Bubble watch: SEC

Lockbox:

Kentucky (24-5) (14-2) NET 14 SoS 80
Vital signs:  8-4 R/N, non-con SoS 161, avg win 117
7-3 vs. Q1, 5-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-MSU, Louisville, @TTU
Bad losses:  Evansville lol.  Also N-Utah

Marginal SoS numbers, but a strong group of Q1 wins.  I'm more inclined to subscribe to the "everybody gets one" thought when it comes to that Evansville loss.  I think the eye test moves them to the 2 line, if they hold serve.

Auburn (24-5) (11-5) NET 28 SoS 23
Vital signs:  8-5 R/N, non-con SoS 22, avg win 104
4-3 vs. Q1, 9-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Kentucky, N-Richmond?  LSU
Bad losses:  @Mizzou and @Georgia are Q2-A, but I suppose they count

A shockingly light resume given the record and SoS.  There's not a lot of impact wins here.  They'll need help in seeding from the eye test...and I don't think they're going to get it.  They feel destined for the 4 line in a western regional.  Doesn't that just seem perfect for this resume?

Bubble:

LSU (20-9) (11-5) NET 32 SoS 13
Vital signs:  6-7 R/N, non-con SoS 8, avg win 117
4-7 vs. Q1, 7-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-URI, @Texas, Florida
Bad losses:  @Vandy

Strong SoS numbers.  Naturally, they lost almost all of their significant non-con games though.  So there's not a lot of meat on the bones.  Just to be safe, don't lose out.

Florida (18-11) (10-6) NET 33 SoS 34
Vital signs:  7-8 R/N, non-con SoS 18, avg win 113
4-8 vs. Q1, 4-3 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Auburn, N-Provi, N-Xavier
Bad losses:  @Mizzou and @Ole Miss technically don't count, but still

3-7 true road record isn't great...they could use one more real quality win to feel safe.  They still have Kentucky in the hopper, and I don't think the resume is good enough to automatically feel safe absorbing a loss there.

Mississippi St (19-10) (10-6) NET 52 SoS 59
Vital signs:  6-8 R/N, non-con SoS 99, avg win 130
2-6 vs. Q1, 5-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Florida, swept Arkansas?  Bama?
Bad losses:  La Tech, N-NMSU counts as a Q3, weirdly

The resume gives the impression they just haven't done enough.  Needed maybe one more Q1 win to help balance out their numbers a bit better.  True borderline case.  No real path to resume improvement in the next week.

South Carolina (17-12) (9-7) NET 63 SoS 65
Vital signs:  6-7 R/N, non-con SoS 96, avg win 138
4-7 vs. Q1, 3-3 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Kentucky, @UVa, @Arkansas?
Bad losses:  Stetson, Boston U

Nominally listed at this point, with a couple key wins in pocket.

Alabama (16-13) (8-8) NET 40 SoS 17
Vital signs:  6-9 R/N, non-con SoS 45, avg win 112
1-7 vs. Q1, 7-4 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Auburn, LSU, Richmond
Bad losses:  Penn, A&M

Really, honestly, just listed because of the NET (and I suppose 7 Q2 wins).  Plenty of home wins (but a couple dumb home losses), and all the losses you'd expect.  Pass.

Arkansas (18-11) (6-10) NET 46 SoS 31
Vital signs:  4-7 R/N, non-con SoS 10, avg win 122
2-6 vs. Q1, 3-5 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Bama, @Indiana
Bad losses:  @WKU, @Mizzou?

3rd straight team with a very, very marginal resume.

NIT watch:
Tennessee (16-13) (8-8) NET 67 SoS 33 - I have to cut off the SEC bubble somewhere.  UT's more or less on the level of the 3 teams above, but without the NET or signature wins in tow.
Georgia (14-14) (5-11) NET 84 SoS 29 - probably shouldn't make the NIT, but we've seen dumber selections before.