Posting on 12/25...with no games until 12/27, damn straight I'm timestamping this S-Curve as 12/27.
The 1 line: Villanova (12-0), Duke (12-1), Michigan St (12-1), Arizona St (12-0)
The 2 line: North Carolina (11-2), Xavier (12-1), Oklahoma (10-1), Texas A&M (11-1)
The 3 line: West Virginia (11-1), Virginia (11-1), Kentucky (9-2), Kansas (10-2)
The 4 line: Purdue (12-2), Wichita St (10-2), Miami (11-1), Arizona (10-3)
The 5 line: TCU (12-0), Seton Hall (11-2), Arkansas (9-2), Gonzaga (10-3)
The 6 line: Florida St (11-1), Cincinnati (11-2), Creighton (10-2), Clemson (11-1)
The 7 line: Notre Dame (9-3), Tennessee (9-2), Louisville (10-2), Maryland (10-3)
The 8 line: Baylor (9-2), Minnesota (11-3), SMU (10-3), Texas (9-3)
The 9 line: Nevada (11-3), Florida (8-4), Oregon (10-3), Butler (10-3)
The 10 line: Michigan (10-3), Alabama (8-4), UCLA (9-3), Rhode Island (7-3)
The 11 line: Boise St (9-2), Syracuse (10-2), Auburn (11-1), St Bonaventure (10-2), Oklahoma St (10-2), St John's (9-2)
The 12 line: Northern Iowa (6-4), New Mexico St (9-3), Middle Tennessee (7-4), Towson (8-3)
The 13 line: UT Arlington (8-4), Buffalo (6-5), South Dakota St (8-5), UC Santa Barbara (9-3)
The 14 line: Wofford (5-4), Portland St (7-3), Belmont (8-5), Vermont (7-5)
The 15 line: Iona (6-6), Penn (7-4), Oakland (8-5), Bucknell (6-7)
The 16 line: Lipscomb (7-4), Stephen F Austin (7-2), UNC-Asheville (5-6), Wagner (5-4), North Carolina A&T (5-7), Texas Southern (0-13)
Next 4 in:
Alabama
UCLA
Boise St
Syracuse
Last 4 in:
Auburn
St Bonaventure
Oklahoma St
USC
Last 4 out:
St Mary's (11-2)
Temple (7-4)
Texas Tech (11-1)
USC (9-4)
Next 4 out:
Missouri St (10-3)
Missouri (9-3)
Virginia Tech (10-2)
San Diego St (7-3)
Break it down!:
ACC 9
SEC 7
Big 12 6
Big East 6
B1G 5
Pac-12 4
AAC 4
MWC 2
A-10 2
Quick thoughts:
- ACC with 9 bids, seems to be a good line to set for an over/under for March bids.
- SEC up to 7 bids. Not convinced it'll stick, but their SoS work as a conference is showing dividends
- Big 12 with 6 bids, seems about right. Everyone is getting fooled by Texas Tech again. So stupid.
- B1G might be in legit trouble. They'll get to 5 bids just because someone has to win these conference games, but that might be their max
- Pac-12 is in trouble, but that's well documented by now, I hope.
- Big East has their typical 6
- Further down, I think A-10 could escape with 2 bids if Bonaventure separates with URI in league play
2 comments:
Not sure which "fools" you are counting in the crowd that are fooled by Texas Tech. 11-1, 10-8 projected conference record on rpiforecast (which uses Sagarin rankings for its projections), ranked #11 in kenpom and should challenge for big 12 title if that holds. I think as many as 8 big 12 teams could get in, which seems crazy, but I think could happen in a league where all 10 teams are expected to be top 100 RPI and currently every league team is top 50 in kenpom except for Iowa St. I think every team in the league will have 8-10 group 1 wins when all is said and done.
I'm definitely in calling-my-shot mode on Texas Tech. With all 10 teams as strong as they are...that means one or two teams are going to lose much more than expected. RPIForecast has 7 teams projected between 10-8 and 7-11...in reality one or two teams will dip below 7-11. Think Tech will be one of them. I'm still using a bit of projection in these until the RPI numbers settle a bit during conference play.
They also have a projected non-con SoS of 242 with no true road games, usually two things that trip the alarm wires with the selection committee. So I'm in the mode of wanting to see it in conference play first.
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