Friday, January 5, 2018

1/6 S-CURVE

There's still a whiff of projection in these brackets but the smell will subside over time.  Here's a refresher on our autobid rules:  conference leader is projected in no matter what.  In case of ties, we'll employ head-to-head if available, and use RPI if not available.  It leads to some funky entries early.

- St Mary's gets the early nod for WCC autobid, they're right on the bubble
- Tulsa backdoors into the bracket this week as the AAC leader...this won't last

The 1 line:  Duke (13-1), Michigan St (15-1), Villanova (13-1), Oklahoma (12-1)
The 2 line:  Arizona St (12-2), Xavier (15-1), Virginia (13-1), West Virginia (13-1)
The 3 line:  Kentucky (12-2), Purdue (14-2), North Carolina (12-3), Arizona (12-3)
The 4 line:  TCU (13-1), Kansas (11-3), Seton Hall (13-2), Florida St (12-2)
The 5 line:  Wichita St (12-2), Texas A&M (11-3), Texas Tech (13-1), Cincinnati (13-2)
The 6 line:  Clemson (13-1), Arkansas (11-3), Miami (12-2), Butler (12-4)
The 7 line:  Tennessee (9-4), Gonzaga (13-3), Creighton (12-3), Nevada (14-3)
The 8 line:  Notre Dame (11-3), Auburn (13-1), Rhode Island (10-3), Florida (10-4)
The 9 line:  Michigan (12-3), Minnesota (13-3), Texas (10-4), Louisville (11-3)
The 10 line:  UCLA (11-4), Missouri (10-3), Syracuse (12-3), Maryland (12-4)
The 11 line:  St Mary's (14-2), Boise St (12-2), Ohio St (12-4), SMU (12-4), Utah (10-4), New Mexico St (10-3)
The 12 line:  Missouri St (12-3), Middle Tennessee (9-4), Tulsa (10-5), William & Mary (8-4)
The 13 line:  Buffalo (8-5), South Dakota (11-4), Lipscomb (7-5), Belmont (11-5)
The 14 line:  Vermont (9-5), UC-Davis (8-5), East Tennessee St (9-4), Louisiana (11-3)
The 15 line:  Northern Kentucky (8-5), Princeton (7-7), Radford (7-6), Montana St (8-6)
The 16 line:  Canisius (9-7), Robert Morris (9-7), Bucknell (8-8), New Orleans (3-8), Morgan St (3-9), Texas Southern (2-13)

Next 4 in:
UCLA
Missouri
Syracuse
Maryland

Last 4 in:
St Mary's*
Boise St
Ohio St
SMU
Utah

Last 4 out:
New Mexico St*
Baylor (9-4)
USC (11-5)
St Bonaventure (11-3)
Missouri St*
St John's (9-5)

Next 4 out:
Marquette (11-4)
Mississippi St (12-1)
Houston (12-3)
San Diego St (9-4)


Break it down!:
ACC 9
SEC 7
Big 12 6
B1G 6
Big East 5
Pac-12 4
AAC 4
MWC 2
WCC 2

Quick analysis of the conference breakdowns:
- AAC, thanks to Tulsa, gets to 4 bids.  I think this might be their max for the season, it's going to be tough to hold onto 4 bids by March
- Pac-12 with only 4.  They're weak, but there's enough wins to go around to get a 4th team, and maybe a 5th team in
- Big 12 only with 6 in this time.  Baylor has computer number issues in particular.  6 seems about right, and I'd bet on 7 before 5.  Tech fixed a lot of problems with their win, which is a key component of the Big 12 maxing out at 7 bids
- SEC, Big East, and ACC with 7, 5, and 9.  These are good over/unders, for the betting type
- Big 10 have 6.  This feels like their max.  The bottom half of the conference is garbage, and 4 bids is more likely than 7 for them
- I'd be pretty surprised if the Mountain West couldn't get 2 teams in this year.  By that same token, same for the A-10, but boy I'd like a 3rd contender to emerge just in case to make it easier on them

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