There's still a whiff of projection in these brackets but the smell will subside over time. Here's a refresher on our autobid rules: conference leader is projected in no matter what. In case of ties, we'll employ head-to-head if available, and use RPI if not available. It leads to some funky entries early.
- St Mary's gets the early nod for WCC autobid, they're right on the bubble
- Tulsa backdoors into the bracket this week as the AAC leader...this won't last
The 1 line: Duke (13-1), Michigan St (15-1), Villanova (13-1), Oklahoma (12-1)
The 2 line: Arizona St (12-2), Xavier (15-1), Virginia (13-1), West Virginia (13-1)
The 3 line: Kentucky (12-2), Purdue (14-2), North Carolina (12-3), Arizona (12-3)
The 4 line: TCU (13-1), Kansas (11-3), Seton Hall (13-2), Florida St (12-2)
The 5 line: Wichita St (12-2), Texas A&M (11-3), Texas Tech (13-1), Cincinnati (13-2)
The 6 line: Clemson (13-1), Arkansas (11-3), Miami (12-2), Butler (12-4)
The 7 line: Tennessee (9-4), Gonzaga (13-3), Creighton (12-3), Nevada (14-3)
The 8 line: Notre Dame (11-3), Auburn (13-1), Rhode Island (10-3), Florida (10-4)
The 9 line: Michigan (12-3), Minnesota (13-3), Texas (10-4), Louisville (11-3)
The 10 line: UCLA (11-4), Missouri (10-3), Syracuse (12-3), Maryland (12-4)
The 11 line: St Mary's (14-2), Boise St (12-2), Ohio St (12-4), SMU (12-4), Utah (10-4), New Mexico St (10-3)
The 12 line: Missouri St (12-3), Middle Tennessee (9-4), Tulsa (10-5), William & Mary (8-4)
The 13 line: Buffalo (8-5), South Dakota (11-4), Lipscomb (7-5), Belmont (11-5)
The 14 line: Vermont (9-5), UC-Davis (8-5), East Tennessee St (9-4), Louisiana (11-3)
The 15 line: Northern Kentucky (8-5), Princeton (7-7), Radford (7-6), Montana St (8-6)
The 16 line: Canisius (9-7), Robert Morris (9-7), Bucknell (8-8), New Orleans (3-8), Morgan St (3-9), Texas Southern (2-13)
Next 4 in:
UCLA
Missouri
Syracuse
Maryland
Last 4 in:
St Mary's*
Boise St
Ohio St
SMU
Utah
Last 4 out:
New Mexico St*
Baylor (9-4)
USC (11-5)
St Bonaventure (11-3)
Missouri St*
St John's (9-5)
Next 4 out:
Marquette (11-4)
Mississippi St (12-1)
Houston (12-3)
San Diego St (9-4)
Break it down!:
ACC 9
SEC 7
Big 12 6
B1G 6
Big East 5
Pac-12 4
AAC 4
MWC 2
WCC 2
Quick analysis of the conference breakdowns:
- AAC, thanks to Tulsa, gets to 4 bids. I think this might be their max for the season, it's going to be tough to hold onto 4 bids by March
- Pac-12 with only 4. They're weak, but there's enough wins to go around to get a 4th team, and maybe a 5th team in
- Big 12 only with 6 in this time. Baylor has computer number issues in particular. 6 seems about right, and I'd bet on 7 before 5. Tech fixed a lot of problems with their win, which is a key component of the Big 12 maxing out at 7 bids
- SEC, Big East, and ACC with 7, 5, and 9. These are good over/unders, for the betting type
- Big 10 have 6. This feels like their max. The bottom half of the conference is garbage, and 4 bids is more likely than 7 for them
- I'd be pretty surprised if the Mountain West couldn't get 2 teams in this year. By that same token, same for the A-10, but boy I'd like a 3rd contender to emerge just in case to make it easier on them
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