Friday, November 13, 2015

The first Bracket Matrix is up

Some quick thoughts as I compare my rankings to everyone else's:

1) Virginia is a consensus 2 seed
I'm okay with this, even though I have them on the 4 line, the lowest of anyone.  My simple retort is one of mathematics.  The ACC is deep and I expect several mid-table teams to pick off games against UNC/Duke/Virginia.  Are there enough wins to go around to create 3 ACC teams on the top 2 lines?  I think Virginia will absorb a couple more body blows in ACC play than the other two teams, and it'll be worth a seeding line or so in March.

2) The Big East
The 2nd highest BEast team on the Matrix is Butler as the last 6 seed, then G'town as the first 7 seed.  If the BEast is as good as I think it is....there's no way their 2nd best team is only the last 6 seed.  They'll be much higher.  I made my bet on Georgetown as that team.  So I think the Matrix is wrong....but I see why the Matrix is off here.  People can't make up their mind as to who Big East #2 is, as Butler and Georgetown have a few 4 seeds and Xavier has a few 5s.

3) San Diego St as a consensus 9 seed, 5 seed here
I feel like SDSU (and Boise) will run away from the rest of the league, and the committee has given 5 seeds (or similar seeds) to teams who run away with conferences like the MWC.  Feels more right than not to start SDSU high.

4) The A-10
The Matrix has 3 A-10 teams in the bracket, but all in the 10-11 seed range.  Its best team on the 10 line?  That seems highly unlikely to me.  This seems to be another case where a lack of consensus hurts the Matrix performance - there seems to be a lot of disagreement on whether any single team can make the tournament.  URI and Dayton are out of several brackets.

5) I know it's hard to do in the preseason, but go look at Wichita's last 2 regular seasons and their current starting backcourt.  They just can't be below the 3 line, right?

6) The Pac-12
One place I might be too aggressive is on the Pac-12.  I count only 2 sure bets (Cal and Arizona).  Well, Utah too, but a step behind.  If the league doesn't supply quality wins, can they get a 3 and 2 seed, respectively?  Maybe.  But the degree of difficulty might be high.

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