If you're confused by all the changes, here's a complete list of all the moves and impact compared to last year.
Big East (new conference): Georgetown, Villanova, Seton Hall, St John's, Providence, DePaul, Marquette, Creighton, Xavier, Butler
Obviously the biggest change is the fracture of the old Big East. This is common knowledge by now. What will remain to be seen is how the bottom half of the conference will perform, now that bottom dwellers like DePaul have less heavyweights to deal with. The early expectation will probably be 4 bids, and I think they get there.
AAC (new conference): UConn, Louisville, Memphis, Temple, Cincinnati, USF, UCF, Houston, SMU, Rutgers
The other half of the big change. Again, the bottom half of the conference holds the key to the conference's future. This is another wait and see situation, to see how many teams they'll get in the NCAA tournament. The early expectation will probably be 4 bids, and it'll be true this year, before Louisville moves.
ACC: adds Notre Dame, Pitt, Syracuse
The ACC is now a 15 team conference and a loaded one. In past years, the ACC has really struggled with depth, and the lack of at-large bids for their average teams show it. Teams like Virginia Tech, Maryland, etc, have struggled to gain traction because of mediocre SoS, mediocre conference results, etc. So adding 3 quality programs is huge. Not only will these teams make the NCAA tournament regularly, they will give the middle class of the league more signature win chances. I expect 7-8 bids annually.
WCC: adds Pacific
WCC goes from a 9 team conference to 10, picking up a competent Pacific team. The WCC has struggled with depth in recent years - no one outside the Big 3 have been a consistent threat. This move will help more than you think at first glance, as Pacific probably envisions itself as a program that will consistently contend for WCC titles. Plus, they might bring 2 potential top 100 RPI wins to a conference that needs more quality win chances.
A-10: loses Butler, Charlotte, Temple, adds George Mason
Oof. It's going to be a struggle now. For a conference that envisions itself as a power one, they're closer to the MVC and WCC than they are to the AAC and MWC. They're not bad enough to force them into 1 bid status, but the days of 3 and 4 bids are o-v-e-r. The key is building depth behind VCU - they need 4 or 5 top 100 teams to give enough quality win chances for everyone else.
MVC: loses Creighton, adds Loyola
Pretty obviously a big blow to the strength of the conference. Expectations is still multiple bids here, but the road is tougher with less quality win chances inside the conference. The contending teams will have to make up for it in the non-con.
CUSA: loses Houston, SMU, UCF, Memphis, adds Charlotte, FIU, FAU, Louisiana Tech, MTSU, North Texas, Old Dominion, UTSA
What upheaval. CUSA loses its meal ticket. The good news for them is they add a few programs with good potential (ODU, Charlotte, LT, MTSU). Can they get a 2nd bid this year? Probably not. Can they get 2 bids most years in the future? Possibly. The problem is they have no signature team. They might have 0 Top 50 teams but 6 Top 100 teams. That's a recipe for 1 bid, usually.
Sun Belt: loses FIU, FAU, MTSU, North Texas, adds Georgia St, Texas-Arlington, Texas St
They were already underachieving to begin with, now it's worse. 1 bid for now and the future. Don't let FBS status fool you into thinking they're any better.
CAA: loses George Mason, Old Dominion, Georgia St, adds Charleston
At least the new program is quality, because they lost their two best ones. Last year, the CAA plummeted way down the conference RPI rankings. They'll be back to a top 20 conference long-term, but the damage is done. This is a one-bid conference, and the days of them being considered alongside the WCC and MVC are long gone.
MAAC: loses Loyola(MD), adds Quinnipiac, Monmouth
Minus one decent program, plus two decent ones. No real shift in their pecking order in the college basketball echelon. They'll continue to be a top 15 conference, and poach an at-large bid every 5 years or so.
Horizon: loses Loyola, adds Oakland
Probably a zero-sum transaction for them. Which is bad news, because this conference without Butler is losing relevance. Probably a top 15 conference, but they've lost the draft of the top mid-major conferences.
Summit: loses Oakland, adds Denver
Probably a zero-sum transaction too, but Denver has potential long-term. With the XDSUs and Denver long-term, at least the conference champion can look forward to decent seeds. League is still to shallow to produce an at-large bid.
Patriot League: adds Boston, Loyola(MD)
Neither new program are world-beaters, but they are competent programs for a conference that has had a few at-large relevant teams in recent years. Still a 1-bid league, but this could help seeding.
Big West: loses Pacific
Not good news to lose one of your better programs. Now probably solidly inside the bottom 10 conferences.
Northeast: loses Quinnipiac, Monmouth
Short term, not much difference for the conference. Long term, could hurt.
America East: loses Boston, adds UMass-Lowell
For a conference struggling to stay out of the bottom 5 conferences, this is a death blow.
Southland: adds Abilene Christian, Incarnate Word, New Orleans, Houston Baptist
This conference backfilled a year late. No programs of note here. Southland likely solidifying itself as a bottom 5 conference.
SoCon: loses Charleston
It's a long-term blow for the conference, who will backfill later. They're also losing Davidson later.
WAC: loses Louisiana Tech, Denver, San Jose St, Texas St, UTSA, Utah St, adds Grand Canyon, Cal St-Bakersfield, UMKC, Utah Valley, Texas-Pan American, Chicago St, Seattle
No analysis necessary. New Mexico St needs to find any way out of this conference.
Great West/Independents
It only existed as a makeshift conference for a bunch of independent teams, and to give them a temporary home. It never really was meant to be a permanent hope. Still, we shall mourn, and wonder what will happen to the last independent, NJIT.
The long term effect of all this: The A-10, CUSA weakened, and power was consolidated to the top 8 conferences a bit more. The bottom conferences are losing their signature programs (Charleston/SoCon, CAA/George Mason, AEast/Boston, CUSA/Memphis, etc). The gap between the haves and have nots are widening, with very few still left in the middle (basically just the A-10, MVC, and WCC).
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