1/20 S-CURVE

First longform S-Curve of the year.  Some things to watch:

1) Pressure point #1:  the last 1 seed.  If I'm betting, I think we'll see 4 conference champs of the 4 best conferences be 1 seeds in March (with Purdue subbing in for the SEC champ as it's unlikely we'll get separation in that conference).  This should mean one of Kansas or Oklahoma get there at the expense of either Virginia or Duke (just too many ACC losses are likely for one or both).
2) Pressure point #2:  the 3 line.  I've promoted Auburn and Clemson, as their seeds start to catch up with their resume.  Plus Auburn has a fighting chance at a SEC title.  I would expect a lot of movement the next few weeks though.
3) Pressure point #3:  URI and Nevada.  Conference champs, maybe even dominant ones.  If they do their job, the committee has shown they'll give a modest bump to such teams.  Also watch St Mary's under this clause.
4) And finally, the 7 line.  Ew.  It feels like the bubble starts around the end of this line.  I don't hvae a good feel for how the teams are seeded in the 8-10 range yet.

Specific team/conference thoughts:
- The committee has never liked the AAC.  Cincy and Wichita fans can direct their seed complaints thataway for now.
- WVU and TTU have significant OOC SoS issues, and it could cost the conference
- Creighton's in that same SoS boat, by the way
- Scheduling up is one big key to getting an at-large bid as a mid-major.  Buffalo and Middle Tennessee aced this part.  But you gotta win one.  I'm not even asking for multiple.  Just one.  Gotta get on the board so you have a bargaining chip.  These two teams will feel the pain of that.

The 1 line:  Villanova, Virginia, Duke, Purdue
The 2 line:  Kansas, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Xavier
The 3 line:  West Virginia, Arizona, Auburn, Clemson
The 4 line:  Texas Tech, Michigan St, Kentucky, Cincinnati
The 5 line:  Wichita St, Ohio St, Tennessee, Rhode Island
The 6 line:  TCU, Creighton, Seton Hall, Arizona St
The 7 line:  Miami, Gonzaga, Nevada, Louisville
The 8 line:  Florida, Michigan, Texas, St Mary's
The 9 line:  Butler, Florida St, Arkansas, Missouri
The 10 line:  Marquette, Boise St, Texas A&M, SMU
The 11 line:  Alabama, Syracuse, Notre Dame, Providence, Maryland, UCLA
The 12 line:  Western Kentucky, New Mexico St, Buffalo, Missouri St
The 13 line:  Hofstra, South Dakota St, East Tennessee St, Louisiana
The 14 line:  Wright St, Vermont, Belmont, Cal St-Fullerton
The 15 line:  Canisius, Montana, Penn, Bucknell
The 16 line:  Radford, Robert Morris, FGCU, Nicholls St, North Carolina A&T, Jackson St

Next 4 in:
Texas A&M
SMU
Alabama
Syracuse

Last 4 in:
Notre Dame
Providence
Maryland
Western Kentucky*
UCLA

Last 4 out:
Middle Tennessee
Houston
New Mexico St*
USC
St Bonaventure

Next 4 out:
South Carolina
Georgia
Colorado
Buffalo*
Missouri St*
Kansas St

Bubble inception:  WE NEED TO GO DEEPER
Nebraska
Baylor
Virginia Tech
Minnesota
BYU
Washington
Utah
Central Florida
Loyola(Chi)
Stanford
North Carolina St
BYU
Oregon
LSU
---the NIT bubble traditionally falls around this spot---
San Diego St
Memphis
Oklahoma St
Mississippi St

likely CBI/CIT candidates emerging (many current projected autobids fall into this category as well):
Fresno St
William & Mary
Northeastern
Towson
Toledo
Ball St
South Dakota
Old Dominion
Utah Valley
Wofford
UC Davis
Northern Kentucky

still not incredibly listed because of the most ridiculous non-con resume I've seen in my lifetime:
Georgetown


Break it down!:
ACC 9
SEC 8
Big East 7
Big 12 6
B1G 5
Pac-12 3
AAC 3
MWC 2
WCC 2