2/28 recap

@Michigan 82, Nebraska 53
Minnesota 62, @Northwestern 50

Xavier 84, @St John's 73 - is Xavier the 5th best Big East team now?

Gonzaga 86, @Pacific 66
San Diego 91, @San Francisco 90
@St Mary's 65, Portland 48

Wofford 80, @Chattanooga 54
Furman 90, @Samford 81
Murray St 71, @Morehead St 52
Belmont 112, UT-Martin 67

Pac-12 fail tracker:
@Cal 76, Washington 73
@Oregon 79, Arizona St 51
Arizona 74, @Oregon St 72

2/28 S-CURVE

Moved Houston to the 2 line.  I certainly may change my mind on this though, but it just feels right for the moment.  They're playing too well to ignore.  This is one where I think the committee goes to the eye test.

The 1 line:  Virginia, Gonzaga, Duke, Kentucky
The 2 line:  Tennessee, North Carolina, Michigan St, Houston
The 3 line:  Michigan, LSU, Kansas, Purdue
The 4 line:  Marquette, Texas Tech, Nevada, Florida St
The 5 line:  Iowa St, Wisconsin, Virginia Tech, Kansas St
The 6 line:  Mississippi St, Villanova, Maryland, Iowa
The 7 line:  Buffalo, Louisville, Cincinnati, Washington
The 8 line:  Ole Miss, Baylor, Wofford, Syracuse
The 9 line:  Auburn, St John's, VCU, Texas
The 10 line:  Ohio St, Oklahoma, Arizona St, TCU
The 11 line:  Florida, Alabama, Central Florida, Seton Hall
The 12 line:  Minnesota, Temple, North Carolina St, Utah St, Belmont, Lipscomb
The 13 line:  New Mexico St, Hofstra, Yale, Old Dominion
The 14 line:  Vermont, UC Irvine, South Dakota St, Loyola(Chi)
The 15 line:  Texas St, Montana, Wright St, Radford
The 16 line:  Colgate, Sam Houston St, St Francis(PA), Iona, Norfolk St, Prairie View A&M

Next 4 in:
Florida
Alabama
Central Florida
Seton Hall

Last 4 in:
Minnesota
Temple
North Carolina St
Utah St

Last 4 out:
Clemson
St Mary's
Indiana
Oregon St

Next 4 out:
Georgetown
Butler
Xavier
Providence

2/27 recap

@Virginia 81, Georgia Tech 51
Clemson 62, @Pitt 48
@BC 66, Louisville 59 - this is why I say road wins are never trivial

Tennessee 73, @Ole Miss 71
Auburn 78, @Georgia 75
Florida 71, @Vandy 55 - SEC slowly crawling towards an 8-bid year

@Villanova 67, Marquette 61 - I'm starting to get annoyed at Nova
@Georgetown 82, DePaul 73

@Texas Tech 84, Oklahoma St 80 (OT) - near catastrophe
@Baylor 84, Texas 83 (OT)

@Purdue 73, Illinois 56
@Penn St 78, Maryland 61 - ouch

Houston 99, @ECU 65
Cincinnati 52, @SMU 49
UCF 75, @USF 63 - you know, in this bubble climate, this should go down as a quality win

@Nevada 89, UNLV 73
@LaSalle 79, Davidson 69 - probably over for Davidson

2/27 S-CURVE

Changes from last update (handy cheat sheet for the bracket matrix):
Kansas St from a 5 to a 6
Virginia Tech from a 6 to a 5
TCU from a 9 to a 10
Texas from a 10 to a 9
Temple from a 10 to a 11
Alabama from a 11 to a 10


The 1 line:  Virginia, Gonzaga, Duke, Kentucky
The 2 line:  Tennessee, North Carolina, Michigan St, Michigan
The 3 line:  Houston, LSU, Kansas, Marquette
The 4 line:  Purdue, Texas Tech, Nevada, Florida St
The 5 line:  Iowa St, Wisconsin, Virginia Tech, Maryland
The 6 line:  Kansas St, Louisville, Mississippi St, Iowa
The 7 line:  Buffalo, Villanova, Washington, Ole Miss
The 8 line:  Cincinnati, Baylor, Wofford, Syracuse
The 9 line:  Auburn, St John's, VCU, Texas
The 10 line:  Ohio St, Oklahoma, Arizona St, TCU
The 11 line:  Seton Hall, Florida, Alabama, Central Florida
The 12 line:  Minnesota, Temple, North Carolina St, Utah St, Belmont, Lipscomb
The 13 line:  New Mexico St, Hofstra, Yale, Old Dominion
The 14 line:  Vermont, UC Irvine, South Dakota St, Texas St
The 15 line:  Montana, Missouri St, Wright St, Radford
The 16 line:  Bucknell, Sam Houston St, St Francis(PA), Iona, Norfolk St, Prairie View A&M

Next 4 in:
Seton Hall
Florida
Alabama
Central Florida

Last 4 in:
Minnesota
Temple
North Carolina St
Utah St

Last 4 out:
Clemson
St Mary's
Indiana
Oregon St

Next 4 out:
Georgetown
Butler
Xavier
Providence

2/26 recap

@Virginia Tech 77, Duke 72 - time to revisit the 1 line order.  I'm thinking Virginia/Gonzaga/Duke/Kentucky?  Yeah, sounds about right.  On the other end, not sure how much credit to give VT.  I guess I'll let them back in on the 5 line
@North Carolina 93, Syracuse 85

@Kentucky 70, Arkansas 66
@LSU 66, Texas A&M 55
Alabama 68, @South Carolina 62 - road wins are never trivial, especially over a team who's done some damage to the SEC this season
@Mississippi St 68, Missouri 49

@Ohio St 90, Iowa 70 - this should solidify OSU in the field, just about for good
@Indiana 75, @Wisconsin 73 (2OT) - oh for fuck's sake

Providence 73, @Butler 67 (OT) - I don't know what to do with the Big East.  Help

@West Virginia 104, TCU 96 (3OT) - what a dumb loss.  Potential resume-killer.  Can't give away these games and make the field

@Memphis 81, Temple 73 - this one doesn't look too bad, but it's still a loss for a prospective bubble team.  Not great
@Utah St 70, San Diego St 54
@Buffalo 77, Akron 64 - Bowling Green lost, so UB should be home free for the conference title
Dayton 72, @UMass 48
@VCU 71, St Louis 65
@Liberty 76, Kennesaw St 59

2/25 recap

@Florida St 68, Notre Dame 61
@Lipscomb 81, NJIT 77
@Iowa St 78, Oklahoma 61 - If you want me to take out Oklahoma...just tell me who goes in their place
@Kansas 64, Kansas St 49 - I want to bounce KU everywhere from the 2 line to the 4 line right now.  I have no idea where they're going to go

2/25 BRACKET

EAST 33
@Columbia
1) Duke vs. 16) Iona/Norfolk St
8) Baylor vs. 9) Auburn
@San Jose
4) Nevada vs. 13) New Mexico St
5) Kansas St vs. 12) Minnesota/North Carolina St
@Tulsa
3) LSU vs. 14) South Dakota St
6) Iowa vs. 11) Temple
@Des Moines
2) Michigan St vs. 15) Missouri St
7) Buffalo vs. 10) Oklahoma

MIDWEST 34
@Columbus
1) Kentucky vs. 16) Bucknell
8) Cincinnati vs. 9) VCU
@Hartford
4) Purdue vs. 13) Yale
5) Iowa St vs. 12) Alabama/Utah St
@Salt Lake City
3) Kansas vs. 14) UC Irvine
6) Louisville vs. 11) Central Florida
@Jacksonville
2) North Carolina vs. 15) Wright St
7) Ole Miss vs. 10) Ohio St

WEST 36
@Salt Lake City
1) Gonzaga vs. 16) Prairie View A&M/St Francis(PA)
8) Syracuse vs. 9) TCU
@Jacksonville
4) Florida St vs. 13) Hofstra
5) Wisconsin vs. 12) Lipscomb
@Tulsa
3) Houston vs. 14) Texas St
6) Mississippi St vs. 11) Seton Hall
@Des Moines
2) Michigan vs. 15) Montana
7) Washington vs. 10) Texas

SOUTH 33
@Columbus
1) Virginia vs. 16) Sam Houston St
8) Wofford vs. 9) St John's
@San Jose
4) Texas Tech vs. 13) Old Dominion
5) Maryland vs. 12) Belmont
@Hartford
3) Marquette vs. 14) Vermont
6) Virginia Tech vs. 11) Florida
@Columbia
2) Tennessee vs. 15) Radford
7) Villanova vs. 10) Arizona St

2/25 S-CURVE

The 1 line:  Duke, Virginia, Gonzaga, Kentucky
The 2 line:  Tennessee, North Carolina, Michigan St, Michigan
The 3 line:  Houston, LSU, Kansas, Marquette
The 4 line:  Purdue, Texas Tech, Nevada, Florida St
The 5 line:  Wisconsin, Iowa St, Maryland, Kansas St
The 6 line:  Louisville, Mississippi St, Iowa, Virginia Tech
The 7 line:  Buffalo, Villanova, Washington, Ole Miss
The 8 line:  Cincinnati, Baylor, Wofford, Syracuse
The 9 line:  Auburn, TCU, St John's, VCU
The 10 line:  Oklahoma, Texas, Arizona St, Ohio St
The 11 line:  Seton Hall, Florida, Temple, Central Florida
The 12 line:  Alabama, Minnesota, North Carolina St, Utah St, Belmont, Lipscomb
The 13 line:  New Mexico St, Hofstra, Yale, Old Dominion
The 14 line:  Vermont, UC Irvine, South Dakota St, Texas St
The 15 line:  Montana, Missouri St, Wright St, Radford
The 16 line:  Bucknell, Sam Houston St, St Francis(PA), Iona, Norfolk St, Prairie View A&M

Next 4 in:
Seton Hall
Florida
Temple
Central Florida

Last 4 in:
Alabama
Minnesota
North Carolina St
Utah St

Last 4 out:
Butler
Clemson
St Mary's
Oregon St

Next 4 out:
Georgetown
Furman
Xavier
UNC Greensboro

Break it down!:
Big 12 8
B1G 8
SEC 8
ACC 8
Big East 4
AAC 4
Pac-12 2
MWC 2

2/24 recap

You know, there's usually a late Sunday Pac-12 game that delays these posts.  This year, I can march forward early without fear of missing anything relevant.

Michigan St 77, @Michigan 70 - right now we have a 7-team breakaway for 4 spots on the 1 line.  Ironically, I still might be moving UM up to the 2 line anyways, thanks to Kansas
@Rutgers 68, Minnesota 64 - oh no baby what is you doing
@Xavier 66, Villanova 54 - Nova is spilling quite a bit of equity now.  I'm not sure they're above an 8.  Xavier has SJU twice, so there's still time to make this resume into something
@UCF 95, SMU 48
Cincinnati 64, @UConn 60
@NC State 94, Wake 74
@Arizona St 69, Cal 59 - service holds elsewhere today
@UNC Greensboro 60, East Tennessee St 59

2/23 recap

@VCU 85, George Washington 57
@Dayton 70, St Louis 62

Duke 75, @Syracuse 65
Virginia 64, @Louisville 52 - it's going to be really tough to move UVa out of the top 2 overall right now.  They can probably spend multiple losses and still be okay
@North Carolina 77, Florida St 59 - UNC solidifying as a 2 seed; FSU probably will straddle the 4/5 edge from here on in
Virginia Tech 67, @Notre Dame 59
@Clemson 76, BC 66

@North Florida 75, Liberty 70 - catastrophic loss for Lipscomb, who needs Liberty to be as strong as possible to maintain any at-large hope.  Contrast the A-Sun at-large candidate with the SoCon one.  SoCon is having a big season, top 10 conference.  A-Fun isn't good, at all, behind the top two.  Wofford will benefit, Lipscomb will be punished

@Houston 71, USF 59
@Temple 84, Tulsa 73
Memphis 88, @Wichita St 85

@Texas Tech 91, Kansas 62 - goddammit Kansas.  Back to the 3 line you go.  Bigger news is TTU adding a key piece to their resume, easier to justify them on the 3 line now
@TCU 75, Iowa St 72 - TCU was slipping a little too close to the bubble; this should mitigate any concern
@Kansas St 85, Oklahoma St 46
@Oklahoma 69, Texas 67 - UT's 12th loss.  The raw accumulation of losses is a problem, but in this current bubble climate, I have to imagine both teams are safe at the moment
@Baylor 82, WVU 75

@Marquette 76, Providence 58
@Creighton 82, Georgetown 69 - bubble teams win these games sometimes.  Georgetown doesn't appear ready for that yet
@St John's 78, Seton Hall 70 - in a bubble vs. bubble battle, when the home team wins, I usually consider it status quo for both teams going forward.  Won't change either's outlook after this one

Purdue 75, @Nebraska 72
Wisconsin 69, @Northwestern 64
@Maryland 72, Ohio St 62 - it's a tough ask, but OSU probably needs to do something of substance in the next couple of weeks, just in case

James Madison 104, @Hofstra 99 - shame that the CAA has been a non-factor nationally this season

@Nevada 74, Fresno St 68
Utah St 78, @Boise St 71 (OT)

@Belmont 97, SIUE 75 - can we talk again about how Belmont and Murray St play only once this year?  Someone fire whoever is in charge of the OVC
@Murray St 103, SEMO 67

Oregon St 67, @USC 62 - let's go ahead and confront this real truth:  Oregon St is the 3rd best team in the Pac-12, and has a bubble case.  Remember, they have both ASU and Washington left, so they've got a legitimate business chance to improve this resume.  Not dead!
Utah 92, @Washington St 79
@UCLA 90, Oregon 83 - on the other hand, this is probably the end of Oregon's chances.  Although they have the same schedule OSU does
@Washington 64, Colorado 55

@Kentucky 80, Auburn 53 - UK acting like a 1 seed
@LSU 82, Tennessee 80 (OT) - hey, remember a couple weeks ago when I said LSU was overrated?
@Ole Miss 72, Georgia 71
@Florida 64, Missouri 60
@Alabama 68, Vandy 61
@Mississippi St 76, South Carolina 61 - okay, we can probably safely discard USC now

Wofford 72, @Furman 64 - probably the end of Furman's hopes.  All at-large hopes are on Wofford now...and if you ask me, they've done enough.  They do have 2 road cupcakes to go, but if they handle them...they better be in no matter what.  Running the table in the #10 conference, 7 Q1/Q2 wins.  I don't care, put them in the damn field no matter what

@Gonzaga 102, BYU 68
St Mary's 66, @San Diego 46 - I guess St Mary's is alive on the bubble, but I'm not seeing much of a case.  They do have a Gonzaga game in hand next week, so it's not impossible
@Santa Clara 68, San Francisco 65 - ok, now it's really, really over

2/23 BRACKET

The seeds are already outdated, but the bracketing procedure isn't, so I went ahead.  Here's what it'd look like.

EAST 33
@Columbia
1) Duke vs. 16) St Francis(PA)/Norfolk St
8) Auburn vs. 9) TCU
@Salt Lake City
4) LSU vs. 13) Liberty
5) Texas Tech vs. 12) New Mexico St
@Des Moines
3) Michigan vs. 14) South Dakota St
6) Mississippi St vs. 11) Arizona St
@Tulsa
2) Kansas vs. 15) Texas St
7) Washington vs. 10) Ohio St

WEST 35
@Salt Lake City
1) Gonzaga vs. 16) Sam Houston St
8) Baylor vs. 9) Wofford
@Jacksonville
4) Florida St vs. 13) Hofstra
5) Maryland vs. 12) Alabama/Central Florida
@Hartford
3) Purdue vs. 14) Vermont
6) Villanova vs. 11) Florida
@Columbus
2) Kentucky vs. 15) Northern Kentucky
7) Virginia Tech vs. 10) VCU

MIDWEST 32
@Columbia
1) Tennessee vs. 16) Bucknell
8) Syracuse vs. 9) Texas
@San Jose
4) Nevada vs. 13) Old Dominion
5) Louisville vs. 12) Belmont
@Tulsa
3) Houston vs. 14) UC Irvine
6) Kansas St vs. 11) Minnesota
@Jacksonville
2) North Carolina vs. 15) Radford
7) Ole Miss vs. 10) Seton Hall

SOUTH 36
@Columbus
1) Virginia vs. 16) Canisius/Prairie View A&M
8) Cincinnati vs. 9) St John's
@San Jose
4) Iowa St vs. 13) Yale
5) Wisconsin vs. 12) North Carolina St/Utah St
@Hartford
3) Marquette vs. 14) Loyola(Chi)
6) Iowa vs. 11) Temple
@Des Moines
2) Michigan St vs. 15) Montana
7) Buffalo vs. 10) Oklahoma

2/22 recap

Skipped these last night for other posts, so let's dive in

@Iowa 76, Indiana 70 (OT) - you know, if I really, really wanted to, I could still make the argument that Indiana is on the bubble
@Buffalo 80, Kent St 57
@Ohio 92, Bowling Green 87 (OT) - oh wow, didn't even see that one.  That's a really stupid loss, and Buffalo does go back to the top of the MAC alone
Davidson 75, @Rhode Island 66

2/23 S-CURVE

I don't know, you tell me what the hell to do with the bubble.

I'm putting Buffalo back in as MAC leader instead of Bowling Green.  Want to maximize the bubble pain this time around.

Almost took Tennessee off the 1 line.  Resume doesn't hold up, but their schedule picks up steam soon, so I'll wait and see.

The 1 line:  Duke, Virginia, Tennessee, Gonzaga
The 2 line:  Kentucky, North Carolina, Michigan St, Kansas
The 3 line:  Michigan, Houston, Marquette, Purdue
The 4 line:  Nevada, Florida St, LSU, Iowa St
The 5 line:  Wisconsin, Texas Tech, Louisville, Maryland
The 6 line:  Kansas St, Mississippi St, Villanova, Iowa
The 7 line:  Virginia Tech, Buffalo, Washington, Ole Miss
The 8 line:  Auburn, Cincinnati, Baylor, Syracuse
The 9 line:  St John's, Texas, TCU, Wofford
The 10 line:  Ohio St, VCU, Oklahoma, Seton Hall
The 11 line:  Arizona St, Minnesota, Florida, Temple
The 12 line:  Alabama, Central Florida, North Carolina St, Utah St, Belmont, New Mexico St
The 13 line:  Hofstra, Liberty, Yale, Old Dominion
The 14 line:  Vermont, UC Irvine, South Dakota St, Loyola(Chi)
The 15 line:  Texas St, Northern Kentucky, Montana, Radford
The 16 line:  Bucknell, Sam Houston St, Canisius, St Francis(PA), Norfolk St, Prairie View A&M

Next 4 in:
Arizona St
Minnesota
Florida
Temple

Last 4 in:
Alabama
Central Florida
North Carolina St
Utah St

Last 4 out:
Butler
Lipscomb
Furman
Georgetown

Next 4 out:
Clemson
St Mary's
UNC Greensboro
Providence

Bubble inception:
South Carolina
Nebraska
Oregon
San Francisco
Creighton
Arizona
BYU
Indiana
Davidson
Xavier
Dayton
Memphis
Oregon St
Davidson
South Florida
East Tennessee St

Bubble watch: everyone else

Buffalo (23-3) (12-2) NET 17 SoS 71
Vital signs:  12-3 R/N, non-con SoS 92, 3-1 vs. Q1, 3-1 vs. Q2, avg win 156
Signature wins:  @Syracuse, N-San Fran, swept Toledo
Bad losses:  @NIU, @BGU?

Not completely out of the bubble woods yet, but they’ll be fine.

Wofford (20-4) (15-0) NET 24 SoS 154
Vital signs:  8-3 R/N, non-con SoS 134, 2-4 vs. Q1, 4-0 vs. Q2, avg win 200
Signature wins:  swept UNCG, Furman, @South Carolina
Bad losses:  none

4 losses to UNC, Kansas, Miss St, and Oklahoma.  I’d love to see where they could be if they could just flip one of those.  As is, they’re running the table in the #10 conference.  I just don’t see how that can be denied.  The overall strength of the SoCon is absolutely paying off this year, because it’s propelling Wofford (and others!) into at-large talk.  8 road wins is a bit low for a mid-major; but they’ve got 3 more chances coming.

Furman (19-5) (11-4) NET 45 SoS 233
Vital signs:  9-4 R/N, non-con SoS 289, 1-4 vs. Q1, 3-0 vs. Q2, avg win 227
Signature wins:  @Nova, UNCG, ETSU
Bad losses:  Samford

I so badly want to make the case, but that SoS makes it tough.  3 of the losses were roadies to the other top teams in the SoCon.  So those aren’t bad losses, but at-large teams probably have to get at least one of those.  I just don’t think I can justify them making it right now.

UNC Greensboro (21-5) (12-3) NET 60 SoS 150
Vital signs:  10-4 R/N, non-con SoS 155, 1-5 vs. Q1, 1-0 vs. Q2, avg win 230
Signature wins:  @ETSU, Furman, Radford
Bad losses:  @Furman?

Listing them out of respect, but it’s probably over for them.

East Tennessee St (20-7) (12-4) NET 68 SoS 188
Vital signs:  10-5 R/N, non-con SoS 264, 0-4 vs. Q1, 2-3 vs. Q2, avg win 231
Signature wins:  Furman, @Ga Southern
Bad losses:  @Georgia St

Nope.  Respect, though.

Lipscomb (19-6) (12-2) NET 47 SoS 236
Vital signs:  10-4 R/N, non-con SoS 74, 2-3 vs. Q1, 1-2 vs. Q2, avg win 235
Signature wins:  @TCU, @Liberty, Vermont?
Bad losses:  @FGCU, Liberty at home?

Actually did some work in the non-con, but man.  Would love to make the case, but the SoS makes it tough.  And 6 losses is 1 or 2 too many, I think.

Liberty (20-5) (12-1) NET 55 SoS 304
Vital signs:  10-4 R/N, non-con SoS 242, 1-1 vs. Q1, 1-3 vs. Q2, avg win 255
Signature wins:  @Lipscomb, @UCLA
Bad losses:  N-Austin Peay

How is their NET so high?

Belmont (21-4) (13-2) NET 53 SoS 215
Vital signs:  10-3 R/N, non-con SoS 95, 2-1 vs. Q1, 3-1 vs. Q2, avg win 228
Signature wins:  swept Lipscomb, @Murray St, @UCLA
Bad losses:  Jax St, @Green Bay

Actually with 5 Q1/2 wins, giving them a real chance.  Those Q3 losses hurt though.  Decent non-con SoS.  All in all, a reasonable chance.  For some reason, only get to play Murray St once in the regular season.  Resume killer.  Every Q2 game counts.

Murray St (20-4) (13-2) NET 59 SoS 273
Vital signs:  9-3 R/N, non-con SoS 228, 0-2 vs. Q1, 1-2 vs. Q2, avg win 262
Signature wins:  @Austin Peay
Bad losses:  @Jax St

Just to show you guys why they are irrelevant.  16 Q4 wins.  16!

New Mexico St (21-4) (11-1) NET 58 SoS 124
Vital signs:  9-3 R/N, non-con SoS 200, 0-1 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2, avg win 188
Signature wins:  swept Grand Canyon and Utah Valley?
Bad losses:  @Cal Baptist

Worth a cursory look given their record and NET, but nothing more.

Hofstra (22-5) (13-2) NET 62 SoS 221
Vital signs:  8-5 R/N, non-con SoS 187, 0-2 vs. Q1, 1-1 vs. Q2, avg win 232
Signature wins:  swept Charleston, Northeastern?
Bad losses:  @UNCW

See NMSU comment.

Bubble watch: B1G

Lockbox:

Michigan St (22-5) (13-3) NET 8 SoS 39
Vital signs:  9-4 R/N, non-con SoS 147, 10-3 vs. Q1, 3-2 vs. Q2, avg win 97
Signature wins:  Purdue, @Wisky, Maryland
Bad losses:  @Illinois, Indiana

The 10 Q1 wins is a bit inflated, as @Nebraska and PSU are mixed in there.  With games against Michigan in hand, plenty of chances to move up to the 1 line coming.

Michigan (24-3) (13-3) NET 7 SoS 80
Vital signs:  8-3 R/N, non-con SoS 183, 7-3 vs. Q1, 8-0 vs. Q2, avg win 115
Signature wins:  UNC, Purdue, Wisky
Bad losses:  @Penn St

Plenty of signature wins, all metrics outside of non-con SoS in great shape.  Still though, competition is tight on the 1 line, so wins over Michigan St will be required for those purposes.

Purdue (19-7) (12-3) NET 11 SoS 7
Vital signs:  6-7 R/N, non-con SoS 48, 7-6 vs. Q1, 6-0 vs. Q2, avg win 93
Signature wins:  Michigan St, @Wisky, Maryland
Bad losses:  N-Notre Dame

Only issue of note is perhaps losing too many Q1 games to be a 2 or 3 seed.  Plenty of quantity in their profile.  Their pretty marginal non-con results are their undoing on that front.

Wisconsin (18-8) (10-5) NET 12 SoS 11
Vital signs:  8-5 R/N, non-con SoS 50, 7-6 vs. Q1, 3-2 vs. Q2, avg win 115
Signature wins:  Michigan, Maryland, @Iowa
Bad losses:  @WKU, Minny?

An obviously safe resume that perhaps lacks some high-end quality.  Tough to see this sneaking into the top 4 lines.

Maryland (20-7) (11-5) NET 23 SoS 16
Vital signs:  7-5 R/N, non-con SoS 45, 6-5 vs. Q1, 5-2 vs. Q2, avg win 124
Signature wins:  Purdue, Wisky, @Iowa
Bad losses:  N-Illinois, SHU?

I have no idea how their non-con SoS is 45.  Looks unimpressive on the surface.  That observation aside, their resume is fine.  Mostly kept their nose clean, and has done solid road/neutral work.

Iowa (21-6) (10-6) NET 30 SoS 85
Vital signs:  7-3 R/N, non-con SoS 274, 4-6 vs. Q1, 7-0 vs. Q2, avg win 132
Signature wins:  Michigan, Iowa St, Ohio St
Bad losses:  @Minny is the worst

That non-con SoS is a fatal flaw that’s going to keep them from the Maryland/Wisconsin tier.  Still an obviously fine resume outside of that one blemish.

Bubble:

Ohio St (17-9) (7-8) NET 43 SoS 61
Vital signs:  6-4 R/N, non-con SoS 139, 4-6 vs. Q1, 3-2 vs. Q2, avg win 137
Signature wins:  @Cincy, Minny?  @Nebraska?
Bad losses:  Illinois, @Rutgers

The bottom line is they’ve whiffed against every team ahead of them in the standings.  Ouch.  A decent number of Q1/Q2 wins, but there’s some empty calories in there.  It is hardly safe.  But, Maryland, Iowa, Purdue, Wisky are still on the board.  It’s time for them to add some quality wins to the ledger.

Minnesota (17-10) (7-9) NET 52 SoS 40
Vital signs:  5-7 R/N, non-con SoS 169, 3-8 vs. Q1, 5-2 vs. Q2, avg win 127
Signature wins:  @Wisky, N-Washington, Iowa
Bad losses:  @BC, @Illinois

1 true road win.  Sure, it’s Wisky.  But 1 true road win.  That’s a black mark.  Most of the other metrics are at least tolerable or better.  Good news though:  they get to play Rutgers and Northwestern on the road next.  If they show some general competency, I think they’ll be fine.

Nebraska (14-12) (5-11) NET 46 SoS 92
Vital signs:  4-8 R/N, non-con SoS 209, 2-9 vs. Q1, 5-3 vs. Q2, avg win 131
Signature wins:  @Clemson, Minny?  @Indiana?
Bad losses:  @Rutgers, @Illinois

Nah.

Indiana (13-14) (4-12) NET 57 SoS 33
Vital signs:  3-9 R/N, non-con SoS 162, 5-10 vs. Q1, 0-4 vs. Q2, avg win 147
Signature wins:  @Michigan St, Louisville, Marquette
Bad losses:  @Northwestern and Rutgers, etc

It’s amazing I can even semi-legitimately justify listing a team below .500, but 5 Q1 wins make it mandatory.  But whatever.

Bubble watch: American/A-10

Lockbox:

Houston (25-1) (12-1) NET 4 SoS 62
Vital signs:  8-1 R/N, non-con SoS 141, 3-1 vs. Q1, 10-0 vs. Q2, avg win 140
Signature wins:  LSU, Cincy, @UCF?
Bad losses:  @Temple I suppose

Not much to say.  Modest SoS, win all your games, no real way to seed them on the top 2 lines given the competition.

Bubble:

Cincinnati (22-4) (11-2) NET 25 SoS 70
Vital signs:  7-3 R/N, non-con SoS 138, 3-2 vs. Q1, 3-1 vs. Q2, avg win 149
Signature wins:  N-Ole Miss, @Temple, UCF?
Bad losses:  @ECU

The lack of high-end win probably keep them away from the lockbox.  Losses in the noncom to Miss St and Ohio St plus a down AAC will do that to you.  They’ve been unlucky with their non-con SoS, it really should’ve been better when you look at the names on it.  They’ll be fine, and do close with a strong schedule.

Central Florida (19-6) (9-4) NET 39 SoS 73
Vital signs:  6-4 R/N, non-con SoS 151, 0-3 vs. Q1, 5-2 vs. Q2, avg win 153
Signature wins:  Alabama, Temple, Memphis?
Bad losses:  FAU, @Mizzou and Wichita?

The lack of signature win is disconcerting.  They need more.  Alas, they still have Houston and Cincy once more, and they probably need to win one of those to make a realistic bubble case.  And heck, @Temple represents a third signature win chance.  Everything is ahead of them.

VCU (20-6) (11-2) NET 37 SoS 32
Vital signs:  7-5 R/N, non-con SoS 2, 2-3 vs. Q1, 3-1 vs. Q2, avg win 151
Signature wins:  @Texas, @Dayton, N-Temple
Bad losses:  Charleston?  @URI?

Committee has a SoS fetish, so this resume has a real chance.  They won enough against the quality competition they did play, so I think a reasonable argument can be made.  All their Q1 games were road/neutral, so I think that 2-3 mark is actually good.  In this bubble climate, this could be good enough.  The bad news:  they’re out of chances to enhance the resume in the regular season.

Temple (19-7) (9-4) NET 54 SoS 67
Vital signs:  9-5 R/N, non-con SoS 222, 1-5 vs. Q1, 5-1 vs. Q2, avg win 155
Signature wins:  Houston, Memphis?  N-Davidson?
Bad losses:  Penn, @Tulsa?

How much can one signature win carry you?  I’m not sure.  Temple’s non-con SoS is marginal, which doesn’t give them much to work with.  Schedule isn’t their friend either, as UCF and maybe @Memphis are their only reasonable chances to enhance this resume.

Memphis (16-11) (8-6) NET 63 SoS 45
Vital signs:  3-9 R/N, non-con SoS 38, 0-7 vs. Q1, 2-3 vs. Q2, avg win 200
Signature wins:  UCF, Yale?  South Dakota St?
Bad losses:  N-Charleston, N-Oklahoma St?

A courtesy look as they’ve emerged from the rest of the pack in the AAC.  They still have Temple and Cincy left; we’ll talk if they win both.

Dayton (17-9) (9-4) NET 74 SoS 89
Vital signs:  6-6 R/N, non-con SoS 90, 2-5 vs. Q1, 0-3 vs. Q2, avg win 189
Signature wins:  N-Butler, Davidson, uhhhh
Bad losses:  George Mason, @StL?

Can’t really justify them, and they’re out of resume-enhancing chances.

Davidson (19-7) (11-3) NET 70 SoS 115
Vital signs:  8-6 R/N, non-con SoS 117, 0-2 vs. Q1, 4-2 vs. Q2, avg win 168
Signature wins:  VCU, N-Wichita?  N-Northeastern?
Bad losses:  @UMass, @Wake, @St Joe’s

No depth of quality win behind VCU, means this resume is close to dead on arrival.

South Florida (17-8) (7-6) NET 76 SoS 147
Vital signs:  4-5 R/N, non-con SoS 330, 0-4 vs. Q1, 2-3 vs. Q2, avg win 213
Signature wins:  Memphis, @SMU, UConn?
Bad losses:  Citadel, @Tulsa

No.

Bubble watch: west coast basketball sucks

Lockbox:

Gonzaga (26-2) (13-0) NET 1 SoS 48

Vital signs:  10-2 R/N, non-con SoS 68, 4-2 vs. Q1, 6-0 vs. Q2, avg win 150

Signature wins:  N-Duke, Washington, @San Fran?

Bad losses:  none

They do have a bit of an issue with signature wins.  No depth.  However, they’ve kept a clean sheet (losses to Tennessee and UNC).  I can see it costing them a 1 seed if they get into a head-to-head battle with UT or UNC for that spot, but the 2 seed out west would be just fine.

Nevada (24-2) (11-2) NET 22 SoS 143

Vital signs:  12-2 R/N, non-con SoS 56, 0-0 vs. Q1, 8-1 vs. Q2, avg win 156

Signature wins:  Utah St, N-ASU?  @USC?

Bad losses:  @New Mexico, @SDSU?

Yikes.  No Q1 games.  @Utah St will fix that, but man it’s tough to seed them up high when that big ‘ol 0 is hanging on their resume.

Bubble:

Washington (21-5) (12-1) NET 29 SoS 53

Vital signs:  8-5 R/N, non-con SoS 19, 2-4 vs. Q1, 4-1 vs. Q2, avg win 143

Signature wins:  uh.  @Oregon?  @Colorado?

Bad losses:  N-Minny is the worst

Go look at the signature win category.  Those are the Q1 wins.  @Oregon St might be the next best win.  Good God.  This is not a strong resume, folks.  The good news is the SoS holds up, but how does this resume differ from a resume of a mid-major?

Arizona St (18-8) (9-5) NET 66 SoS 68

Vital signs:  6-5 R/N, non-con SoS 46, 4-2 vs. Q1, 5-3 vs. Q2, avg win 125

Signature wins:  Kansas, N-Miss St, Washington

Bad losses:  Utah, Wazzu, Princeton, @Vandy, @Georgia…good God

Their 4 Q1 wins are more or less legit.  So they’re in decent shape, maybe.  But there’s a lot of marginal losses mixed in.  They do have @Oregon schools and @Arizona coming, which do represent borderline Q1 chances.  That also means they have ample chance to lose a bunch and eject from the bubble conversation.

Utah St (20-6) (11-3) NET 36 SoS 123

Vital signs:  9-5 R/N, non-con SoS 23, 1-2 vs. Q1, 2-3 vs. Q2, avg win 212

Signature wins:  N-St Mary’s, @Fresno? @UCI?

Bad losses:  Fresno at home I suppose

It’s a bit deceptive non-con SoS, IMO.  Still, most of their metrics are in decent shape to the point where a win over Nevada officially makes things very interesting.

Oregon St (16-9) (8-5) NET 85 SoS 118
Vital signs:  6-5 R/N, non-con SoS 228, 2-2 vs. Q1, 3-4 vs. Q2, avg win 166
Signature wins:  @Oregon, @Colorado, N-ODU?
Bad losses:  Kent St, Stanford, A&M

This is the 3rd best Pac-12 offering?

Oregon (15-11) (6-7) NET 72 SoS 64
Vital signs:  4-7 R/N, non-con SoS 47, 1-6 vs. Q1, 2-2 vs. Q2, avg win 169
Signature wins:  N-Syracuse, @Arizona, @Utah?
Bad losses:  Texas Southern, UCLA, Oregon St?

Okay, maybe?  But not really.

Arizona (15-12) (6-8) NET 88 SoS 86

Vital signs:  4-8 R/N, non-con SoS 55, 1-6 vs. Q1, 3-5 vs. Q2, avg win 165

Signature wins:  N-Iowa St, @UConn?  Colorado?  Jeez

Bad losses:  Wazzu, @a bunch of Pac-12 teams

Sigh.

St Mary's (18-10) (9-4) NET 40 SoS 45
Vital signs:  5-8 R/N, non-con SoS 73, 1-5 vs. Q1, 1-2 vs. Q2, avg win 182
Signature wins:  @NMSU, San Fran, BYU?
Bad losses:  Harvard, @Pepperdine, UCI?

Meh.  Maybe if NET matters.

BYU (18-11) (10-4) NET 82 SoS 65

Vital signs:  6-8 R/N, non-con SoS 59, 0-6 vs. Q1, 3-2 vs. Q2, avg win 199

Signature wins:  Utah St, St Mary's, @San Diego?  yikes

Bad losses:  @Weber St, @Illinois St, N-UNLV

No.

San Francisco (20-6) (9-4) NET 48 SoS 141
Vital signs:  7-5 R/N, non-con SoS 275, 0-4 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2, avg win 209
Signature wins:  St Mary's, swept BYU
Bad losses:  @UCSB, @San Diego?

At least avoided the truly bad loss, but still.

NIT bubble teams:  Utah, USC, Colorado, Fresno St, San Diego St

Bubble watch: Big East

Lockbox:

Marquette (22-4) (11-2) NET 19 SoS 42

Vital signs:  6-3 R/N, non-con SoS 97, 8-3 vs. Q1, 5-1 vs. Q2, avg win 123

Signature wins:  Wisky, N-Louisville, Nova

Bad losses:  @Indiana probably, St John’s?

Ton of high-end wins in the non-con (add KSU and Buffalo to that list above).  They are weighted down a bit by a few cupcakes, which will cost them any reasonable hope at the 1 line, and maybe even the 2 line.  Otherwise, no nits to pick with this resume.

Villanova (20-7) (11-3) NET 27 SoS 17

Vital signs:  9-5 R/N, non-con SoS 20, 4-5 vs. Q1, 9-2 vs. Q2, avg win 114

Signature wins:  N-FSU, @Butler, St John’s?

Bad losses:  @Penn, Furman?

For a name team, that’s sure a marginal list of quality wins.  They’re not in danger or anything, but boy that’s flimsy.

Bubble:

St John’s (19-8) (7-7) NET 49 SoS 61

Vital signs:  7-5 R/N, non-con SoS 209, 6-5 vs. Q1, 3-2 vs. Q2, avg win 151

Signature wins:  swept Marquette, Nova, N-VCU

Bad losses:  DePaul, Provi, G’town?

Tough to ignore 6 Q1 wins and 3 high-end wins.  Also tough to ignore a modest SoS and other modest metrics, plus a couple meh losses.  They should be fine (the road/neutral record should have some value) though.  They’re out of chances for impact wins, which is fine; they just need to keep their nose clean anyways.

Seton Hall (16-10) (7-7) NET 64 SoS 51

Vital signs:  7-6 R/N, non-con SoS 77, 3-6 vs. Q1, 8-1 vs. Q2, avg win 113

Signature wins:  N-Kentucky, @Maryland, St John’s?

Bad losses:  St Louis, Xavier, DePaul

3 Q3 losses are very damaging at this point, and they’ve got an honorary Q3 loss at DePaul as well.  This resume is made entirely by two signature wins in the non-con.  They matter, but the marginal results elsewhere matter too.  Naturally, their final two home games are Marquette and Villanova.  Can they lose both and be safe?  It’d be dicey.  In fact, the schedule is unfavorable in terms of potential wins, going 2-2 would be good work.

Butler (15-12) (6-8) NET 50 SoS 21

Vital signs:  4-9 R/N, non-con SoS 63, 2-7 vs. Q1, 5-5 vs. Q2, avg win 115

Signature wins:  N-Florida, Ole Miss, St John’s

Bad losses:  @St Louis, @Xavier?  N-Indiana

It’s getting tougher and tougher to support the resume.  2-7 true road record.  Pretty good SoS numbers, missed most chances at signature wins though.  It’s an underwhelming mark.  They need quality wins and have one chance left, at Nova.  I’m not optimistic.

Georgetown (16-10) (6-7) NET 69 SoS 75

Vital signs:  5-5 R/N, non-con SoS 234, 4-4 vs. Q1, 4-4 vs. Q2, avg win 148

Signature wins:  Nova, @St John’s, @Butler

Bad losses:  N-LMU, SMU, @Xavier?

They’ve done just enough to squeak onto the board, but there’s not a lot of heft in the resume behind the Nova win.  They still have Marquette on the road in a last ditch effort to make a run at the bubble.

Xavier (14-13) (6-8) NET 89 SoS 56

Vital signs:  4-8 R/N, non-con SoS 148, 2-8 vs. Q1, 5-3 vs. Q2, avg win 139

Signature wins:  @SHU, @Provi, Butler?

Bad losses:  N-SDSU, DePaul, @Mizzou

Providence (15-12) (5-9) NET 73 SoS 55

Vital signs:  5-7 R/N, non-con SoS 164, 2-6 vs. Q1, 5-4 vs. Q2, avg win 151

Signature wins:  @Texas, swept St John's, SHU

Bad losses:  Xavier, UMass, @DePaul

Creighton (13-13) (5-9) NET 56 SoS 14
Vital signs:  6-7 R/N, non-con SoS 20, 3-9 vs. Q1, 3-4 vs. Q2, avg win 125
Signature wins:  N-Clemson, Butler, @Georgetown?
Bad losses:  @Xavier

I list the last 3 as safeguards.  Long road for any of them to have a real chance, but in this bubble climate, they still have to be listed.

Bubble watch: Big 12

Kansas (20-6) (9-4) NET 15 SoS 1
Vital signs:  5-6 R/N, non-con SoS 1, 9-5 vs. Q1, 4-1 vs. Q2, avg win 65
Signature wins:  N-Tennessee, N-Michigan St, N-Marquette, and plenty others
Bad losses: @WVU, @ASU

It’s impossible to describe how obscene that average win number is.  That matters so much.  65!!!!!!!  The non-con SoS is its usual strong self, and they clearly have enough signature wins.  However, 2 road wins.  No non-con road wins, and they seem to have more or less split their conference road games over quality teams.  I just don’t know how you don’t seed the #1 SoS and an average win of 65 anywhere below the 2 line.

Iowa St (19-7) (8-5) NET 14 SoS 24
Vital signs:  8-4 R/N, non-con SoS 95, 5-4 vs. Q1, 3-3 vs. Q2, avg win 129
Signature wins:  @TTU, Kansas, @KSU
Bad losses:  N-Arizona

They’ve gotten loose a couple times at home in conference, losing to Baylor and TCU and missing a golden chance at a top 2 seed.  As is, a reasonable case for a 4 seed or better, without much chance to improve too much.  All metrics in good shape.

Texas Tech (21-5) (9-4) NET 10 SoS 49
Vital signs:  7-4 R/N, non-con SoS 158, 4-5 vs. Q2, 8-0 vs. Q2, avg win 140
Signature wins:  KSU, @Texas, @OU?
Bad losses:  nope

A little bit of the classic case of beating everyone you should, and losing to everyone you should.  They’ll have chances to add quality wins and really jump up the seed line…or they’ll lose and take their 7 seed. 

Kansas St (20-6) (10-3) NET 28 SoS 35
Vital signs:  9-4 R/N, non-con SoS 132, 6-3 vs. Q1, 4-3 vs. Q2, avg win 116
Signature wins:  TTU, @ISU, Kansas
Bad losses:  @Tulsa and @A&M

You’d expect more strength from a Big 12 resume…truth is their non-con is pretty light, without any real impact wins.  This will limit the seed upside, but several quality road wins in conference play matter as well.

Bubble:

Baylor (17-9) (8-5) NET 33 SoS 34
Vital signs:  6-5 R/N, non-con SoS 196, 4-6 vs. Q1, 7-1 vs. Q2, avg win 123
Signature wins:  TTU, swept ISU and Oklahoma
Bad losses:  SFA, Texas Southern

That’s a pair of Q4 losses that keeps this short of a lock.  Have shown they’re good enough to beat decent teams at a decent clip, and just need to keep their wheels on the road from here on in.

TCU (17-9) (5-8) NET 41 SoS 33
Vital signs:  6-6 R/N, non-con SoS 86, 1-6 vs. Q1, 5-3 vs. Q2, avg win 126
Signature wins:  @ISU, Baylor, Texas?
Bad losses:  @OSU, Lipscomb?

Hmm.  Not as good as I would’ve though.  Only two true road wins is an issue.  There’s just this feeling this resume is missing something.  Home chances against KSU, TTU, and ISU remain.  There you go.  Gotta get one for sure, and two wouldn’t hurt.

Texas (15-11) (7-6) NET 35 SoS 9
Vital signs:  4-6 R/N, non-con SoS 14, 4-6 vs. Q1, 4-4 vs. Q2, avg win 100
Signature wins:  N-UNC, Purdue, Kansas
Bad losses:  Radford, @Georgia, Providence

In the end, the combination of bad losses and good wins are more valued than not having either bad losses or good wins, so they might be okay.  Especially given that average win and SoS.  The problem is that the schedule is filled with pitfalls – home games against better teams, road games at fellow bubble teams.  They’re going to move way up the bracket, or off the bracket entirely.  There isn’t much middle ground to be had.

Oklahoma (16-10) (4-9) NET 38 SoS 13
Vital signs:  8-6 R/N, non-con SoS 22, 3-8 vs. Q1, 5-2 vs. Q2, avg win 86
Signature wins:  Wofford, N-Florida, swept TCU
Bad losses:  @WVU

Their schedule is a mathematical impossibility.  Average win of 86 is very high, and almost incredulous when you compare that with the actual list of wins.  They have no Q4 games.  None!  That’s why the average win is so ridiculous.  Of course, there’s something to be said for winning all those games.  There’s also something to be said for not winning your fair share of conference games.

Bubble watch: SEC

Lockbox:

Tennessee (23-2) (12-1) NET 6 SoS 98
Vital signs:  8-2 R/N, non-con SoS 108, 4-2 vs. Q1, 7-0 vs. Q2, avg win 117
Signature wins:  N-Gonzaga, N-Louisville, swept Florida?
Bad losses:  nope

The sneaky thing about the resume is the extreme lack of depth of wins.  Florida is pretty definitely their third best win, which is very light for a SEC team.  Honestly, they got screwed by the schedule.  They only get Auburn, Ole Miss, Mississippi St, and LSU once.  That is a brutal break for a team needing quality wins for their case for a 1 seed.  The good news is they get all four of them, and Kentucky, as their final five games.  That’s kind of a brutal schedule, but it will definitely make or break their case for a 1 seed.

Kentucky (22-4) (11-2) NET 5 SoS 31
Vital signs:  8-3 R/N, non-con SoS 44, 8-3 vs. Q1, 4-1 vs. Q2, avg win 112
Signature wins:  Tennessee, N-UNC, Kansas, @Louisville
Bad losses:  N-Seton Hall probably

Not much wrong with the resume, just feels a half-step behind the other contenders.  Except for Tennessee, which we covered above.

LSU (21-5) (11-2) NET 16 SoS 20
Vital signs:  9-3 R/N, non-con SoS 9, 6-2 vs. Q1, 7-3 vs. Q2, avg win 104
Signature wins:  @Kentucky, @MSU, Auburn
Bad losses:  N-Oklahoma St, Arkansas?

A very good non-con SoS buttressed by very good teams (Furman, UNCG, Memphis, et al) without playing too many cupcakes.  So don’t get carried away by the SoS.  But they are 7-1 in true road games, so I can’t dock them too much.

Mississippi St (19-7) (7-6) NET 26 SoS 16
Vital signs:  8-4 R/N, non-con SoS 24, 8-4 vs. Q1, 4-3 vs. Q2, avg win 111
Signature wins:  Auburn, Cincy, @Ole Miss
Bad losses:  @South Carolina, N-ASU?

Sure, 8 Q1 wins is a bit inflated by the presence of some road/neutral wins (Arky, Dayton, St Mary’s, Clemson).  But still, it counts.  All in all, they’re fine as long as they don’t lose stupid games.  To be fair, they’ll have ample opportunity to do just that, though.

Bubble:

Auburn (17-8) (7-6) NET 20 SoS 37
Vital signs:  5-6 R/N, non-con SoS 40, 1-6 vs. Q1, 9-2 vs. Q2, avg win 128
Signature wins:  Washington, Florida, Alabama
Bad losses:  @South Carolina probably

I really do wish they had a better signature win to make things easier on me.  Their other metrics are in good shape, so it’s just about finding a signature win.  Kentucky and Tennessee remain.  Heck, Mississippi St remains too.  Definitely need to get one, just to get something better on the board.

Ole Miss (18-8) (8-5) NET 34 SoS 86
Vital signs:  8-5 R/N, non-con SoS 166, 4-7 vs. Q1, 3-1 vs. Q2, avg win 148
Signature wins:  swept Auburn, @MSU, N-Baylor
Bad losses:  @South Carolina

They haven’t even gotten to play UT or UK yet, so there’s still a fair amount of variance in where this resume can end up.  It’s another case where they’re probably fine, but they still can’t afford the disaster scenario yet.

Florida (15-11) (7-6) NET 31 SoS 29
Vital signs:  7-7 R/N, non-con SoS 123, 3-10 vs. Q1, 3-0 vs. Q2, avg win 121
Signature wins:  @LSU, @Alabama, @Arky?
Bad losses:  South Carolina

Man, so many missed chances.  But we’ll be fair, there’s a lot of road games in there.  And their numbers aren’t too bad overall.  They’ve got 3 cupcakes in a row coming up, and they would be very well advised to handle their business.  Also have LSU and Kentucky left, I’d advise a split in those games.

Alabama (15-11) (6-7) NET 51 SoS 27
Vital signs:  6-8 R/N, non-con SoS 60, 2-6 vs. Q1, 7-3 vs. Q2, avg win 116
Signature wins:  Kentucky, MSU, Ole Miss
Bad losses:  Georgia St, A&M

Their best road win is Missouri.  That’s an obvious hole in an otherwise okay resume.  7 Q2 wins might save them.  This feels like a quintessential bubble resume.

South Carolina (13-12) (9-4) NET 81 SoS 23
Vital signs:  4-7 R/N, non-con SoS 101, 3-7 vs. Q1, 4-3 vs. Q2, avg win 124
Signature wins:  Auburn, MSU, @Florida
Bad losses:  @Wyoming, Stony Brook, @OkSt

7 Q1/2 wins, so I guess we have to list them.  But as you can tell, I'm not enthusiastic about it.  Most of their work has been ruining everyone else's bubble resume.

NIT bubble teams:  Arkansas

Bubble watch: ACC

Surprise capsules on a Friday!

Lockbox:

Duke (23-3) (11-2) NET 3 SoS 2
Vital signs:  10-1 R/N, non-con SoS 6, 7-2 vs. Q2, 7-1 vs. Q2, avg win 95
Signature wins:  swept UVa, N-Kentucky, @Louisvlle, N-TTU
Bad losses:  home to Syracuse is not great for a 1 seed

Nothing really keeping them away from #1 overall.  They’ve got some road games to get through, though.

Virginia (23-2) (11-2) NET 2 SoS 25
Vital signs:  11-1 R/N, non-con SoS 190, 8-2 vs. Q1, 5-0 vs. Q2, avg win 119
Signature wins:  @UNC, N-Wisky, swept VT
Bad losses:  none

If anything hurts, it’s that they’re locked out behind Duke in the rankings for obvious reasons, and the non-con SoS is middling.  That’s more of a product of bad teams, but UVa still has Wisky and Maryland in their pocket.  They still have Louisville twice, so there’s still a little work to do to protect their 1 seed.

North Carolina (21-5) (11-2) NET 9 SoS 5
Vital signs:  10-3 R/N, non-con SoS 11, 6-5 vs. Q1, 5-0 vs. Q2, avg win 113
Signature wins:  Gonzaga, @Duke, @Louisville
Bad losses:  N-Texas isn’t great I suppose

If there is a concern, it’s that the depth of quality win is slightly behind other teams who are competing for a spot on the top line.  Of course though, we’re picking nits and they’ll be seeded appropriately.

Florida St (21-5) (9-4) NET 21 SoS 54
Vital signs:  9-4 R/N, non-con SoS 95, 5-3 vs. Q1, 5-2 vs. Q2, avg win 127
Signature wins:  Purdue, N-LSU, Louisville
Bad losses:  @BC, @Pitt

Despite the very good road record, those are 2 marginal road losses that limit their seed upside.  A protected seed would be a reasonable outcome for this resume.

Louisville (18-9) (9-5) NET 18 SoS 4
Vital signs:  5-6 R/N, non-con SoS 8, 4-8 vs. Q1, 4-1 vs. Q2, avg win 127
Signature wins:  Michigan St, @UNC, @VT
Bad losses:  @Pitt, @Indiana now

The SoS will allow them to absorb some more resume damage without suffering too much.  4 wins in 12 Q1 games is a decent, but not great, number.  Still have Virginia twice, and I could see them sliding into the 6-8 seed range if they get swept.

Virginia Tech (20-6) (9-5) NET 13 SoS 81
Vital signs:  8-4 R/N, non-con SoS 238, 3-6 vs. Q1, 5-0 vs. Q2, avg win 162
Signature wins:  N-Purdue, N-Washington, @NCSU?
Bad losses:  @Penn St probably, @Clemson?

The litmus test for how much NET matters.  Sterling NET number, but some ominous vital signs.  Average win north of 160 and a very marginal non-con SoS are usually seed-killers.  Also of concern:  given the number of chances, the quality win ledger feels a bit light.  They have UVa, Duke, and @FSU left, so they have some time yet to really boost the resume.  It’s not impossible they lose all 3 and miss the tournament altogether.

Bubble:

Syracuse (18-8) (9-4) NET 42 SoS 28
Vital signs:  5-4 R/N, non-con SoS 46, 3-4 vs. Q1, 5-2 vs. Q2, avg win 123
Signature wins:  @Duke, Louisville, @OSU
Bad losses:  Georgia Tech, ODU at home?

They’ve shown that they can win enough against elite competition, and they’ve erased 2 marginal neutral site losses (Oregon, UConn) with a reasonable 5-2 road record in the ACC.  It would take some work to miss the tourney from here, but they have each of the Big 3 left on the schedule.  0-3 and they may start worrying.

North Carolina St (19-8) (7-7) NET 32 SoS 204
Vital signs:  5-5 R/N, non-con SoS 352, 1-7 vs. Q1, 6-0 vs. Q2, avg win 190
Signature wins:  Auburn, Syracuse, Clemson?
Bad losses:  @Wake

A couple hideous numbers.  Non-con SoS 352.  There are 353 teams.  Avg win is 190.  Yikes.  What’s kept them in is bad loss avoidance.  Every loss outside of @Wake has been to a top 20-ish team.  The big problem:  there’s only one such opportunity left, at FSU.  The committee will not like teams who fail to beat quality teams.  You gotta get one of them on the positive side of your ledger.  Sure, conference tourney can solve this problem, but that’s cutting it close.  A combination of no signature wins and horrible SoS is usually a death sentence.

Clemson (15-11) (5-8) NET 44 SoS 30
Vital signs:  4-8 R/N, non-con SoS 127, 1-8 vs. Q1, 3-3 vs. Q2, avg win 157
Signature wins:  VT, Lipscomb?  @South Carolina?
Bad losses:  @Miami, Nebraska?

Not a lot to work with on this resume.  Does have UNC and Syracuse at home left, so if they can add more quality wins to this, it’s not impossible.  But really this is optimistic at best.

NIT bubble teams:  Boston College, Notre Dame

2/21 recap

@Gonzaga 92, Pepperdine 64
San Francisco 77, @BYU 71 - this is a quality road win that's a bit too late, frankly
St Mary's 58, Pacific 32 - I see 3 pretty good solid NIT teams in this conference, if nothing else

Michigan 69, @Minnesota 60
@Cincinnati 60, UCF 55 - this won't hurt UCF....but they kinda needed help, and this ain't helping

@UNC Greensboro 79, Western Carolina 76 (OT)
@Belmont 99, Eastern Illinois 58 - Murray St also wins, they stay tied atop the OVC.  I do wonder the natural bias effect a shared conference championship would have on at-large selection.  Belmont is still viable, kinda.  Murray St isn't
@Hofstra 91, Towson 82 (2OT) - I can't take Hofstra seriously after this one, but jeez, with the rest of this bubble I still have to keep them around
@UMBC 65, Vermont 56 - I don't think Vermont was a viable at-large contender anyways, but this makes it official

@USC 66, Oregon 49
@UCLA 68, Oregon St 67 - about a week ago I thought Utah and the Oregon schools were closest to being the 3rd Pac-12 team....and now they're all in the tank.  Whatever
@Arizona 76, Cal 51

2/20 recap

North Carolina 88, @Duke 72
@Syracuse 69, Louisville 49 - UL is becoming an impossible team to seed
@NC State 89, BC 80 (OT) - good God, what a near disaster this was

Florida 82, @LSU 77 (OT) - a massive win, and I can't believe we're going to be talking about Florida probably from here on in.  Good side of the bubble now.  And a reason why we shouldn't have trusted LSU on the 3 line.
Mississippi St 68, @Georgia 67
@Auburn 79, Arkansas 56

@Michigan St 71, Rutgers 60
@Ohio St 63, Northwestern 49

@Marquette 79, Butler 69
@Georgetown 85, Villanova 73 - GU is probably 1 signature win away from getting all the way into the field.  In play.  Villanova might be spilling a couple seed lines though.  I've said before that the competition on the 4-7 lines is tight, and this will hurt a lot compared to what those other teams are doing
Xavier 70, @Seton Hall 69 - this is why the Big East can't have nice things this year
@Providence 78, St John's 59 - go to hell Big East

@San Diego St 65, Nevada 57 - that's the one.  The road loss to a good team that nonetheless wrecks the resume a bit.  It'll take a bit more to probably drop them outside the top 4 lines, but this likely caps their upside to a 3 seed
@Utah St 71, New Mexico 55

@Arizona St 80, Stanford 62
@Washington 62, Utah 45 - we're quickly moving towards a 2-bid Pac-12

@FGCU 67, Lipscomb 61 - that's the one.  Lipscomb absolutely had to keep a clean sheet in their Quad 3/4 games.  Now the path to an at-large bid practically has to be just one more loss to Liberty in a conference final.  Don't see any other path working well

2/19 recap

Kentucky 66, @Missouri 58
@Tennessee 58, Vanderbilt 46
@South Carolina 79, Ole Miss 64 - that's not an ideal spot to spend a loss
@Texas A&M 65, Alabama 56 - ditto.  But Alabama is in real, real danger now

Purdue 48, @Indiana 46 - Indiana is out of time
Maryland 66, @Iowa 65 - the battle for a 4/5 seed is very competitive, and road wins like this will stick out.  I'd argue though that the battle is very superficial and won't have much impact on the chances of those teams to advance
@Penn St 95, Nebraska 71 - welp

Florida St 77, @Clemson 64 - it's getting very dicey to make a case for Clemson at this point

Baylor 73, @Iowa St 69 - signature road win, that probably does more to hurt ISU than help Baylor.  BU is kind of on the fringes of joining the battle on the 5-6 lines, but this is very costly for ISU's hopes of holding onto a 4 seed.  Can we just put the entire Big 12 on the 5-6 lines?

Dayton 74, @Davidson 73 - Davidson has really only been projected in the field as a conference leader.  Don't be fooled by the aggregate listings on Bracket Matrix...I think they're not really being listed as a possible at-large anywhere.  And this loss is a fatal blow to those chances
@VCU 76, Rhode Island 42

@Buffalo 114, Ohio 67 - but Bowling Green also wins and will continue to rep the MAC in the projections

2/18 recap

Virginia 64, @Virginia Tech 58 - UVa is making it really difficult for any other team to wedge into #2 overall on the S-Curve right now.  VT showing they truly belong on a tier behind of the top ACC teams
@Wisconsin 64, Illinois 58
Kansas St 65, @West Virginia 51 - road wins are never trivial
@Oklahoma St 68, TCU 61 - and this is why road wins are never trivial.  Pretty dumb loss to take, but I think TCU has a bit of wiggle room.  Their schedule is pretty tough though, so they can certainly spend that wiggle room very quickly

2/18 S-CURVE

The 1 line:  Duke, Virginia, Tennessee, Gonzaga
The 2 line:  Kentucky, Michigan St, North Carolina, Michigan
The 3 line:  Marquette, Kansas, Houston, Purdue
The 4 line:  Nevada, Iowa St, LSU, Texas Tech
The 5 line:  Louisville, Wisconsin, Virginia Tech, Kansas St
The 6 line:  Villanova, Maryland, Florida St, Iowa
The 7 line:  Mississippi St, Cincinnati, Buffalo, Washington
The 8 line:  TCU, Syracuse, St John's, Ole Miss
The 9 line:  Baylor, Wofford, Auburn, Seton Hall
The 10 line:  Ohio St, VCU, Texas, Minnesota
The 11 line:  Central Florida, Arizona St, Oklahoma, North Carolina St, Utah St, Temple
The 12 line:  Davidson, Lipscomb, Belmont, Hofstra
The 13 line:  New Mexico St, Old Dominion, Vermont, Yale
The 14 line:  Bowling Green, Texas St, Northern Kentucky, UC-Irvine
The 15 line:  South Dakota St, Montana, Missouri St, Radford
The 16 line:  Bucknell, Sam Houston St, Canisius, St Francis(PA), Prairie View A&M, Norfolk St

Next 4 in:
Texas
Minnesota
Central Florida
Arizona St

Last 4 in:
Oklahoma
North Carolina St
Utah St
Temple

Last 4 out:
Florida
Alabama
Clemson
Davidson*
Lipscomb*
Belmont*
Butler

Next 4 out:
Furman
UNC-Greensboro
St Mary's
Indiana

Break it down!:
Big 12 8
B1G 8
ACC 8
SEC 6
Big East 4
AAC 4
Pac-12 2
MAC 2
A-10 2
MWC 2

2/17 recap

Houston 85, @Tulane 50
@Cincinnati 72, Wichita St 62

@Michigan St 62, Ohio St 44

@St John's 71, Villanova 65 - hey now, a signature win
Seton Hall 81, @Creighton 75 - and a not half-bad road win.  Big East creeping slowly towards having 4 teams safely in

2/16 recap

@Kentucky 86, Tennessee 69 - well that's one way to erase the LSU loss.  Probably back to the top 2 seed.  Tennessee is safe on the 1 line for now, don't worry
LSU 83, @Georgia 79 - road wins are never trivial
Auburn 64, @Vandy 53 - as I said, road wins are never trivial
Florida 71, @Alabama 53 - seriously Florida, just go away.  But now that we're here, are they back in the field?
@Ole Miss 75, Mizzou 65
Mississippi St 77, @Arkansas 67

@Duke 94, NC St 78
@Virginia 60, Notre Dame 54
UNC 95, @Wake 57
@Louisville 56, Clemson 55 - that's the signature win Clemson needed to have realistic bubble hopes.  Shame
Florida St 69, @Georgia Tech 47
Virginia Tech 70, @Pitt 64

@Michigan 65, Maryland 52 - a sorely needed win to hang onto the 2 line for Michigan
@Purdue 76, Penn St 64
Iowa 71, @Rutgers 69
@Minnesota 84, Indiana 63
@Nebraska 59, Northwestern 50

@Kansas 78, WVU 53
@Texas Tech 86, Baylor 61
Iowa St 78, @Kansas St 64 - it's so unusual seeing the Big 12 leader have the 4th best resume.  This'll hurt K-State a bit given there's a lot of competition on the 4-7 lines.  Iowa St creeping towards the 3
Oklahoma 71, @TCU 62 - biggest win of the day.  Oklahoma needs to just simply avoid losses at this point (by that I mean they really don't need more signature wins).  They need loss avoidance.  This is a big one
@Texas 69, Oklahoma St 57

Xavier 75, @Providence 61
@Butler 91, DePaul 78

Washington 72, @Washington St 70
Arizona St 98, @Utah 87 - hey now:  an honest-to-goodness quality road win!  This does mean we can cross off Utah probably for good, but hey, ASU!  quality road win!
@Oregon St 72, Oregon 57 - the role of hail-mary 3rd Pac-12 team now belongs to OSU

@UCF 79, Memphis 72
Temple 70, @USF 69

Gonzaga 79, @San Diego 67 - conspiracy theory time!  Remember the committee rankings, and their bracket?  Their west regional was soft compared to the other regionals.  Part of that is the weakest 1 seed being Gonzaga.  Well what if Gonzaga was seeded as the best 2nd seed instead?  That would fix the problem.  I'm not saying, but I'm just saying
BYU 70, @Loyola Marymount 62
San Francisco 68, @Portland 63 (OT)
@St Mary's 72, Pepperdine 65
Nevada 82, @Wyoming 49
Utah St 76, @Air Force 62
Fresno St 81, @New Mexico 73
VCU 69, @Dayton 68 - this is just about as good a win as is available in the conference right now
@Furman 96, VMI 62
@Wofford 80, UNC Greensboro 50 - this definitively solves the SoCon bubble situation.  Wofford most definitely in play, everyone else just about done
Lipscomb 83, @Kennesaw St 67
@UNC Wilmington 87, Hofstra 79 - this case is dead
Belmont 93, @Tennessee Tech 65

2/16 S-CURVE

I don't know; you tell me what to do with the bubble.  The good news is that it will naturally constrict over the next month, but that's a motley group of teams in and around the bubble right now.  It's not hard to see why that's the case; the 5-7 lines are very strong IMO.  They're vacuuming up all the wins, leading to a strong middle of the field but a weak back end.

The 1 line:  Duke, Tennessee, Virginia, Gonzaga
The 2 line:  Michigan St, Kentucky, North Carolina, Michigan
The 3 line:  Marquette, Kansas, Houston, Purdue
The 4 line:  Nevada, LSU, Louisville, Iowa St
The 5 line:  Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Kansas St, Villanova
The 6 line:  Virginia Tech, Maryland, Florida St, Iowa
The 7 line:  TCU, Mississippi St, Cincinnati, Buffalo
The 8 line:  Syracuse, Ole Miss, Baylor, St John's
The 9 line:  Washington, Wofford, Ohio St, Auburn
The 10 line:  Seton Hall, VCU, Minnesota, Texas
The 11 line:  Alabama, Arizona St, Lipscomb, North Carolina St
The 12 line:  Central Florida, Utah St, Oklahoma, Indiana, Belmont, Davidson
The 13 line:  Hofstra, New Mexico St, Yale, Old Dominion
The 14 line:  Vermont, UC-Irvine, Loyola(Chi), Texas St
The 15 line:  Northern Kentucky, South Dakota St, Montana, Radford
The 16 line:  Bucknell, Sam Houston St, St Francis(PA), Canisius, Prairie View A&M, Norfolk St

Next 4 in:
Texas
Alabama
Arizona St
North Carolina St

Last 4 in:
Central Florida
Utah St
Oklahoma
Indiana

Last 4 out:
Butler
Clemson
Florida
Temple

Next 4 out:
Furman
UNC-Greensboro
Nebraska
St Mary's

Break it down!:
B1G 9
ACC 8
Big 12 8
SEC 7
Big East 4
AAC 3
Pac-12 2
A-10 2
MWC 2

2/15 recap

Buffalo 88, @Toledo 82 - a quality road win, and it helps alleviate any potential disaster scenario where UB misses the tourney entirely
@Davidson 80, St Joe's 72

2/14 recap

Illinois 63, @Ohio St 56 - luckily, given the current state of the bubble, OSU is still a couple dumb losses away from true trouble.  But given how strong the 5-6-7 lines are, their seed ceiling keeps getting lowered

@Utah 83, Arizona 76 - is Utah the 3rd best team in the Pac-12?  Yikes

Houston 71, @UConn 63

Gonzaga 73, @Loyola Marymount 60
BYU 88, @San Diego 82
@San Francisco 89, Pepperdine 77
St Mary's 66, @Santa Clara 55 - so who is the 2nd best team in the WCC?  I'm not sure the answer matters, but based on the computer numbers, both BYU and St Mary's can at least make hail mary-like claims to a spot on the bubble.  I can't imagine either will matter by mid-March, but they're lurking

@Wofford 95, VMI 84
@East Tennessee St 91, Citadel 83
@Furman 57, UNC Greensboro 57 - UNCG needed this one to get into realistic at-large range; a quality road win would've done it.  As is, looks like both these teams are solid NIT teams right now but are running out of time to add quality wins to their resume.  Might be Wofford or bust for the SoCon at-large picture.  I really don't want that to be true, though

Hofstra 99, @Charleston 95 - this should put the CAA on ice.  I don't think they'll get there, but I wouldn't object to some Hofstra bubble talk.  Northeastern also won, and is in legitimate NIT at-large bid talk
Belmont 77, @Tennessee St 66 - Murray St keeps pace with Belmont, beating Austin Peay.  We're headed for another Belmont/Murray St showdown in a conference final, and Belmont has reasonable at-large hopes if they lose that.  Murray St probably doesn't, and is probably on the NIT bubble

2/13 recap

@Tennessee 85, South Carolina 73
Ole Miss 60, @Auburn 55 - quality road win for Ole Miss, makes me feel a little better about putting them in.  Auburn's attention needs to turn from seeding to just plain making the field at this point
@Florida 66, Vandy 57 - I almost kind of wish Florida would eject from this season and make my job easier.  I guess they've got to stay around the bubble, but I'm not excited about it

@Villanova 85, Providence 67
@Seton Hall 90, Georgetown 75 - starting to feel pretty strongly we'll have a 4 bid Big East.  Combining St John's, SHU, and Butler's at large chances, it should add up to around 200%
@Xavier 64, Creighton 61 (OT)

Texas Tech 78, @Oklahoma St 50

@Florida St 88, Wake Forest 66
@Virginia Tech 76, Georgia Tech 68
@Miami 65, Clemson 64 - well this is a pretty crappy loss to absorb when you're a new bubble team.  Clemson's profile is pretty barren as is
@NC State 73, Syracuse 58 - the most critical of service holds for NCSU at home.  I still don't know what they can do to hide their non-con SoS, though

Rutgers 59, @Northwestern 56
@Nebraska 62, Minnesota 61 - looks like Minny will be resignated to bubble status for the duration of the season

UCLA 75, @Cal 67 (OT)
@Colorado 77, Arizona St 73 - I give up
@Stanford 79, USC 76

@UCF 78, USF 65
@Temple 82, SMU 74 - service holds in the AAC

@VCU 81, Richmond 60

Liberty 74, @Lipscomb 66 - a signature road win!  Liberty isn't really close to the bubble....but Lipscomb was.  Margin of error is pretty close to zero when you're in the A-Fun, and this definitely used all of it up.  Still not ready to discard Lipscomb from at-large discussion
@Utah St 76, Wyoming 59
@Fresno St 65, Boise St 63

2/12 recap

Duke 71, @Louisville 69 - probably pushes UL off the 2 line for the rest of this year
@BC 66, Pitt 57 - NIT bubble game!

LSU 73, @Kentucky 71 - well I feel a lot better about seeding LSU high.  Signature road wins usually require a serious bump.  I'm thinking 4 line at the moment.  And if nothing else, LSU has turned the SEC into a 3-team conference, with all 3 in position for a protected seed
@Mississippi St 81, Alabama 62
@Missouri 79, Arkansas 78 - endgame for Arky's chances

@Penn St 75, Michigan 69 - this might push UM's chances at the 1 line too far out.  Pretty stout competition as I don't see how MSU, UT, Duke, or UVa come back to the pack given how they're playing.  And this loss will likely look worse than any single loss on any 1 seed contender's resume
Michigan St 67, @Wisconsin 59 - and with this, I do feel like MSU will be the B1G team with a serious chance at the 1 line now.  Starting to amass too many quality wins to ignore
@Maryland 70, Purdue 56 - I thought the committee was too aggressive with Purdue's seed; I expect an adjustment, even though this isn't a bad loss.  Tough to say what to do with Maryland; if you look at the 4-7 lines, the candidates for those spots are numerous.  Not a lot of spots to move up

Kansas St 71, @Texas 64 - tough ask, but Texas needs to plain old win games at this point

Marquette 92, @DePaul 73 - believe it or not, this is a win with some nutritional value this year
@St John's 77, Butler 73 (OT) - Butler has the same problem Texas has.  At some point, the raw number of wins you have matter, and 14 is low this time of year

Buffalo 76, @Akron 70
Davidson 79, @Fordham 69

2/11 recap

Virginia 69, @North Carolina 61 - Leads me to think the ACC is going to coast to two teams on the 1 line, and UNC distinctly trapped behind UVa and Duke (until they play Duke 2x).

Kansas 82, @TCU 77 (OT) - not really confidence boosting for Kansas, but still a very reasonable shot at the 2 line
@Baylor 59, Oklahoma 53 - we can't put Oklahoma in.....right?  I mean, there's a breaking point with conference record, there just has to be

2/11 S-CURVE

The 1 line:  Duke, Tennessee, Gonzaga, Virginia
The 2 line:  Kentucky, Michigan, North Carolina, Michigan St
The 3 line:  Purdue, Marquette, Houston, Kansas
The 4 line:  Nevada, Iowa St, Louisville, Wisconsin
The 5 line:  Texas Tech, Villanova, Maryland, LSU
The 6 line:  Kansas St, Florida St, Virginia Tech, Iowa
The 7 line:  TCU, Mississippi St, Cincinnati, Buffalo
The 8 line:  Syracuse, Washington, Ohio St, Auburn
The 9 line:  Ole Miss, Baylor, Wofford, St John's
The 10 line:  Minnesota, Seton Hall, Texas, Alabama
The 11 line:  Oklahoma, VCU, Arizona St, North Carolina St, Butler, Clemson
The 12 line:  Lipscomb, Belmont, Davidson, Hofstra
The 13 line:  New Mexico St, Old Dominion, Yale, Vermont
The 14 line:  Bowling Green, Loyola(Chi), South Dakota St, UC-Irvine
The 15 line:  Northern Kentucky, Bucknell, Montana, Radford
The 16 line:  Sam Houston St, Texas-Arlington, St Francis(PA), Monmouth, Prairie View A&M, Norfolk St

Next 4 in:
Texas
Alabama
Oklahoma
VCU

Last 4 in:
Arizona St
North Carolina St
Butler
Clemson

Last 4 out:
Central Florida
Utah St
UNC Greensboro
Indiana

Next 4 out:
Temple
Florida
San Francisco
Arkansas

Break it down!:
ACC 9
Big 12 8
B1G 8
SEC 7
Big East 5
AAC 2
Pac-12 2
MAC 2
A-10 2

2/10 recap

@Houston 65, Cincinnati 58 - I really don't quite know what to do with Cincy right now
@Iowa 80, Northwestern 79
Ohio St 55, @Indiana 52 - and I really, really don't know what to do with Indiana.  I mean, they're out, but how far out now?
UCF 71, @SMU 65 - mandatory road win to stay in it
@Oregon 69, Stanford 46

2/9 recap

VCU 85, @St Bonaventure 55 - Davidson absorbs a pretty stupid loss at UMass, so VCU is back on top in the A-10

Duke 81, @Virginia 71 - If UVa doesn't lose to anyone other than Duke, do they stay on the 1 line?
@North Carolina 88, Miami 85 (OT)
@Clemson 59, Virginia Tech 51 - time to sweat VT's seed a bit.  They quite possibly could be 6th in the ACC
@Florida St 80, Louisville 75 (OT) - not gonna move either team's seed that much, based on this result
@Syracuse 67, BC 56
NC St 79, @Pitt 76 - road wins are never trivial

@Lipscomb 86, Jacksonville 77

@Tulsa 76, Temple 58 - oof

@Kansas 84, Oklahoma St 72
TCU 92, @Iowa St 83 - signature road win, and a good way to jump up a seed line.  Iowa St maybe loses a seed line here, as the competition on the 3-5 lines is pretty close IMO
Texas Tech 66, @Oklahoma 54 - at some point, even if you're a good team, you take on too much water in the boat and it sinks
Kansas St 70, @Baylor 63 - reality check:  Baylor was never truly safely in the field, and it's time to recalibrate accordingly.  K-State's seed is getting interesting too, because they could easily win the Big 12 and have, say, the 4th best resume
Texas 75, @WVU 53

@Marquette 66, Villanova 65
Butler 73, @Georgetown 69 - critical road win
Providence 70, @St John's 56 - a pretty crappy home loss to absorb
@Seton Hall 63, Creighton 58 - I just don't know what to do with the entire conference.  Someone behind MU and Nova is getting an at-large bid (maybe 2 of them), but I'll be damned if I know which ones.  This is getting silly.
DePaul 74, @Xavier 62 - DePaul is t3 in the conference.  Go to hell, Big East.

@Michigan 61, Wisconsin 52
@Michigan St 79, Minnesota 55
@Purdue 81, Nebraska 62

@Buffalo 90, Central Michigan 76 - Bowling Green lost to Toledo, getting UB back to even in the conference race at least

@Nevada 91, New Mexico 62
@San Diego St 68, Utah St 63 - USU got the tougher roadie at Fresno, but not this one.  Go figure

Belmont 96, @Morehead St 86

Washington St 69, @Arizona 55 - Wazzu sweeps their Arizona trip.  lolololololol
@Arizona St 75, Washington 63 - for the love of God, at least finish 2nd in this conference ASU
@Oregon St 79, Cal 71
Utah 93, @UCLA 92

@Tennessee 73, Florida 61
Kentucky 71, @Mississippi St 67 - ok, now we can get serious about UK and the 1 line
@LSU 83, Auburn 78
Ole Miss 80, @Georgia 64 - road wins are never trivial
@South Carolina 77, Arkansas 65 - and this is why
Alabama 77, @Vandy 67

@Wofford 83, Western Carolina 56
UNC Greensboro 78, @Chattanooga - 13-0 Wofford, 11-1 UNCG, Furman beats ETSU and both at 9-4.  Things holding to form in the SoCon

@Gonzaga 94, St Mary's 46 - this conference race is over

2/9 BRACKET

One interesting side effect - despite Nevada being the top 4 seed, they get kicked out East.  The B1G and BEast conflicts in the top three lines force Villanova into the West regional in that spot.  You really got to get to the top of the 3 line to control your geographic destiny.

EAST 33
@Columbia
1) Duke vs. 16) Robert Morris/Norfolk St
8) Auburn vs. 9) Baylor
@San Jose
4) Nevada vs. 13) Vermont
5) Maryland vs. 12) Hofstra
@Hartford
3) Marquette vs. 14) Harvard
6) Florida St vs. 11) Temple/VCU
@Des Moines
2) Michigan St vs. 15) Radford
7) Cincinnati vs. 10) Alabama

WEST 36
@Columbus
1) Michigan vs. 16) Sam Houston St
8) Buffalo vs. 9) Ole Miss
@Salt Lake City
4) Villanova vs. 13) New Mexico St
5) Texas Tech vs. 12) Lipscomb
@Jacksonville
3) Louisville vs. 14) Northern Kentucky
6) LSU vs. 11) Wofford
@Salt Lake City
2) Gonzaga vs. 15) Montana
7) Washington vs. 10) Oklahoma

MIDWEST 32
@Columbus
1) Tennessee vs. 16) Texas-Arlington
8) Syracuse vs. 9) Minnesota
@Hartford
4) Purdue vs. 13) Bowling Green
5) Virginia Tech vs. 12) Belmont
@Tulsa
3) Kansas vs. 14) Loyola(Chi)
6) Iowa vs. 11) Butler
@Jacksonville
2) North Carolina vs. 15) Bucknell
7) Mississippi St vs. 10) Texas

SOUTH 34
@Columbia
1) Virginia vs. 16) Monmouth/Prairie View A&M
8) St John's vs. 9) Ohio St
@San Jose
4) Wisconsin vs. 13) Old Dominion
5) Iowa St vs. 12) Davidson
@Tulsa
3) Houston vs. 14) UC Irvine
6) Kansas St vs. 11) Indiana/North Carolina St
@Des Moines
2) Kentucky vs. 15) South Dakota St
7) TCU vs. 10) Seton Hall

2/9 S-CURVE

Modest update.

The 1 line:  Duke, Virginia, Tennessee, Michigan
The 2 line:  Kentucky, North Carolina, Gonzaga, Michigan St
The 3 line:  Kansas, Louisville, Houston, Marquette
The 4 line:  Nevada, Purdue, Villanova, Wisconsin
The 5 line:  Virginia Tech, Texas Tech, Maryland, Iowa St
The 6 line:  LSU, Iowa, Kansas St, Florida St
The 7 line:  Mississippi St, Cincinnati, TCU, Washington
The 8 line:  Buffalo, Syracuse, St John's, Auburn
The 9 line:  Ohio St, Baylor, Minnesota, Ole Miss
The 10 line:  Seton Hall, Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama
The 11 line:  Wofford, Butler, Indiana, Temple, VCU, North Carolina St
The 12 line:  Belmont, Lipscomb, Davidson, Hofstra
The 13 line:  New Mexico St, Bowling Green, Old Dominion, Vermont
The 14 line:  Harvard, UC Irvine, Northern Kentucky, Loyola(Chi)
The 15 line:  South Dakota St, Bucknell, Montana, Radford
The 16 line:  Sam Houston St, Texas-Arlington, Robert Morris, Monmouth, Prairie View A&M, Norfolk St

Last 4 in:
Indiana
Temple
VCU
North Carolina St

Last 4 out:
Arizona St
Utah St
Central Florida
Florida

2/8 recap

Not much here. Yale holds home court over Princeton, so the Ivy race is in the balance again.  Long way to go though. 

St Louis loses at St Joe's.  Ye Gods. 

2/7 recap

Iowa 77, @Indiana 72 - whatever
@Ohio St 74, Penn St 70

Washington St 91, @Arizona St 70 - what
Washington 67, @Arizona 60 - please if there is a God let Washington win this conference tourney.  Let's do this.  It feels real for the first time right now.  If they can bury ASU too...
Stanford 83, @Oregon St 60 - just in case you were looking for a new Pac-12 team to bandwagon

@Gonzaga 92, San Francisco 62 - probably time to accept the inevitability of a 1-bid WCC now.  USF just can't make a reasonable case right now
@St Mary's 78, Pacific 66

Houston 77, @UCF 68 - critical blow to the AAC; UCF (and everyone else) might have too far to go to get an at-large bid now.  Quality win chance by the boards
Cincinnati 69, @Memphis 64 - the one bit of good news is that their two teams will be seeded high

@UNC Greensboro 75, Samford 67
Wofford 78, @East Tennessee St 76 (OT) - this will go down as a very quality win, and now we've got something legitimate with Wofford's at-large chances.  They have every key factor in play, including a very strong top of the rest of the conference, meaning a loss in the conference tourney won't be as damaging.  We've also got a bit of separation in the standings as Wofford and UNCG have shaken ETSU and Furman loose

@Hofstra 102, Elon 61
Belmont 83, @Eastern Kentucky 65
@Murray St 86, Eastern Illinois 75 - one minor annoyance:  Austin Peay hanging around in the conference race, tied with the usual two suspects
New Mexico St 71, @Cal St-Bakersfield 70 (OT)

2/6 recap

@Villanova 66, Creighton 59 (OT)
Georgetown 76, @Providence 67 - is Georgetown relevant?  It's not an impossible road...

@Texas 84, Baylor 72 - a desperately needed service hold for Texas.  They have a problem with the raw accumulation of losses, they need to win more than their fair share of swing games
@TCU 70, Oklahoma St 68

Wisconsin 56, @Minnesota 51 - quality road wins matter
Maryland 60, @Nebraska 45 - oy.  What happened to Nebraska

LSU 92, @Mississippi St 88 (OT) - this is a notable result, from a seeding perspective
@Ole Miss 75, Texas A&M 71
@Alabama 89, Georgia 74

Clemson 65, @Georgia Tech 42 - Clemson lurking in the background
@Miami 62, Notre Dame 47

Nevada 98, @Colorado St 82
@Temple 81, UConn 63
@Davidson 68, Rhode Island 53 - all the A-10 can hope for now is for separation at the top, creating a extra quad 1 game for somebody's resume.  Mason and Duquesne lost, so that helps
VCU 60, @George Washington 50
Lipscomb 92, @North Florida 55
Colorado 84, @UCLA 73
@Oregon 73, Cal 62
Utah 77, @USC 70

2/5 recap

@Tennessee 72, Missouri 60
@Kentucky 76, South Carolina 48
@Auburn 76, Florida 62
@Arkansas 69, Vandy 66

@Duke 80, BC 55
@UNC 113, NC State 96
Florida St 80, @Syracuse 62 - quality road wins are tough to come by.  They're a tough team to see, partly because of so many upper-end ACC teams in the mix
@Wake 78, Pitt 76 (OT) - I can't believe Pitt was even in the proximity of the bubble a couple weeks ago

Michigan 77, @Rutgers 65
@Illinois 79, Michigan St 74 - what

St John's 70, @Marquette 69 - signature road win!  We have a clear #3 team in the Big East, finally.  I would hope SJU can hold onto the wheel from here

@Kansas St 74, Kansas 67 - well, my Kansas take looks slightly dumber now.  It's still such a weird resume to try and evaluate.  But I may have to put Gonzaga back on the 2 line ahead of them now

@St Louis 73, Dayton 60 - SLU finding form just in time to screw up the resumes of the other contending teams now
Utah St 82, @Fresno St 81 - cannot overstate how important this one is.  Best non-Nevada win available in the conference.  USU is in play on the bubble now

MACwatch:  Bowling Green wins again and will continue to rep the MAC in the bracket.  It does seem like the conference as a whole is good enough to beat Buffalo in the conference tourney, and we'll FINALLY get the at-large bid out of the MAC I've literally been waiting 2 decades for.