Preseason S-CURVE

The 1 line:  North Carolina, Maryland, Kentucky, Kansas
The 2 line:  Arizona, Duke, Wichita St, Villanova
The 3 line:  Indiana, Gonzaga, Oklahoma, Michigan St
The 4 line:  Iowa St, Virginia, Wisconsin, Baylor
The 5 line:  Louisville, Georgetown, San Diego St, Purdue
The 6 line:  California, Xavier, Notre Dame, Rhode Island
The 7 line:  Butler, Vanderbilt, Michigan, Utah
The 8 line:  UConn, Dayton, Florida, Tulsa
The 9 line:  Florida St, Texas A&M, Boise St, Northern Iowa
The 10 line:  Buffalo, LSU, Oregon, Cincinnati
The 11 line:  Oregon St, Davidson, Texas, Ohio St
The 12 line:  North Carolina St, Marquette, UCLA, Central Michigan, Old Dominion, Valparaiso
The 13 line:  Iona, Belmont, Harvard, Montana
The 14 line:  Hofstra, UC Irvine, North Florida, Stephen F Austin
The 15 line:  Louisiana-Lafayette, Wofford, South Dakota St, Stony Brook
The 16 line:  New Mexico St, Robert Morris, High Point, Lehigh, North Carolina Central, Texas Southern

Next 4 in:
Oregon St
Davidson
Texas
Ohio St

Last 4 in:
North Carolina St
Marquette
UCLA
Central Michigan

Last 4 out:
Northwestern
BYU
Illinois St
West Virginia

Next 4 out:
UNLV
Illinois
Syracuse
Miami

Break it down! (seeds in parens):
Big 10 7 (1, 3, 3, 4, 5, 7, 11)
ACC 7 (1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 9, 12)
Pac-12 6 (2, 6, 7, 10, 11, 12)
Big 12 5 (1, 3, 4, 4, 11)
Big East 5 (2, 5, 6, 7, 12)
SEC 5 (1, 7, 8, 9, 10)
AAC 3 (8, 8, 10)
A-10 3 (6, 8, 11)
MVC 2 (2, 9)
Mountain West 2 (5, 9)
MAC 2 (10, 12)

Trends:
1) I expect the Big 12 to be more top-heavy.  It's certainly possible teams outside the big 4 this year (KU/ISU/OU/BU) get pulled up by osmosis, but for now I predict a 4-team breakaway and only enough wins for one other team (Texas for now) to get through.  I don't think you'll see 6 or 7.
2) Pretty clear who the top 2 conferences are this year.  B1G and ACC with 7 apiece, and I could easily see 8 for both.
3) I'm struggling to find Pac-12 teams that I think can really be high up.  They'll get their fair share in, but they may not be highly ranked.  Same situation in the SEC, but that's not new.  Actually, I'm willing to bet it's more likely the SEC has a second high seed than the Pac-12.
4) The AAC is in all sorts of trouble, especially if SMU dominates the conference like I think they could.
5) If you do not know, it's tradition here to project an at-large bid for the MAC.