Saturday, November 9, 2013

Preseason bracket thoughts

I figured it would be worth a quick look to compare my bracket to all the other preseason brackets.  Taking a look over at the Bracket Matrix (thanks for the link!), there's a couple dozen or so brackets to compare mine to.  So where do I differ from the consensus?

1) On the 1 line, two others have joined me with putting Oklahoma St there (we have a good consensus on Michigan St, Duke, and Kentucky up there).  Looks like Louisville is the 4th 1 seed to start.  Obviously, I think the AAC is going to hurt them a little bit more. 

2) I'm a bit more pessimistic on the SEC than most.  I have Florida as a 4 (consensus is 2) and Tennessee a 10 (consensus 7).  On the other hand, I have LSU as a 8 (consensus 11).  I still question the depth of the SEC greatly.  There's not many quality win opportunities in the conference, and Kentucky isn't going to be giving any up on top of it.

3) Marquette seems to be the top-ranked Big East team.  That's worth a 2 seed in my book, but a 4 in everyone else's.  Obviously the non-con is different, but Marquette will need as many quality wins in the Big East as Louisville needs in the AAC to win their conferences.  I'm the only one with Marquette as high as a 2, and I think they're low on all 3 Big East favorites (Georgetown and Creighton being the other 2).

4) Among at-large teams, I disagree with the consensus on four different teams (I have St John's, Kansas St, Alabama, and Stanford out, and Indiana St, Cal, Ole Miss, and UMass in).  No real issues with any of those.

5) Everyone has New Mexico St in the field, but I'm the only one with them on the 16 line.  Guys, the WAC is a bottom 3 conference this year.  Go look at past years and see what seeds those conference champions get, even if they dominate the conference.  It's not good.

6) Everyone's got Harvard winning the Ivy, but a majority have them around a 8-9-10 seed, instead of 13.  More of a judgment call, as I think they're not going to win the Ivy going away.  Comparing them to mid-majors who have gotten 8-9-10 seeds in the past, I don't think they can build a good enough resume.

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