Thursday, November 7, 2013

A full bracket is in the post below this one.  But for now, a preseason S-Curve:

The 1 line:  Kentucky, Duke, Michigan St, Oklahoma St
The 2 line:  Arizona, Louisville, Kansas, Marquette
The 3 line:  North Carolina, Michigan, Ohio St, Syracuse
The 4 line:  Georgetown, Wichita St, Florida, Creighton
The 5 line:  Gonzaga, Oregon, VCU, Wisconsin
The 6 line:  New Mexico, Memphis, Virginia, Connecticut
The 7 line:  UCLA, Indiana, UNLV, Baylor
The 8 line:  St Louis, Notre Dame, LSU, San Diego St
The 9 line:  Iowa, LaSalle, Pittsburgh, California
The 10 line:  Colorado, Indiana St, Villanova, Tennessee
The 11 line:  Maryland, Cincinnati, BYU, Southern Miss
The 12 line:  Iowa St*, Massachusetts*, Ole Miss*, Boise St*, Eastern Kentucky, Akron
The 13 line:  Harvard, Denver, Charleston, Mercer
The 14 line:  Wright St, Davidson, Boston, Iona
The 15 line:  Weber St, Vermont, Long Beach St, Wagner
The 16 line:  Western Kentucky, Oral Roberts, New Mexico St*, Norfolk St*, Charleston Southern*, Texas Southern*


Some random musings:
1) The ACC and the B1G are the best 2 conferences.  Their conference champions will be strong favorites to be on the 1 line, along with obviously Kentucky.  The last #1 spot will be a battle royale between the Big 12 winner, Pac-12 winner, and schools like Louisville and Marquette who will be battling uphill against their conference weaknesses.
2) Further on conference strength, I expect the B1G and ACC to invade the protected seed lines.  They each have 3 spots in the top 3 lines.
3) How will the committee treat AAC and Big East conference champions?  And for that matter, how about the triumvirate of VCU, Gonzaga, and Wichita St, clear conference favorites in weaker conferences?  They could get crowded out of the top 5 lines.

finally:
Last 4 out:   Missouri, Kansas St, Arizona St, North Dakota St
Next 4 out:  Illinois, Northern Iowa, St Mary's, Alabama
Under consideration:  Utah St, FGCU, Belmont, St John's, Florida St, Louisiana Tech, Colorado St, St Joseph's, Central Florida, Ohio

By the way, this list can double as an approximate NIT projection, with the NIT bubble not too far away from the bottom of this list.

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