256 – how is the RPI so good with that SoS?

Bubble watch, part VII: A-10/AAC

These are quickie profiles and writeups you can use in your evaluations.  Don’t expect eloquent thoughts, they’re just quick-hitters.

A-10:

Bubble:

Dayton (14-4) (6-1) RPi 28 SoS 47

Vital signs:  5-3 R/N, non-con SoS 39, 1-2 vs. Top 50, 7-3 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  URI?

Bad losses:  @UMass, N-Nebraska, perhaps

7 top 100 wins…but a lot of them are marginal.  Profile is mostly saved by playing not bad teams in the non-con and mostly taking care of business.  There is some value in that.  But not a lot.  Better hold serve in the A-10.

VCU (15-5) (5-2) RPI 42 SoS 69

Vital signs:  6-4 R/N, non-con SoS 66, 1-2 vs. Top 50, 3-3 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  Middle Tennessee…LaSalle is the 2^nd best?

Bad losses:  GT at home, @Fordham

Not a great profile.  Needs heft at the top, likely won’t get it.  Needs depth, likely won’t get it.  It’s a tough case to make, although the computer numbers aren’t terrible.

Rhode Island (12-6) (4-2) RPI 48 SoS 45

Vital signs:  3-5 R/N, non-con SoS 30, 1-2 vs. Top 50, 2-6 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  N-Cincy

Bad losses:  home to LaSalle

The good news is there’s a decent signature win to lean on (but nothing behind it).  Plus, many losses make sense (at Dayton, Provi, and Valpo).  Went on the road and lost.  They kind of needed to convert one or two of those swing games on the road.  As is, I’m just not sure what to do with this.

NIT Watch:

LaSalle (11-6) (5-2) RPI 64 SoS 52 – not the worst profile in the world, but their 2^nd best win is Bucknell and they lost to TSU.

Richmond (11-8) (5-2) RPI 121 SoS 103 – mostly being listed because they’re near the top of the standings and ruining everything for the conference with their non-starter of a resume.

St Bonaventure (12-6) (4-2) RPI 100 SoS 118 – no top 100 wins.  Non-starter.

George Mason (12-6) (3-3) RPI 134 SoS 196 – terrible SoS.  Non-starter.

Davidson (9-8) (2-4) RPI 123 SoS 97

George Washington (10-9) (2-4) RPI 142 SoS 102

St Joseph’s (9-9) (2-4) RPI 107 SoS 55

UMass (12-8) (2-5) RPI 112 SoS 91 – man, this conference is good at piling up mediocre teams.  Look forward to 7 teams barely missing the NIT here.

AAC:

Lockbox:

Cincinnati (17-2) (7-0) RPI 16 SoS 59

Vital signs:  6-2 R/N, non-con SoS 38, 1-2 vs. Top 50, 8-2 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  SMU, @Iowa St, @Houston?

Bad losses:  N-URI doesn’t look so hot

Good overall numbers help camoflauge the lack of signature wins.  Safely in the tournament.  Just a matter of seeding them.  Good road/neutral record helps the situation.

Bubble:

SMU (17-4) (7-1) RPI 31 SoS 87

Vital signs:  4-4 R/N, non-con SoS 101, 2-2 vs. Top 50, 6-4 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  N-Pitt, TCU, @Memphis?

Bad losses:  @Boise perhaps

Relatively safe for now, no red flags in the resume, just need to stay above water.  AAC’s lack of quality teams makes this mission tougher than usual.

NIT Watch:

Tulsa (11-7) (5-1) RPI 103 SoS 104 – pretty telling I can’t put another team here on the bubble.  Tulsa has no quality win yet.

Memphis (15-5) (5-2) RPI 77 SoS 92 – non-con SoS of 181.  Did beat South Carolina at home, but need more.  So much more.

Central Florida (14-5) (5-2) RPI 96 SoS 190 – SoS problems, quality win problems.  Nope.

Houston (13-7) (4-4) RPI 68 SoS 67 – probably 3^rd best resume in the conference, beat URI, but are losing all the swing games they needed.

Temple (10-10) (1-6) RPI 75 SoS 23 – man, they had wins over Florida St and West Virginia and they’ve really messed this up.

Bubble watch, part VI: SEC

These are quickie profiles and writeups you can use in your evaluations.  Don’t expect eloquent thoughts, they’re just quick-hitters.

Lockbox:

Kentucky (17-2) (7-0) RPI 3 SoS 6

Vital signs:  7-1 R/N, non-con SoS 11, 5-2 vs. Top 50, 9-2 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  N-UNC, South Carolina, Arky, N-MSU?

Bad losses:  none

You’d maybe like more high-end wins if you’re contending for a 1 seed, but I think the committee will use eye test liberally in this spot.

South Carolina (14-4) (5-1) RPI 20 SoS 28

Vital signs:  4-3 R/N, non-con SoS 51, 3-3 vs. Top 50, 8-4 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  Florida, @Georgia?  Michigan?

Bad losses:  perhaps @Memphis looks marginal

Only one real hole in the resume is 1 win over a likely tournament team.  SEC play kind of makes it difficult to pick those up.  They’ll be mostly fine, but seeding will be tricky with them.

Florida (14-5) (5-2) RPI 11 SoS 2

Vital signs:  10-4 R/N, non-con SoS 1, 4-4 vs. Top 50, 10-5 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  @Arky, Ole Miss, Georgia?  N-Miami?

Bad losses:  home to Vandy

Ok, so this thing is weird.  Look at all those neutral site games…played throughout the state of Florida.  But a couple of those games had FGCU, Miami, Mercer…they’re really not that good in road/neutral games.  Don’t be fooled by that one stat.  Still, the #1 SoS, thanks to complete avoidance of cupcakes.  And great scheduling (St Bona and Belmont are top 100 teams, SHU is a top 50, etc.).  This is really the luckiest computer profile I’ve ever seen.  Also scheduled up with Duke and FSU and Gonzaga, but lost all those.  This is one of the weirdest resumes you’ll ever see.

Bubble:

Arkansas (15-4) (4-3) RPI 33 SoS 50

Vital signs:  4-2 R/N, non-con SoS 79, 0-3 vs. Top 50, 5-3 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  @Tenn?  Houston?  ugh

Bad losses:  Mississippi St

Pretty obvious what the problem is.  Need a quality win.  Good news is the other metrics are in good shape.

Georgia (11-7) (4-3) RPI 44 SoS 31

Vital signs:  4-5 R/N, non-con SoS 20, 1-4 vs. Top 50, 5-6 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  @Ole Miss?  @Auburn?

Bad losses:  @Oakland

This feels pretty generous.  The simple question, ‘who did you beat?’ does not have a good answer here.  None of the computer metrics are in too bad of shape otherwise, so pay attention if they can stack up some wins.

Ole Miss (12-7) (3-4) RPI 46 SoS 24

Vital signs:  4-4 R/N, non-con SoS 28, 0-7 vs. Top 100, 3-7 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  uh, Memphis at home?  @Auburn?  Tennessee?

Bad losses:  actually, none.  I don’t count MTSU at home as bad, for now

They seem to exist just to spread top 50 wins to the rest of the conference.  Great SoS thanks to smart avoidance of cupcakes.  Actually have beaten all the teams they should…and lost to all the teams they should.  If they can actually win games?  We might have something.  But not until then.

NIT Watch:

Alabama (11-7) (4-2) RPI 87 SoS 63 – no wins of any value, so don’t waste your time here.

Mississippi St (12-6) (3-3) RPI 121 SoS 125 – at least they won at Arkansas.  But the non-con SoS is hovering around 300, so discard them as they’re already out of signature win chances after losing to UK.

Auburn (13-6) (3-4) RPI 69 SoS 75 – kind of want to give them a chance, but TTU and Bama are their 2 Top 100 wins.  Nope.

Tennessee (9-9) (3-4) RPI 61 SoS 12 – did you know they’re 0-8 vs. the top 50?  One theme in this conference – scheduling up is helping all their computer numbers.  I’m not even listing Vandy because they’re under .500, but they have a RPI hovering around 60.

Texas A&M (10-8) (2-5) RPI 98 SoS 36 – not really; did beat VaTech and Georgia, which is more than some in this list.

Bubble watch, part V: B1G

These are quickie profiles and writeups you can use in your evaluations.  Don’t expect eloquent thoughts, they’re just quick-hitters.

Lockbox:

Wisconsin (16-3) (5-1) RPI 25 SoS 73

Vital signs:  5-3 R/N, non-con SoS 212, 1-3 vs. Top 50, 7-3 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  @Minny, @Indiana?

Bad losses:  none

Non-con SoS seems sketchy.  Played Maui and got burned with Tennessee and G’town.  Syracuse and Oklahoma and Marquette…wins that now have little value.  Still, they’re fine overall at all losses are very reasonable.  The chance at a high-end seed might be a problem, though.

Purdue (16-4) (5-2) RPI 27 SoS 47

Vital signs:  5-2 R/N, non-con SoS 107, 3-3 vs. Top 50, 6-3 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  N-Notre Dame, Wisky, Illinois?

Bad losses:  @Iowa, perhaps

Much like the rest of the conference, they lack high-end wins (and here, they lost their chances to nova and L’ville).  They’ll be mostly fine, but again this’ll hurt seeding only.

Maryland (16-2) (5-1) RPI 21 SoS 49

Vital signs:  7-0 R/N, non-con SoS 87, 3-1 vs. Top 50, 7-2 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  Indiana, K-State, swept Illinois?

Bad losses:  home to Nebraska

Here’s a case where the non-con SoS might be deceiving.  K-State, Pitt, Okie State, Georgetown all created some artificial value.  They need high-end wins…and aren’t going to have much of a chance to get it.  The road/neutral record is still very good, so I’m not worried about selection for now.  Just seeding.

Bubble:

Indiana (14-6) (4-3) RPI 73 SoS 67

Vital signs:  2-4 R/N, non-con SoS 178, 4-4 vs. Top 50, 5-5 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  UNC, N-Kansas, MSU

Bad losses:  @IPFW, for sure, probably Nebraska too

Probably safe thanks to the high-end wins, and now starting to win the other games they should.  Not much to say unless they start dropping games again.

Northwestern (16-4) (5-2) RPI 34 SoS 74

Vital signs:  6-3 R/N, non-con SoS 145, 2-4 vs. Top 50, 5-4 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  Dayton, Wake?

Bad losses:  none

Sometimes, just winning the games you’re supposed to is good enough.  Quintessential bubble resume – no signature wins that sparkle, but no losses that damage it badly.  Good road/neutral record, mostly from being the teams they should.  They’ll need another high end win or two, but they have enough chances.  I think.

Michigan St (12-8) (4-3) RPI 41 SoS 11

Vital signs:  3-7 R/N, non-con SoS 17, 3-4 vs. Top 50, 5-7 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  swept Minny, Northwestern?  Wichita?

Bad losses:  Penn St, Northeastern

Scheduled up, so they’ve earned a bit of wiggle room…that they’ve mostly blown.  Another case where February will make the resume, but the high-end win chances aren’t as plentiful as they’d usually be.

Minnesota (15-5) (3-4) RPI 19 SoS 10

Vital signs:  3-3 R/N, non-con SoS 13, 3-4 vs. Top 50, 8-5 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  @Purdue, @NW, Arky

Bad losses:  @Penn St, perhaps

The good non-con SoS is a point in its favor, and @Purdue is likely to stand up as a good enough signature win.  Probably could be a lock, but could use more depth of wins.

Michigan (13-7) (3-4) RPI 69 SoS 53

Vital signs:  2-5 R/N, non-con SoS 124, 2-6 vs. Top 50, 5-6 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  N-SMU, Illinois?  N-Marquette?

Bad losses:  Va Tech?  @Iowa

That SMU win is kind of a saver right now.  They need more quality wins, more high-end stuff, more road/neutral wins.  Your standard bubble resume at the moment.

Illinois (11-8) (2-5) RPI 49 SoS 13

Vital signs:  3-6 R/N, non-con SoS 37, 1-5 vs Top 50, 5-8 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  N-VCU, NC State?  Michigan?

Bad losses:  Winthrop

A shiny SoS and at least the one quality win are the only two factors that bring them to the at-large board at the moment.

NIT Watch:

Penn St (11-9) (3-4) RPI 71 SoS 25 – picked up wins over MSU and Minny in conference to stay afloat, but this resume likely isn’t going anywhere.

Iowa (11-9) (3-4) RPI 112 SoS 42 – nah.  But if they get hot they already have wins over ISU and Purdue in pocket.

Ohio St (12-8) (2-5) RPI 84 SoS 48 – also nah.

Bubble watch, part IV: Pac-12

These are quickie profiles and writeups you can use in your evaluations.  Don’t expect eloquent thoughts, they’re just quick-hitters.

Lockbox:

Arizona (18-2) (7-0) RPI 8 SoS 21

Vital signs:  8-2 R/N, non-con SoS 35, 3-2 vs. Top 50, 9-2 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  @UCLA, @USC, @Cal

Bad losses:  no

Work being done in conference play is helping erase a modest non-con.  The losses are plenty forgivable, it’s just that there’s not a lot of meat behind those two losses to help bolster the resume.  For this reason, the 1 line is probably out of reach.

UCLA (19-2) (6-2) RPI 22 SoS 79

Vital signs:  8-1 R/N, non-con SoS 196, 1-2 vs. Top 50, 8-2 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  @Kentucky, Cal, @Utah

Bad losses:  no

Signature wins on the road are everything.  Some very good features, with one mildly alarming one (that non-con SoS).  Seeding them is tricky, and falling behind Arizona in the conference race makes it trickier.

Oregon (17-2) (7-0) RPI 13 SoS 38

Vital signs:  5-2 R/N, non-con SoS 41, 2-1 vs. Top 50, 9-2 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  UCLA, USC, Valpo?

Bad losses:  N-Georgetown

That G’town loss is fatal given how it trapped them on the wrong side of the Maui bracket.  The good SoS is mostly a product of bad team avoidance, but they still won all those games.  The 1 line may be lost for them, though.

Bubble:

USC (17-4) (4-4) RPI 32 SoS 67

Vital signs:  7-2 R/N, non-con SoS 133, 1-2 vs. Top 50, 4-4 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  SMU, @A&M?  nah

Bad losses:  Cal at home I suppose

4 losses are reasonable conference losses, but that just means a lot of quality win chances are already by the boards for this team.  Middling profile will need to add some more to make the tourney.

California (14-6) (5-3) RPI 51 SoS 40

Vital signs:  3-4 R/N, non-con SoS 93, 1-5 vs. Top 50, 1-6 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  @USC, and that’s about it

Bad losses:  N-San Diego St at this point

A case where the entire resume will have to be built in-conference.  Non-con is filled with nothing terrible, but no quality win to lean on.

Utah (12-5) (5-2) RPI 60 SoS 82

Vital signs:  5-3 R/N, non-con SoS 254, 1-4 vs. Top 50, 1-4 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  USC…and literally nothing even close

Bad losses:  N-San Francisco

Second best win is…Colorado?  Holy moly what a disaster.  That non-con SoS is a clue.  How in the world can they be in right now?

NIT Watch:

Stanford (10-9) (3-5) RPI 59 SoS 18 – shiny SoS is only going to help the rest of the conference, not them.  Missing quality in the resume pretty clearly.

Bubble watch, part III: Big 12

These are quickie profiles and writeups you can use in your evaluations.  Don’t expect eloquent thoughts, they’re just quick-hitters.

Lockbox:

Kansas (18-1) (7-0) RPI 6 SoS 32

Vital signs:  7-1 R/N, non-con SoS 43, 4-0 vs. Top 50, 10-1 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  N-Duke, @Iowa St?  @TCU?  Lighter than you think

Bad losses:  N-Indiana if you’re competing for a 1 seed

The schedule isn’t as airtight as it was in years past.  Indiana fell back; UAB and Georgia are down, Stanford and Nebraska aren’t helping.  Could matter if we end up picking nits for the 1 line, but then again, racking up Big 12 wins will be sufficient for that.

Baylor (17-1) (6-1) RPI 1 SoS 7

Vital signs:  7-1 R/N, non-con SoS 7, 7-1 vs. Top 50, 11-1 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  Oregon, N-Louisville, Xavier

Bad losses:  none

Only nit to pick is only 3 true road wins; but after getting K-State and TCU, they’ll probably be fine there.  Also reaping the RPI rewards of the conference as a whole.  Non-con SoS inside the top 10 despite 2 SWAC teams.  What kind of sorcery is that?

West Virginia (15-4) (4-3) RPI 43 SoS 89

Vital signs:  5-3 R/N, non-con SoS 262, 4-1 vs. Top 50, 5-3 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  Baylor, @Virginia, TCU?

Bad losses:  Oklahoma, @TTU perhaps, N-Temple

That non-con SoS is going to be an issue, and likely because of bad cupcakes.  Too many home games against bad teams sunk them.  Do get credit for their one big road game at Virginia.  We’ll see how bad the seed gets hurt.

Bubble:

Iowa St (12-6) (4-3) RPI 52 SoS 46

Vital signs:  5-4 R/N, non-con SoS 162, 0-5 vs. Top 50, 3-5 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  N-Miami, @OSU?  TTU?

Bad losses:  @Iowa

Pretty bubbly.  Non-con is pretty bland against a bland schedule.  Will need to win a game or two they shouldn’t, and not lose more than a game or two they shouldn’t.

Kansas St (15-4) (4-3) RPI 39 SoS 78

Vital signs:  4-3 R/N, non-con SoS 264, 1-3 vs. Top 50, 2-4 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  WVU, @Okie St?

Bad losses:  @TTU, perhaps

Only 2 top 100 wins, ugly SoS numbers.  Pretty obvious what the issue is.  Time to fix it, however.

TCU (13-5) (3-4) RPI 30 SoS 34

Vital signs:  3-3 R/N, non-con SoS 103, 1-4 vs. Top 50, 4-5 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  Illinois St is the top 50, Iowa St?

Bad losses:  @TTU, perhaps

Two of the top 100 wins are Arky St and TSU…so this is dicey.  They’re going to need a better win than Iowa St at home to make it.  This profile feels a little mirage-y.

Texas Tech (14-5) (3-4) RPI 82 SoS 127

Vital signs:  2-4 R/N, non-con SoS 332, 3-1 vs. Top 50, 3-4 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  WVU, TCU, K-State

Bad losses:  @Oklahoma, N-Auburn

Let’s face it, they’re only here because of the WVU win.  Look at that non-con SoS!  It’s as awful as it looks.

NIT Watch:

Oklahoma St (10-8) (1-6) RPI 54 SoS 25 – nothing like seeing wins over UConn, Georgetown, and Wichita evaporate into nothing, huh?

Bubble watch, part II: Big East

These are quickie profiles and writeups you can use in your evaluations.  Don’t expect eloquent thoughts, they’re just quick-hitters.

Lockbox:

Villanova (19-1) (7-1) RPI 2 SoS 15

Vital signs:  9-1 R/N, non-con SoS 29, 6-1 vs. Top 50, 12-1 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  @Purdue, N-Notre Dame, @Creighton, Xavier

Bad losses:  none

Pretty standard resume for a 1 seed.  Only question is if anyone can catch them for #1 overall.  The ACC champ will likely absorb too many losses…Kansas maybe?

Butler (17-3) (6-2) RPI 4 SoS 8

Vital signs:  6-3 R/N, non-con SoS 16, 5-1 vs. Top 50, 13-1 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  N-Arizona, Villanova, Xavier, Cincy

Bad losses:  @Indiana St, @St John’s

They’ve dropped a couple road bombs.  Do you say premium home wins make up for that?  Maybe.  They do have a road win at Utah to help the cause.  So they’re winning at less than an elite clip away from home, but not a bad one; while winning at an elite clip at home.

Creighton (17-2) (5-2) RPI 12 SoS 21

Vital signs:  8-0 R/N, non-con SoS 70, 6-1 vs. Top 50, 9-2 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  N-Wisky, Butler, @Xavier

Bad losses:  home to Marquette

If there is a qualm, some of those 9 top 100 wins feel marginal (Akron and Ole Miss are top 50 wins right now, Nebraska and NC State are top 100 wins, etc.).  They’ll be fine, but pegging their seed range is difficult for now.

Xavier (14-5) (4-3) RPI 14 SoS 9

Vital signs:  4-4 R/N, non-con SoS 26, 2-4 vs. Top 50, 7-4 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  N-Wake, N-Clemson, Provi and Utah?

Bad losses:  @Colorado is turning sour

The issue here is a lack of a high-end win.  They just struck out in 3 straight games against the top end of the Big East.  There’s also the issue of sorta kinda not owning a win against a solid tournament team.  This needs to be fixed by March, and there’s the chance there’s only 4 such games left on the schedule.

Bubble:

Seton Hall (13-6) (3-4) RPI 36 SoS 41

Vital signs:  5-6 R/N, non-con SoS 111, 2-3 vs. Top 50, 3-6 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  N-Cal, N-South Carolina

Bad losses:  perhaps N-Stanford

The saving grace at the moment is no truly terrible losses to sink them.  Plenty of chances left on the board against the top of the conference; I would suggest getting at least 2 to have a reasonable argument in March.

Marquette (13-6) (4-3) RPI 53 SoS 51

Vital signs:  3-5 R/N, non-con SoS 223, 3-5 vs. Top 50, 6-6 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  @Creighton, for sure, @Georgia?  Seton Hall?

Bad losses:  the worst might be N-Michigan

Non-con SoS is an issue, although a few decent teams wound up on it (lost to Michigan and Pitt and Wisky, beat Georgia and Vandy).  They’ll need to do some in-conference work, I’m not quite sure that SoS will be an albatross in this case.

Providence (13-8) (3-5) RPI 51 SoS 35

Vital signs:  2-7 R/N, non-con SoS 115, 2-5 vs. Top 50, 6-6 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  URI, SHU, N-Memphis?

Bad losses:  @BC, @DePaul

Only a courtesy listing at this point.  Work to do, but the profile isn’t completely barren if they do work.

NIT Watch:

Georgetown (10-10) (1-6) RPI 94 SoS 23 – there’s an Oregon win here, and nothing else of note.

1/23 S-CURVE

The 1 line:  Villanova (19-1), Kansas (18-1), Kentucky (17-2), Baylor (17-1)
The 2 line:  Florida St (18-2), UCLA (19-2), Gonzaga (19-0), Louisville (16-4)
The 3 line:  North Carolina (17-3), Butler (17-3), Arizona (18-2), Virginia (15-3)
The 4 line:  Oregon (17-2), Creighton (17-2), West Virginia (15-4), Wisconsin (16-3)
The 5 line:  Notre Dame (17-3), Duke (15-4), Cincinnati (17-2), St Mary’s (17-2)
The 6 line:  Florida (14-5), Purdue (16-4), Xavier (14-5), Maryland (16-2)
The 7 line:  South Carolina (14-4), Indiana (14-6), Minnesota (15-5), SMU (17-4)
The 8 line:  Virginia Tech (15-4), Arkansas (15-4), Dayton (14-4), Iowa St (12-6)
The 9 line:  Seton Hall (13-6), Northwestern (16-4), USC (17-4), Michigan St (12-8)
The 10 line:  TCU (13-5), Middle Tennessee (16-3), Kansas St (15-4), Pittsburgh (12-7)
The 11 line:  Wake Forest (12-7), Miami (12-6), Marquette (13-6), California (14-6), Michigan (13-7), VCU (15-5)
The 12 line:  Illinois St (15-4), UNC-Wilmington (17-2), Nevada (16-4), Akron (15-3)
The 13 line:  Valparaiso (15-4), Monmouth (16-5), New Mexico St (16-2), Georgia Southern (11-6)
The 14 line:  North Dakota St (12-6), UNC-Greensboro (13-5), Vermont (15-5), Belmont (13-4)
The 15 line:  Bucknell (15-6), Winthrop (13-4), Princeton (9-6), Texas Southern (10-9)
The 16 line:  UC-Irvine (11-9), Weber St (8-7), New Orleans (8-7), Mount St Mary's (9-12), North Florida (5-13), Coppin St (4-14)

Next 4 in:
Kansas St
Pittsburgh
Wake Forest
Miami

Last 4 in:
Marquette
California
Michigan
VCU

Last 4 out:
Clemson
Georgia
Illinois St*
Rhode Island
Texas Tech

Next 4 out:
UNC-Wilmington*
Nevada*
Wichita St
Illinois
Providence
Utah

Bubble watch, part I: ACC

These are quickie profiles and writeups you can use in your evaluations.  Don’t expect eloquent thoughts, they’re just quick-hitters.

Lockbox:

Florida St (18-2) (6-1) RPI 5 SoS 14

Vital signs:  4-2 R/N, non-con SoS 108, 9-1 vs. Top 50, 10-2 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  @Virginia, Duke, Louisville, Minny, Florida…

Bad losses:  N-Temple perhaps

Time to talk about them on the 1 line.  But that non-con SoS, and the 9 Top 50 wins have a couple deceiving teams in there…but still, we have to discuss it.

Virginia (15-3) (5-2) RPI 17 SoS 33

Vital signs:  7-1 R/N, non-con SoS 79, 4-3 vs. Top 50, 7-3 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  @Cal, @Louisville, Provi?

Bad losses:  none

Non-con not quite as ironclad as you’d think.  Iowa, Provi, Ohio St aren’t as good as usual.  They’ll have to rely on conference resume a bit more, and it’s merely great, not outstanding.

Louisville (16-4) (4-3) RPI 7 SoS 1

Vital signs:  5-3 R/N, non-con SoS 8, 5-4 vs. Top 50, 9-4 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  Purdue, Kentucky, Duke

Bad losses:  none

While only 5-4 vs. top 50, might be a better resume than that would suggest.  Obviously the #1 SoS helps.  Signature wins everywhere, although at home.  Add in some road wins and we can talk about the 1 line.

North Carolina (17-3) (6-1) RPI 9 SoS 27

Vital signs:  7-3 R/N, non-con SoS 31, 4-1 vs. Top 50, 9-3 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  N-Wisky, FSU, @Clemson?

Bad losses:  @Indiana, @GT?

Not as strong a resume as you think, at least for a chance at the 1 line.  Needs depth of quality wins for that 1 seed, but opportunities will come.  Everything looks great but not superb.

Duke (15-4) (3-3) RPI 14 SoS 29

Vital signs:  5-4 R/N, non-con SoS 50, 3-4 vs. Top 50, 6-4 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  Florida, URI, MSU

Did you know they didn’t play a true road game in the non-con and still haven’t won a true road game?  Fix that before we talk about the top 2 lines, fellas.

Notre Dame (17-3) (6-1) RPI 19 SoS 44

Vital signs:  5-3 R/N, non-con SoS 187, 5-3 vs. Top 50, 6-3 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  Louisville, @Pitt, @VT, N-NW

Bad losses:  none

Marginal non-con numbers and resume kind of keep them a half-step behind the ACC elite.  We’ll see how much that hurts later.

Bubble:

Virginia Tech (15-4) (4-3) RPI 37 SoS 74

Vital signs:  4-3 R/N, non-con SoS 269, 3-2 vs. Top 50, 7-4 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  Duke, @Clemson?  Ole Miss?

Bad losses:  @NC St?  N-A&M?

Boy, that non-con SoS is a killer.  Not the worst collection of wins in it (@Michigan, N-Nebraska, N-UNM included), but the committee hates that thing.  Harmed more by too many cupcakes than anything else.  In for now, but I’m not excited.

Wake Forest (12-7) (3-4) RPI 23 SoS 5

Vital signs:  5-5 R/N, non-con SoS 12, 0-7 vs. Top 50, 4-7 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  Miami, @NCSU?

Bad losses:  Clemson at home

Poster child for bad RPIing.  Jesus.  23 my ass.  Those other top 100 wins are Charleston and Bucknell, by the way.  Actually only that one bad loss, so they can win their way to the bubble, but right now they count as a top 25 opponent for everyone else’s benefit.  What in the literal f.

Georgia Tech (11-8) (3-4) RPI 94 SoS 56

Vital signs:  2-5 R/N, non-con SoS 275, 3-5 vs. Top 50, 4-7 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  @VCU, UNC, Clemson?

Bad losses:  @Penn St?  @Tennessee?

Would really have a chance if they’d win a couple of their swing games.  As is, a longshot, but still on the board because of that top-end win over UNC.

Miami (12-6) (2-4) RPI 81 SoS 94

Vital signs:  4-5 R/N, non-con SoS 263, 1-4 vs. Top 50, 3-5 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  @Pitt, NC State?

Bad losses:  @Syracuse

Not a good situation.  Lost most of their tough games, terrible non-con SoS.  Just not good enough.

Pittsburgh (12-7) (1-5) RPI 38 SoS 17

Vital signs:  3-5 R/N, non-con SoS 28, 2-3 vs. Top 50, 5-5 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  @Maryland, Virginia

Bad losses:  @Syracuse?  N-Duquesne

ACC conference play is eating them up.  Good resume turning bad.

Clemson (11-8) (1-6) RPI 47 SoS 16

Vital signs:  4-5 R/N, non-con SoS 59, 4-6 vs. Top 50, 6-7 vs. Top 100

Signature wins:  @South Carolina, UNC-W

Bad losses:  N-Oklahoma, @GT?

4 Top 50 wins!  UNC-W is semi-legitimate…Wake isn’t.  If conference play wasn’t destroying their record they’d have a chance.

NIT Watch:

Syracuse (11-9) (3-4) RPI 130 SoS 65 – seems like they can only get in the way of the rest of the conference at this point.

North Carolina St (13-7) (2-5) RPI 79 SoS 57 – too many teams ahead of them